Saturday, October 08, 2016

2016 Election Forecast | FiveThirtyEight "Nowcast"

2016 Election Forecast | FiveThirtyEight "Nowcast"

If the election were held today, Trump would have only a 13% chance of winning. That's his lowest nowcast since August 20th. Just as significantly, he is now losing in every single battleground state, even Iowa and Arizona. (This despite the fact that McCain is leading his opponent by double digits in Arizona.)

The "polls plus" algorithm predicts that those two states will come back to Trump, but none of the other battleground states will do so, although Ohio is a toss-up in that it is literally 50.0-50.0, with Hillary winning only when more decimal places are used.

1 comment:

  1. The problem with these types of polls is that they are all 'snapshot' polls. The people answering the questions are answering based on how they feel at the moment the poll is taken. Tomorrow may be different and next certainly will be.