Tuesday, July 26, 2016

2016 Election Forecast | FiveThirtyEight

2016 Election Forecast | FiveThirtyEight

As of the time I posted this (6:00 EDT), Nate Silver's "now-cast" shows that if the election were held today, Trump would have a 54.2% chance of winning.

RCP's summary of polls shows about the same thing - Trump with about a one-point edge.

The two most authoritative individual polls, NBC and Gravis, both of which use large samples and have a margin of error of less than two points, show Clinton up by one and Trump up by two, respectively.

In other words, it could not be more even at the moment. There is not a single recent poll in the RCP summary which shows a candidate even a single point outside the MOE.

(All of the polls influencing these claims use data accumulated during dates which are influenced by the GOP convention. It'll be some time before a clearer picture emerges.)

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