Thursday, July 28, 2016

The USC / LA Times Presidential Election Poll shows Trump gaining during DNC

The USC / LA Times Presidential Election Poll shows Trump gaining during DNC

He has gotten a bit stronger every day this week. That's unusual during an opponent's convention. The current day shows him with a 7-point lead.

538's now cast shows Trump with a 53% chance of winning if the election were held today.

3 comments:

  1. Rasmussen tracking survey showed Hillary Clinton with a
    1% lead with most of their surveying done after Tuesday night.

    It's a mistake to read too much into one poll or one firm.

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  2. Of course you are correct, but (1) this is the first poll that shows Trump with a sizable lead; (2) he improved every day during the DNC, which has to be disturbing for the opposition; (3) just about a month ago, 538's "now cast" was showing Hillary with about a 75% chance of winning.

    ReplyDelete
  3. In the USC/LA Times survey, Hillary did finally cut the lead to 6.1 points yesterday, so there is finally a little convention bump there. (It would be more than one point, because their daily number is a 5-day rolling average.)

    ReplyDelete