Tuesday, September 06, 2016

Election Update: Clinton’s Lead Keeps Shrinking | FiveThirtyEight

Election Update: Clinton’s Lead Keeps Shrinking | FiveThirtyEight

"It’s been toward Trump over the past few weeks. Clinton’s lead peaked at about 8.5 percentage points in early August, according to our models, and Trump has since sliced that figure roughly in half."\

The latest CNN Poll shows Trump leading by two points among likely voters in a four-way race.

The new NBC poll shows Clinton with a four-point lead, but that lead is based on registered voters only, and therefore completely consistent with the CNN result (CNN breaks down both), in which Clinton leads by three among registered voters.

Clinton continues to have a severe drop-off from "registered voters" to "likely voters":
  • In the three most recent polls of likely voters, Trump is ahead by two in CNN, ahead by one in Rasmussen, and is tied with Clinton in IBD. Average: Trump by one.

  • In the three most recent polls of registered voters, Clinton leads by three in CNN (which lists both), by four in NBC, and by two in Fox. Average: Clinton by three.
These numbers indicate that the race may hinge upon logistics - whether Clinton's campaign organization can get enough of her supporters (or Trump opposers) to the polls.


Other tid-bits:

The minor party candidates are not having much of an effect, siphoning off votes almost equally from both majors. Per CNN, Trump leads by one in a two-way race, and by two in a four-way race.

Among voters whose minds are made up, Clinton and Trump are tied at 35 each. At the end of July, Clinton held an eight-point lead in this metric. To be blunt, Clinton had a bad August.

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