Friday, October 14, 2016

How Evan McMullin Could Win Utah And The Presidency | FiveThirtyEight

How Evan McMullin Could Win Utah And The Presidency | FiveThirtyEight

It is not as far-fetched as it seems.

2 comments:

  1. Total bullshit from a site I usually admire.

    ReplyDelete
  2. The site's been going downhill (and getting more clickbaity) since he got in bed with ESPN.

    "Could be as high as 1-3%" for something that actually looks like a < 0.1% outlier is getting dangerously close to equivocation.

    You also can't quantify the thinking of the establishment members of the GOP House and Senate delegations that you need to get step 3 done, and my reading of the scenario is that every one of them will see that backing McMullin is Middle-Long Term political suicide.

    If the EC is deadlocked and they support McMullin, and they are in a strongly GOP states or districts, they'll be primaried out by enraged Trump supporters, If they are in Swing states and districts, then they'll be voted out by enraged Democrats, Tea Partiers AND Swing voters.

    Going to House in a deadlocked EC at all is guaranteed to make everyone involved a net loser, so I suspect what would actually happen is that SCOTUS would do a repeat of 2000 and declare McMullin invalid in favor of one of the other two.

    ReplyDelete