Wednesday, November 23, 2016

Hillary Clinton's Popular Vote Lead Now Over Two Million

Hillary Clinton's Popular Vote Lead Now Over Two Million

On the day after the election, the pundits were asking "why were the polls so wrong?" In fact, they were not. Clinton is 1.5 points ahead in the popular vote. The final RCP pre-election average showed her winning by 3.3. The difference is not as vast as people would have you believe.

One thing the polls missed is the tendency of voters to ignore alternate candidates when the rubber meets the road. Johnson and Stein were supposed to get 6.6%, and they got only 4.3%. So that took 2.3 points out of their totals. The pollsters had no method to forecast that drop-off, and no way to know that Trump would seem to have picked up much more of it than Clinton.

But that's all small potatoes. The real strikeout for the forecasters came in failing to predict what would happen in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

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