Monday, December 03, 2012

BCS opening lines

The bookies don't think there is an even match in the mix. A couple of the games have wide ranges from casino to casino at this moment, but these odds have a month to settle down.

FSU 8 to 13.5 over NIU. The range shows that oddsmakers don't really know how to handicap this game, but 8 is very low. Northern Illinois’ opponents went a combined 66-101 this season, and FSU likes to run up the score when they have a chance. (They won their first three games 176-3 and had two other wins by 40+ points.) But the FSU advantage is not as clear-cut as I have made it sound. Two of the computer systems used by the BCS had Northern Illinois ranked as high as 12th - in both cases ahead of FSU! It might be time to upgrade those particular computers, but the consensus of the computer systems had FSU 16th and NIU very close to them in 19th place. Sagarin did not agree with the other computer boys. His predictor method shows NIU ranked 41st, and about 9 points worse than FSU on neutral ground.

Florida 14.5 to 16.5 over Louisville. Sagarin's predictor shows Florida 19 points better on neutral ground.

Stanford 6 to 6.5 over Wisconsin. (Sagarin 5)

Oregon 3 to 8 over Kansas State. (Sagarin 2.5). This is another one that the oddsmakers are struggling with.

Alabama 7.5 to 10 over Notre Dame. (Sagarin 6) This game is expected to produce the highest handle in the history of college football. If a bookie makes Alabama a 10 point favorite, he will certainly got some heavy action on Notre Dame.



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