Wednesday, July 27, 2016

2016 Election Now-cast | FiveThirtyEight

2016 Election Now-cast | FiveThirtyEight

The now-cast does not try to forecast November. It is designed to show who would win if the election were held today.

They key state which differs between the now-cast and the forecast is Pennsylvania, which 538 believes will eventually go to Clinton, but which is now leaning toward Trump. I suppose the GOP's pro-coal stance might be helping there.

As of this moment, Trump has a slight edge in four very important swing states: Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania and North Carolina. Hillary has slight leads in Virginia and Michigan. Those six states will probably determine the outcome of this election, although there are seven other states which could still go either way: Georgia, Wisconsin, Colorado, Minnesota, Iowa, Nevada and Connecticut. Most of the other states fall clearly in one camp or another. Let's face it, Trump ain't winnin' DC or Hawaii and Hillary can forget Wyoming.

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