Day: January 19, 2019

The President offers a “compromise” to break the stalemate

Trump said he wants to build in 2019 not a full-length wall, but merely 230 miles of wall, costing $5.7 billion dollars in the 2019 budget. That’s about right, about $25 million per mile. A group of MIT engineers estimated a cost of 27 to 40 million per mile, but that was based on his previous prototypes, which were before the new steel slat design.

So Trump is willing to trade DACA and TPS for only 230 miles of wall material which is probably sorely needed (I would have to hear from the DHS experts to change that “probably” to “definitely” or “definitely not.”) Remember the photographer who shot the entire length of the wall found areas where there was nothing at all to prevent people from simply walking in. Trump may well be right in saying we really do need another 230 miles of barriers.

Note that Trump’s proposal is just that – a proposal. An offer. A negotiation. If the Democrats really want to negotiate in good faith, in my opinion, they should submit a counter-proposal to show the American public exactly where the two sides disagree. If I were in their shoes, the first thing I would demand would be a permanent DACA solution, not a delaying action that will create this same crisis again in three years. That is management by procrastination.

The Dems could really declare a win if they agree to Trump’s deal (with DACA made permanent) by taking control of the narrative and saying – “We did not fund a border wall across the southern border. We only funded 230 miles of barriers in areas that are basically unprotected today.” That would be a major victory over Trump, whose base was expecting a shiny new wall from sea to shining sea, all paid for by Mexico.

And, of course, it would also get the government open again, and government families would again be able to pay their bills.

Just call me the Amazing Kreskin. Here is my prediction.

Trump will offer to make some concessions on other matters in order to get his border wall.

They will be meaningful and realistic concessions of a statesmanlike nature, filled with well-researched key details about where a wall is really necessary, and a willingness to take only the amount needed to build that portion of the wall, in exchange for a deal on the Dreamers. He will also offer a sincere apology for having let the stalemate go on long enough to hurt so many American families and the economy in general. He will establish himself as a compassionate man and great leader who considers the welfare of his fellow Americans more important than his own ego, thus shaming the Democrats quietly and subtly, without his usual insults and ad hominem or ad mulierem arguments.

Just kidding.

This will not be a sincere attempt to end the impasse, but will be yet another political ploy to shift blame for the shut-down. He will offer concessions that the Democrats have already rejected. When they reject them again, he will say “See, the shut-down is the Democrats’ fault. I tried.”

Now he might not do that, but that is exactly what Richard Nixon would do, and Trump frequently uses the Nixon playbook. Nixon never stopped playing politics. There was, however, a major difference between Nixon and Trump: given a choice between ruining the country or ruining himself, Nixon finally chose to step aside in disgrace to let the country heal. It happened after many attempts to lie and deflect and defend his way out of it, but ultimately he spared the country when he finally realized that he really was the dead mouse that had to be swept from America’s kitchen floor, as commentator Nicholas von Hoffman had suggested.

I don’t see Trump ever thinking that a mere country is more important than Donald Trump.

No country. Not even Russia.

That’s where America is now. We have a President with less character than Richard Milhous Nixon. How many of you guys who remember Nixon ever thought that to be even a remote possibility?

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Secondary prediction: when the Dems inevitably reject his insincere offer, Trump will first blame the Dems for the stalemate, let that sink in for a day or two, then have no choice but to play the national emergency card “for the good of the country and the safety of all good Americans.”

“Good Americans,” of course, translates as all white Americans, unless they are gay, or Jewish, or young, or have a vagina, or dislike Hannity.

He will make an exception in the vagina case if they are really hot. We do need to ensure the safety of our precious and endangered national reserve of supermodels.

I am not as confident that Trump will do this portion of the prediction, because it would require him to think two moves ahead (I’ll do this, they will respond like that, so then I’ll do this). I am not confident that he can plan that far in advance. On the other hand, he may end up deciding to do that in anger, even if it is not in his current thinking.