Sunday, November 06, 2016

NCAAF College Football Scores - Week 10

NCAAF College Football Scores - Week 10

Note to the playoff selection committee:

Re: that selection of Texas A&M as #4 in the nation ...

How'd that work out for ya?

If you think the committee will learn a lesson from Texas A&M giving up four first-half TDs to a team which came in 3-5, you think wrong. You can bet they will continue to make silly selections throughout the remainder of the year. I wouldn't be surprised if Rutgers snuck into the top four.

There's kind of a problem in the current process in that it seems to have eliminated the traditional concept of second-half sportsmanship among the elite teams. Every team saw what happened in 2014 when Ohio State got in at the last minute because of a big margin, 59-0 over Wisconsin.

(Truth be told, Ohio State actually deserved to be in that group, as they proved by winning both games and a national championship, but 13-0 Florida State did not, as they proved by failing to make even a vaguely respectable showing in the semi-final. Anybody who studied the analytics would have made that determination during the selection process, but the members of the playoff committee ... well, I don't see any math or science majors in that group. They weighed the politics, took the easy route, and let in an undefeated team which had barely survived a weak schedule.)

Now every team playing for the final four is going for the big margin every chance they get: Clemson 54-0, Michigan 59-3, Washington 66-27, Ohio State 62-3. With the exception of Washington, those teams were all leading by at least 4 TDs at the half, but they can no longer afford to let up because they know the playoff selection committee is looking at the scoreboard, and only three of those four teams can get into the top four, given that Alabama is locked in, so the fans of either Ohio State or Washington will be disappointed.

The coaches' poll sees it like this:

Alabama
Clemson
Michigan
Washington
---------
Ohio State
Louisville

The Sagarin computer ranking is slightly different:

Alabama
Michigan
Ohio State
Clemson
---------
Washington
Louisville

The computer ratings tend to be grouped. Alabama, Michigan and Ohio State are all in the 100 range. Then there is a big decline to the next three, which are all around 93-95. Then there is another drop to the others. At least according to his metrics, Ohio State should definitely be in the top group, and the real debate should center on whether Clemson or Washington gets the fourth spot.

No comments:

Post a Comment