Friday, January 26, 2018

Oscars Best Picture Betting Odds

Oscars Best Picture Betting Odds

And here is how 538 handicaps the awards.

The Shape of Water is the favorite at the moment. I could support Guillermo as the best director. That film is a brilliant work of visual imagination. Best Picture? I guess it depends on your taste. You could make a case for several of the nominated films, but tell ya what - Lady Bird is a good enough film, very charming and occasionally funny, but I can't imagine why anybody would think it was the best film of the year or that Greta was the best director. I completely support Greta Gerwig's writing nomination, but the direction is completely pedestrian: set up a camera and point it at people talking in a room. It can't compare to the work that goes into movies like Darkest Hour, The Shape of Water, Dunkirk, Phantom Thread, Blade Runner 2049, Thor: Ragnarok, and The Post.

(I have not seen Mudbound, so I can't evaluate that one, but it might also belong on that list.)


Here is IMDb's complete list of 2017 films nominated for any Oscar, ranked from highest IMDb score to lowest.

The following list includes only the films eligible for Best Picture. The ones in yellow were actually nominated. Scores in parens are the Metacritic average.

1. Phantom Thread 8.5 (90)
2. Three Billboards 8.3 (88)
3. Call Me By Your Name 8.3 (93)
4. Blade Runner 2049 8.2 (81)
5. Dunkirk 8.1 (94)
6. Wonder 8.1 (66)
7. Logan 8.1 (77)
8. Thor: Ragnarok 8.1 (74)
9. The Greatest Showman 8.0 (48)
10. The Shape of Water 7.9 (86)
11. Lady Bird 7.9 (94)
12. The Disaster Artist 7.8 (76)
13. The Florida Project 7.8 (92)
14. I, Tonya 7.7 (77)
15. Get Out 7.7 (84)
16. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 7.7 (67)
17. Baby Driver 7.7 (86)
18. The Big Sick 7.7 (86)
19. Molly's Game 7.6 (71)
20. The Last Jedi 7.5 (85)
21. The Post 7.5 (83)
22. War for the Planet of the Apes 7.5 (82)
23. Mudbound 7.5 (85)
24. Darkest Hour 7.4 (75)
25. Beauty and the Beast 7.3 (65)
26. Marshall 7.2 (66)
27. All the Money in the World 7.1 (72)
28. Victoria and Abdul 6.8 (58)
29. Kong: Skull Island 6.7 (62)
30. Roman J Israel Esq 6.2 (58)

You can draw a number of conclusions from the numbers, but here are some pretty safe ones:

* Darkest Hour is not worthy of a Best Picture nom, although Oldman is awesome. Several films score higher from BOTH audiences and critics. Blade Runner was more popular by far, with both audiences and critics. (I personally agree with that assessment of Darkest Hour. It's a good movie, not great, and almost manages to make WW2 kinda boring.)

* I know nothing about The Florida Project, but it seems to have been hosed by the Academy. It beats three of the nominees in both the IMDb score and the critics' Metascore.

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