Wednesday, November 08, 2017

Exit polls: This was a message to Trump

Exit polls: This was a message to Trump

"Half of Virginia voters said Trump was a reason for their vote — with twice as many saying they were voting to oppose Trump (34 percent) as to support him (17 percent)."

So the Democrat started with a 17-point edge on issues that had nothing to do with any issues separating him from his opponent. Basically, he didn't need to campaign at all on Virginia-based issues.

And he probably didn't do all that well at it, since he only won by 9, despite that 17 head start. Only 99% of the voters went for one of them, with 1% going to third-party or independent candidates. We know that 51% cast a pro- or anti-Trump vote. That leaves 48% to account for, and they apparently split 28-20 for the Republican. In other words, Virginia voters are not rejecting conservative values at all, but they are directly rejecting Trump.

3 comments:

  1. Edison also claims that half of all Obama-Trump voters from 2016 are non-White, so I'd take their projections with a large grain of salt.

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  2. The problem with that analysis is that the two can't really be disentangled. Those most likely to say they voted on the basis of voting against Trump were most likely liberals or further left progressives (Some refer to supporters of establishment Democrats like Hillary Clinton as 'liberals' while referring to those further left as 'progressives.')

    So, your analysis could be nothing more than essentially "if you take out everybody who voted for the Democrat, the state is very conservative."

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    Replies
    1. More like "if you take out everybody who voted for or against Trump, the state is very conservative."

      But I agree with you in the sense that it is impossible to draw any conclusion without knowing how many of the anti-Trump votes came from conservatives. (I assume that 100% of the pro-Trump votes came from conservatives, but not vice-versa, and we have no way to mine that number from the existing data. I have to think that many independents, even right-leaning ones, case an anti-Trump vote, but I may be far off base.)

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