“Trump Approval More Stable Than Approval for Prior Presidents”

Interesting. I never thought about it before, but it makes a lot of sense. Gallup’s theory is that there is almost no success that will allow Trump to win over his opponents, and almost nothing so heinous that it can turn his base against him. Breaking sharply from the trends in past years, only a small portion of the population can be swayed by current events.

“Americans’ approval of the job Donald Trump is doing as president has been highly stable, showing less movement than all previous presidents’ ratings during their first two years in office. His presidency also has been notable for the absence of two historically reliable patterns in presidential job approval — honeymoon periods and rally events. It is possible that Trump … has ushered in a new era of marked stability in job approval ratings resulting from extreme party polarization.”

One of the remarkable facets of the stability of Trump’s approval ratings is this: while his low points fall within the normal range, he has no high points.

LOW points: Trump’s low of 35 is not the lowest on the list, and five other Presidents have dipped into the thirties in their first two years: Clinton, Reagan, Ford, Carter and Truman.

HIGH points: This is where Trump is unusual. Every other president has risen at least to 59 in his first two years. Nine of the Presidents crossed the 70 threshold, and four of them topped 80. Trump’s high is 45. Six former presidents have a LOW point higher than Trump’s HIGH!

As a result of Trump’s lack of high points, his average approval rating for the first two years is BY FAR the lowest in history. He has averaged 39%. The next lowest is 48%. The average for all Presidents is 59%.

I think Gallup may be reaching a hasty conclusion about Trump’s inability to create approval increases through rally events. The fact that he has not done so doesn’t mean it is not possible. I believe he could still get his ratings up with notable successes or acts of statesmanship, the equivalent of killing bin Laden or the Camp David accords. I just don’t know whether he is capable of such acts.

5 thoughts on ““Trump Approval More Stable Than Approval for Prior Presidents”

  1. According to my Facebook feed, Trump is totally selfish and evil and is going to end us all as a nation, if not civilization as we know it.

    Yet, I still wonder if he’s really doing good things but no one’s paying attention or reporting it. That maybe only the bad shit gets reported or spun in such a way to deliberately make him look bad.

    In any case, Trump as president has opened the eyes of many Americans to basic political knowledge. Who else would’ve cared who the Secretary of Education is, or who’s leading the EPA, or the process to appoint a new Supreme Court justice? It’s been an educational experience! And from now on the presidency will be monitored like never before. Assuming we survive until 2024.

  2. If Trump was doing good things, why wouldn’t the right wing media, at least, be reporting those things?

    And no matter what people about the “liberal media elite”, I don’t think the mainstream news is suppressing or slanting news. Sure, there are left-leaning media outlets – but the right has an entire network (Fox News) plus numerous well-known outlets or pundits who do not scruple at lies or blatant distortions.

    But I agree with you – Trump has made people realize that politics, and therefore voting, matters.

  3. My belief for the lack of fluctuation is that Trump is unique in that he was elected for an ideology not an agenda. His hard core followers don’t care about the agenda. They love the break-things/sadism/racism/anti-government ideology he stands for. As long as he’s THAT guy – they’ll love him.

    1. … and almost everyone else will hate him, because they believe that’s why he was elected.

      Yes, I think that echoes Gallup’s point. That’s precisely why there’s little variation.

  4. There’s plenty reporting of the “good” Trump is doing. Mostly it’s relwted to jobs and the wall. I know because my mom lives in rural Texas. I see what her friends are posting on Facebook. And I see what the news looks like out there. There are no scandals. No collusion or investigation issues. It’s a bubble where trump is a bit salty in the way he talks, but dad gummit he’s getting things done. Also, a TON of anti Obama stuff still…two years after he has been out of office. And a few Hillary slams as well. But I can’t stress how big the wall issue is to racist Texans. I see them posting about it every week. For him to stick to his guns and take our country back. Guns and a wall. And maybe a side of pro life for food measure.

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