Monday, October 03, 2016

RealClearPolitics - General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein

RealClearPolitics - General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein

The post-debate polls indicate that Clinton's lead is back up in the 3-5 range. Since the debate, there have been four polls of likely voters which have offered voters a choice of all four candidates.

She picked up four points in the CBS poll (versus their previous poll), from tied to +4.

She picked up seven points in the CNN poll, from -2 to +5.

She picked up two points in Rasmussen's poll, from +1 to +3.

She picked up two in the FOX News poll, from +1 to +3.

So her lead appears to be a hair less than four points, and her average starting point in those four polls was exactly even, so Trump appears to have lost all of those points in the debate itself. In other words, setting personal opinions aside, the man screwed the pooch in that debate.


In 538's "nowcast" analysis, Trump had a 48% chance of winning the election if it had been held on September 26th. That has now dropped to a 20% chance if it were held on on October 3rd.

In 538's poll analysis, the most likely outcome of the popular vote in an election held today is a 4.6 point victory for Clinton. In the electoral college battle, Trump is now behind in EVERY battleground state except Arizona, and the most likely result of today's election would be 320-218.

Their "polls-plus" model forecasts that by the time the election really happens, Clinton's lead will drop to 2.8 points and her most likely electoral vote count is 297, with Iowa, Ohio and North Carolina returning to the Trump camp (although North Carolina and Florida are expected to be very narrow victories for Trump and Clinton, respectively, and should be considered toss-ups.)


  1. Note EVC & snake chart are apples & oranges. If HRC loses FL's 29 EVs to DJT, her 297 drops to 268 & his 241 ups to 270. She can lose NV, but not FL! OTOH, if the election goes exactly according to the snake chart, HRC can lose both FL & NV, & she still wins.

  2. Memory is a wonderful thing. It changes with what you see and/or hear. Immediately after the debate, the polls were saying that Trump won the debate and had jumped out in front of Clinton by as much as 5 points. Now, a couple weeks later and numerous memes stating that Trump lost the debate, the polls are saying he is trailing. This is why the police rarely rely on 'eye witnesses' to a crime.

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