Trump still trails Biden, but has pulled even with everyone else.

Le Grand Orange is ten points behind Uncle Joe, but is either tied or within the margin of error against the rest of the Fab Five.

Dem and Dem-leaning respondents agree that Biden has the best chance to win. When asked that question directly, they say:

  • Biden 45
  • Sanders 18
  • Harris 9
  • Warren 7
  • Buttigieg 1

The great and wonderful Hickenlooper is below 1%, but not at absolute zero. The group at absolute zero consists of Bennet, Gillibrand, Inslee, Moulton, Swalwell, Yang and that hippie chick. This is definitely not the company Gillibrand wants to be in, so her campaign seems dead in the water. When you are less popular than Bill de Blasio, it’s definitely time to reassess the viability of your candidacy.

Not to mention your life.

The list above does not precisely mirror whom voters personally prefer. Among Dem and Dem-leaning registered voters, the count is:

  • Uncle Joe 30
  • Bernie 19
  • Harris 13
  • Pocahontas 12
  • Mayor Pete 4

Things look very bad for Cory Booker, who has fallen into a tie for 9th with my man Hickenlooper.

9 thoughts on “Trump still trails Biden, but has pulled even with everyone else.

  1. On another matter, in an interesting coincidence, Mish Shedlock is on Coast to Coast AM tonight with George Noory. (starts at 10 PM pacific time.)

    First Half: Investment advisor Michael “Mish” Shedlock offers analysis of the economic landscape including jobs, debt, inflation, the US dollar, the stock market, gold, oil, and the rapidly eroding middle class.

    It’s usually a good 10 minutes of entertainment. Unfortunately the segment is 2 hours long. (I think that’s a joke ‘from’ Stattler and Waldorf on The Muppet Show.)

  2. That’s rich. If it ‘harms America’, when Trump orchestrated the biggest tax cuts for corporations that will add a cool trillion to the deficit over the next decade, which will collapse under the weight of the ridiculousness of trickle-down theory like it did in the last recession, and has ever since the Great Depression.

    Trickle down theory doesn’t work. It’s never worked. It’s a ponzi scheme setup by the wealthy to frame their greed and gluttony as an altruistic act. Keynes said it best, “Capitalism is the astounding belief that the most wickedest of men will do the most wickedest of things for the greatest good of everyone.”

    If we do go into a recession, then every bit of it is thanks to Trump, and Trump supporters – and they deserve every single bit of misery they receive. And I won’t feel a bit sorry for them. They made their bed, they can lie in it.

    1. I agree with some of this. To put it in to language I’m more familiar with and agree with more, what you are referring to is ‘rent seeking’ by corporations. This, if you’re not familiar, is the attempt to increase profits without increasing economic activity, but through either capturing what economists call ‘consumer surplus’ or through ‘socializing expenses’ (aka negative production externalities.)

      This isn’t to say that every corporation in the U.S is bad, but there is no question with the amount of rent seeking that goes on in the United States enabled through lobbying or through corporate propaganda (global warming is a myth! sugar isn’t really unhealthy!) that it pushes all businesses in the same industry to do the same things in order to remain competitive. If one company is going to use the land, air or water as a free source to ‘throw away’ pollution, it places a pressure on other, more reluctant companies to do the same.

      The classic example of this rent seeking is the example economists refer to as jointly ‘the tragedy of the commons’/’the fallacy of composition’ is over-fishing. The tragedy of the commons refers to the idea that anything that is owned collectively can be abused by some individuals if there aren’t rules to prevent them from doing so, and ‘the fallacy of composition’ refers to the logical fallacy that if one person benefits from something, that all people must also benefit.

      The previous example of companies using the environment as a free dumping ground for pollution is the tragedy of the commons. An example of the fallacy of composition often given is that if one person stands up at a concert (without festival seating) to better see the stage, that person benefits. However, if everybody at the concert stands up to better see the stage, it doesn’t follow that everybody benefits.

      Over-fishing fits both in that some people are happy to personally benefit from over using a communally owned resource and, it certainly doesn’t follow that with one person benefiting from engaging in taking more than their quota, that all people would benefit from doing the same. In fact, they quickly destroy the resource.

