Tuesday, November 01, 2016

538 - Trump creeps above 30% in the nowcast

538 - Trump creeps above 30% in the nowcast

He is now shown to have a slight lead (a tenth of a point) in Florida and North Carolina, as well as a 1.8 point lead in Ohio. The Poll-Plus forecast shows that all three of those states are now expected to go to Trump.

The GOP also has a one in three chance of controlling the Senate.


  1. This polls may show a certain amount of support (and non-support) at a moment in time, but the trend is that Hillary is slipping.

    We may be in for another nail-biter of an election in a week.

  2. The trend is that Hillary got another scandal hit. Let trump open his mouth again or molest a new victim while Hillary has a clean week and the bump will vanish.

    1. And with less than a week to go, how will that happen? Hillary's scandals probably and likely hit "critical mass" levels which would explain a 13 point shift towards Trump in a week's time.