Friday, July 22, 2016

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - General Election: Trump vs. Clinton

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - General Election: Trump vs. Clinton

There are two recent polls of likely voters. Rasmussen shows Trump up by one. The LA Times calls it a dead heat.

The recent polls of all REGISTERED voters show Hillary up by a pretty consistent 4. It's too early to draw any conclusions, and polls are traditionally influenced by conventions, but one thing that seems clear right now is that Hillary would only win today if she could get all the people that prefer her to the polls. It does little good to be preferred by registered voters unlikely to vote.

1 comment:

  1. Worth noting, the current spate of tightening of the race looks to have started on or very shortly after July 7th, ie. the Dallas shootings.

    Unless shootings of police officers at BLM protests become a regular occurrence, I suspect we're looking at an ephemeral Trump bounce that will fade away as the shootings slip out of the popular consciousness in the next month or two.

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