      So, I’m not convinced we’re in ‘late stage capitalism’ and as much as I disagree with Elizabeth Warren on the amount of spending increases she supports, she is clearly the person running for President who best understands that the excesses of capitalism and capitalists need to be reigned in for, not only the good of society as a whole, but for the good of the capitalists themselves.

      The problem, of course, is that since many of the capitalists under this system involving heavy lobbying are the most wickedest of people, they either don’t realize this, or don’t care.

      There was an article in the Wall Street Journal on how the, primarily, Southern, state strategy of low wages, low taxes and anti union policies were no longer competitive against states that emphasized having an educated working population (not to say many Southerners aren’t educated) that I read some of in an online Louisiana newspaper. Since this was in the business section, the next article, was how the Louisiana business lobbyist organization was saying “the next item we want to see pursued at the state legislature is tort reform.”

      Some people never learn.

      1. I agree for the most part, but the philosophical reason why capitalism sucks will probably never change.

        The inherent problem with trickle down economics is the fact that you’re injecting money into corporations and venture capitalists with the naive idea that they immediately use it to boost infrastructure and create jobs. But that doesn’t happen at all, it’s a fact:

        “The vast majority of American businesses haven’t boosted hiring or investment as a result of the Republican tax law, according to a survey by the National Association for Business Economics.

        Eighty-four percent of businesses said they didn’t accelerate hiring because of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which President Donald Trump hailed as “a bill for the middle class and a bill for jobs.” Only 6 percent said they had more hires because of the law and 10 percent said they accelerated investments, according to the survey.”

        The basis of this idea, is that Republicans believe ‘Reaganomics’ worked because of these idiotic policies, but don’t read any analysis on the actual reasons of what happened and only focus on deregulation and trickle down econ, when it could be explained a lot more logically:

        “Economist Paul Krugman argued the economic expansion during the Reagan administration was primarily the result of the business cycle and the monetary policy by Paul Volcker. Krugman argues that there was nothing unusual about the economy under Reagan because unemployment was reducing from a high peak and that it is consistent with Keynesian economics for the economy to grow as employment increases if inflation remains low.”

        But even then, it could be said that the 80s were the personal computer *boom* era, and the 90s were the Dot Com *boom* era, so at least it could be said there were a lot of ideas and competitors trying to jump into these new industries.

        Now? The corporations and the wealthy hoard the money, use it for acquisitions, or use it to manipulate stock prices by repurchasing stock. There is no infrastructure spending anymore, and since the cuts aren’t dependent on what corporations actually *do* with the money, they can just keep it.

        What that leads to is more wealth for the executives, if they decide to buy back stocks, since their compensation is tied into their stocks. Jobs actually being axed when companies make an acquisition due to ‘redundancies.’ And less consumer choice with higher prices due to a competitors being bought out. All for a heavy price tag to the goverment’s deficit.

  3. “That’s the only way to beat Trump in ’20”

    2018 midterm U.S House aggregate results
    Democrats 53.4%
    Republicans 45.7%

    It seems to me the ones who bled support are the Republicans.

    1. Don’t try to use logic, and numbers, it doesn’t work on their dense skulls. These are the same dumbasses who can’t even think back to what happened in 2008, much less look at what happened way back in the Depression to understand how ignorant their philosophies are.

      But by all means, lets give Jeff Bezos and the Walton family another dozen billion. Maybe they’ll have so much, they’ll use it for toilet paper and we can fish it out of the sewage.

      Hell, that trickle-down theory actually makes more sense than the dumbass brainwashed logic that morons vote for every election.

    2. I made a mistake, it’s actually
      Democrats: 53.4%
      Republicans 44.7%

  4. hard to see why Booker doesn’t get more love…he can be an attack dog, articulate, law school, mayor and senator in a tough state…

    1. He has a reputation for being fake. Overdramatic speeches, but is a corporate shill on the side.

      I think it’s down to four with any shot. Biden, Sanders, Warren, and Harris. Unfortunately in the current complacency, I think Biden takes the nomination.

      However, there are quite a few indications that a recession is on its way. Of course it could be the end of the year from now, or three years from now. If that recession comes before or during the primary, I think Bernie will take it.

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