Wednesday, June 01, 2016

GOP Voters Are Rallying Behind Trump As If He Were Any Other Candidate | FiveThirtyEight

GOP Voters Are Rallying Behind Trump As If He Were Any Other Candidate | FiveThirtyEight

In fact, Trump is doing better with the GOP base than John McCain did in 2008, based in both cases upon the month after the nomination was assured.

As one of our commenters mentioned a while back, this tends to make Trump look strong in the national polls, because GOP voters have rallied behind him, but Dem-leaning voters have not rallied behind Hillary. (yet??)

From the site:

"Perhaps it shouldn’t be surprising that Republicans fell in line once Trump clinched the nomination. As the country has grown more polarized, voters have been less willing to cross party lines in presidential elections. Before 2000, no Republican nominee had more than 81 percent of the Republican vote immediately after wrapping up their primary; since 2000, every Republican nominee exceeded that mark."

1 comment:

  1. This one and all others at this point are junk.

    1. He is not the nominee. Normally be would be, but this isn't a normal year. The chance of convention shenanigans still exists.

    2. Hillary isn't the nominee yet. After that convention, when Bernie is a memory, they'll fall in line much stronger than the GOP.

    3. Third party candidates are still in the works. If French jumps in, if Johnson/Weld pick up steam, all of that pulls from trump, not hillary.

    In short, it is way way way too early for this kind of polling to be useful this year.

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