Thursday, January 11, 2018

Blue-Collar Whites Are Leaving Trump

Blue-Collar Whites Are Leaving Trump

This doesn't matter much, and I'll tell you why. They are not leaving Trump because they are moving leftward ideologically, or returning back to their union-inspired roots in the Democratic party. The opposite. They are disappointed that he hasn't been as racist and backwards as he promised to be. Where's that damned wall?

So his approval rating is declining within the group because he hasn't fulfilled some of his promises. Big deal. On election day, given the choice between Trump and somebody they consider to be a liberal commie pantywaist, they are not going to vote for friggin' Pocahontas or anybody else condemned by Fox News as an obvious descendant of Karl Marx. The angry whites are goin' for Trump, as ordered by Sean Hannity and Rush Limbaugh and their crackpottier cohorts.

If the Dems are gonna beat this Trump dude, they're going to have to erode his base among educated white voters, while making sure that their own natural constituency (millennials, minorities, and of course commie pantywaists) makes its way to the voting booths.

6 comments:

  1. Oh, I don't know. As a Psephologist (person who studies and does scientific analyses of elections), Ron Brownstein is about as good as it gets.

    The midterm elections are up in 2018 before Trump is on the ballot again (if he runs again) and in many of the states with Democratic Senators on the ballot that Republicans are hoping to defeat like Indiana, Missouri, North Dakota, Montana and West Virginia, blue collar voters would be critical to there effort.

    One of the few things Trump told the truth about is that he would get millions of white blue collar voters, especially those in small towns (one industry or declining resource industry towns) who had never voted before or who had only rarely voted to elect him in 2016. (And also even some black or Latino residents of small towns.)

    These may still be Trump voters, but they aren't necessarily natural Republican voters, especially not the (Ayn) Randian 'trickle down' Republicans who dominate Congress.

    What happens in 2020 is harder to say. As always, one election at a time.

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  2. I hate the English language:

    Should say "like Indiana, Missouri, North Dakota, Montana and West Virginia, blue collar voters would be critical to their effort.

    Remember, 'ghoti' is pronounced fish.

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  3. It's not that simple. Way more nuance.

    I have a lot of Christian family members that went trump because they bought the bullshit that he was born again and had left that wicked old past behind.

    All they got? Shithole countries and zero items on their want list.

    A lot of blue collar rural people voted for him because he said he'd protect their way of life.

    What did they get? A bunch of pointless posturing, bullshit, and huge tax breaks to millionaires that hurt small businesses.

    There's a bunch of buyers remorse out there. The racist right are the HAPPIEST with him. Look at Spencer and those jackholes. The people obsessed with immigration see him as trying his best and listen every time he repeats that the wall is coming and Mexico is paying. (he did it just the other day)

    It's the people who bought the "evangelical" nonsense and the "I'll fight for the little guy" bullshit that are bailing. I'm sure a lot are bailing just because they've realized they voted against Hillary and didn't pay enough attention to who they were voting FOR.

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    1. All true, but I don't think that really matters because it skirts around the point: they are still votin' for Trump against Pocahontas. It used to be a 99-1 choice in their heads. Now it's 95-5. This poll only measures their approval, not whether they are likely to vote for him. I think the best we can hope for is that they are disappointed enough that they will stay away from the voting booths, which is not as good as voting for the opposition, but is a helpful step in that direction.

      I wonder if Joe Biden, who is basically a decent man who really seems to care about people, would be able to convince the white blue-collar voters that he really DOES have their interests in mind, and would be able to stay dignified and classy and knowledgeable in a debate against Trump. That kind of thing could persuade a lot of voters. Remember how people were persuaded to vote for the Springfield Monorail. It was just a song - but it was a very good song. Which Democrat can sing the best song?

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    2. Justin, Did your Christian family member really think Trump was a Bible guy now? They must be crazy. Even my Trump obsessed father thought his "Two Corinthians" bit was idiotic.

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    3. Oh God, please not Biden

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