Monday, August 21, 2017

The betting odds on Trump resigning or being impeached.

The betting odds on Trump resigning or being impeached.

"According to Irish bookmaker Paddy Power, large sums have begun to be placed on Trump calling it quits, taking the odds into evens, the equivalent of 50 percent. While still not as strong as the odds on Trump being impeached, which currently stand at 4/6, or 60 percent, it still represents a significant shift. A similar move was also witnessed at leading British bookmaker Ladbrokes, which took its odds in from 11/10 to evens."

I'm not a gambler, but if I were, I would bet on him to tough it out.


  1. There's a scenario for this. Beyond the standing one that he just gets tired of being mocked and everyone quits on him. The 25th amendment.

    The thinking is this: an ever-embarrassed GOP goes to him and says they're pulling the 25th on him. He's gotta know if they're going there, they'll have enough clout to get that done. That's a massive humiliation:first president thrown out for literally being batshit. So, he resigns, saving face and the GOP skip either the 25th wrangling or a messy impeachment.

    I'm still sticking with the plan the GOP hatched at the convention: wait for him to do something impeachable (which he did immediately: either Russia or emollients) and impeach him as soon as they get some unpopular stuff passed like obamacare replaced. They say they repent, apologize for letting the right wing take over, and throw everyone connected to him (and some enemies they want gone) out the door. Party reinvented, headed by President pence and vp Ryan with McCain and Graham as torch bearers of the new improved moderate GOP, they go into the midterms with hopes they won't get creamed.

  2. Well, first off, Justin, I think the word you're going for there is emolument, not emollients. Pretty sure it's not an impeachable offense to sell oils. However, that little piece of humor handled, I doubt seriously that the GOP is going to dump him, although I am sure there are members who would want to. The reason for that is something everybody forgets - We, The People, elected Donald Trump and while the polls tell you his popularity is somewhere between -100% and +30%, don't forget, these are the same polls that said he had only about a 3% chance of winning in the first place.

    The GOP, like the Democrats, is made up of politicians, people whose every waking minute is dedicated to being re-elected, not to their jobs and they know that if they were to do something as stupid as forcing out "The People's President", they would likely find themselves on the wrong end of a no-confidence vote in the mid-terms.

    Even though they think, as politicians often do, that We, The People made a mistake, they will be willing to put up with our mistake in order to keep their cushy annual $200K jobs, because in the end run, THAT is the only thing they really care about.