Friday, August 26, 2016

Wrigley Field is now one of best pitchers' parks in baseball!

Shocker: Wrigley Field is now one of best pitchers' parks in baseball!

I just noticed this. (I guess I'm a little slow.)

As recently as 2013, it was the second-best hitters' park in the majors, trailing only Coors Field.

Wrigley has always had some variations from year to year, contingent on the prevailing wind conditions. This, however, is no mere fluctuation, but a dramatic turnaround. The 2016 Cubs and their opponents score 16% more runs on the road, and hit 17% more homers. That means that Bryant and Rizzo are actually better than you think. Between them, they have hit 26 homers at home, 32 on the road.

Coors, on the other hand, has gotten even better for hitters. This year it is increasing run scoring by 51% and homers by 40%. That means a player for the Rockies who hits 30 homers and bats in 125 would only hit 25 homers and bat in 100 if he played in a neutral home park. To our eyes, 125 RBI looks like the work of a great slugger, while 100 just looks like a solid guy. Coors, as you probably know, dramatically affects how we perceive certain hitters. Carlos Gonzalez, for example, has hit only 6 homers on the road this year, compared to 17 at home. Arenado splits 14-20, Story 11-16. In OPS on the road, the Rockies rank 23rd in the majors, but their home stats make them seem like a great offensive team. On the other side of the coin, their pitching staff actually ranks 7th in the majors in road ERA, but their home stats (an outrageous 5.87 team ERA!!) make them look like replacement players. Poor Chatwood is 6-1 with a 1.87 ERA on the road, better than Kershaw (4-1 2.29), but his home ERA is 5.43.

No comments:

Post a Comment