We are about to enter a period which may someday be viewed as America’s darkest hour since WW2, perhaps worse that WW2 in one sense. At least then we stood united against a common enemy. Now all we do is fight with one another. It’s more like the Civil War.
It appears that Trump will be impeached by the House, so that will be contentious. But even assuming that ends with his “exoneration” by the Senate, don’t forget we are in the midst of the most desperate election in America’s history since Lincoln’s first term. Here’s why. Most Presidents, when they lose their bid for re-election, retire quietly to do good deeds, or maybe just to stay under the radar in private life. But Trump is not most Presidents. Getting re-elected is really the only way he can stay out of jail, because if he loses the election he loses his corrupt control of the DoJ. Moreover, if the DoJ is allowed to base its actions on the law rather than on politics, it could mean jail time for many of Trump’s associates who have defied legitimate subpoenas and questions from Congress, because the DoJ will stop stonewalling the Congress (which has legal authority but no independent enforcement powers). That means many of Trump’s enablers could join him in the calaboose unless they co-operate. To make matters even more difficult, he must not only get re-elected, but he must also retain a very solid Senate to avoid getting removed from office immediately after the election. That means he will become more and more desperate every day. Any poll that shows him losing will also show him getting closer to the Big House, and will ignite a Twitter bombardment.
Oh, yeah. It’s gonna be an angry 14 months between now and that election. And just imagine how crazy things will get between November and January if Trump loses the election but retains power for that last two months.
If Trump considered the good of the country, he would quietly resign and let Pence pardon him of all his evil deeds. The presidential pardon power is absolute when it comes to federal crimes. Twitter would then be free to ban him, since his Tweets would no longer be an official Presidential record. We could all then go on to disagreeing about substantive matters of policy, rather than the incendiary Tweets, racism and criminal actions of our president.
By the way, my opinion is that Mike Pence has handled himself well in an impossible position. He can’t really disagree with Trump publicly. That’s not just a question of loyalty. If Pence seemed to show even the slightest disloyalty, it would seem that he was angling to become President without being elected to the job. And the first person to make that accusation would be Trump, thereby permanently ending Pence’s political career because of the power of Trump’s base. If the two of them were at odds it would be really uncomfortable, because the President can’t fire the Vice-President, although he can render him irrelevant by relieving him of all duties beyond casting the tie-breaking Senate vote. Liberals dismiss Pence as nothing more than a faithful puppy, but I’ve tried to place myself in his shoes and I can’t see what other choice he has. Perhaps he was foolish to run for the world’s worst job, but now he’s doing his best to survive it.
On the other hand, the vice-president is really the only person in the executive branch that can’t be fired by the president, so I’d certainly prefer it if he used that invulnerability power to stand up and tell the absolute truth.
My quick take is that the “Democratic Socialists” don’t amount to more than 20% of the electorate, if that much. And they’re concentrated in states the Democrats will automatically take anyway. Some of them, particularly the legend in her own mind, are more inclined to read people out of the party than to keep the tent big. That’s not how you win an election.
I can see Biden probably winning even though he’ll have the same problem as Clinton did (not an enthusiasm generator), but I can’t see him being as complacent and as bad a campaigner as Clinton was. I can see Warren possibly winning even though I think she is way to the left of most voters on some key issues. I can’t see the Bernie winning under any circumstances.
Oh well enough of this. I have serious work to do – namely flaming Ravens fans at the WAPO. Go Browns!!
Thanks for your reply, Bill Deecee. You may well be right in everything you say. I don’t have any facts to show otherwise. I just think Biden will A) gaffe himself out of victory, and B) come across like Bob Dole in 1996 or John McCain in 2008, only even more out of it. They were both good men, but each was about 8 years too late to be a good candidate.
The Republicans need to disappear from US politics. It’s way past time for a new party.
I agree with you more than words can say, Tanner. But the people who own or control the concentrated wealth of America have learned the benefits of owning a political party, so if the Republicans go under, they will either buy an existing one or create a new one, and we will have the Republicans Mark II. It won’t have all that inconvenient baggage like Abraham Lincoln, Theodore Roosevelt, or Dwight Eisenhower – you know, past examples of excellence that make uncomfortable comparisons with the venal present.
They already have. There already is one.
The Republican Party, as it has been understood, is gone. The new party is the Trump Party. They just haven’t officially changed the name yet.
As a former Republican I totally agree. The only silver lining is that the Trump Party will be doing the ashbin of history thing by ’24 at the latest. Which is still way too far in the future. And am still expecting the Dems to blow the election next year. Moving left is exactly what they shouldn’t do so it looks like they’ll do it.
For Republicans it’s been one continuous dumbing down/sleazing up process since the early 90s. Buchanan/Perot, Grover Norquist, Rush, Newt, the NRA, the 2000 nomination, the neocons, Cheney, the Swift Boats, Palin, the Kochs, the Tea Party, I am not a witch, Alex Jones & Breitbart, Birtherism, and finally the Orange Buffoon.
Not holding much hope for the Senate Republicans doing their job on impeachment. Some of them have no brains, some no balls, and some are moving in stereo.
Why is moving left exactly what the Democrats shouldn’t be doing, Bill Deecee? I am genuinely interested in your thinking, because I agree with everything else you say above.
Even when he though he was about to lose in 2016 he used the treat of his supporters seeking revenge because of the “rigged election” Now he’s threatening the crash of Wall Street…. dogs and cats living together ..mass hysteria (Ghostbusters) if he is either impeached and/or people vote for Democrats. He really wants civil war
Tangentially, Biden and his sun don’t have good optics on this. I’d be fine if both Biden and Trump were off the ticket for 2020.
Compared to Trump and the Clintons, Biden is the epitome of honesty and integrity (though Neil Kinnock might disagree). But if you aren’t grading on a curve, Hunter Biden being put on the board of that Ukrainian energy company stinks to high heaven. Not because Joe Biden pressured Ukraine to fire that prosecutor, but because Hunter was appointed to the board at all. What value did a recovering drug addict with no relevant job experience bring to that board? Well he kinda sort of maybe had a close relationship with at least one high level US government official. But other then that?
Biden has denied knowing anything about his son’s business dealings. That sounds doubtful to me, but it might be true. But even then, Hunter is still guilty of trading on his father’s position. Like I said, the whole thing stinks. But I still want Biden to get the nomination because he has the best chance to beat Trump and from my perspective would probably be the least bad out of the Democrats running.
A) I don’t think the Clintons deserve to be in the same class as Trump. Not even close.
B) I think Biden is the Democrats best bet in 2020 in the exactly the same way that Hillary Clinton was their best bet in 2016. I remember a friend telling me she was certain to win because pretty much all women would vote for her. Nope. (No, I am not a Bernie Bro. But Scoopy has pointed out here that Hillary Clinton was always the sure winner in any election until ANYONE AT ALL ran against her. Then everything would go to hell.)
I very much prefer Warren. She is, to me, more credible as a future President than Biden or Sanders. She may turn out to be like Jimmy Carter – smart, but unable to get things done. Better that than Biden, who (at least to me) has always been something of a joke, or Sanders, who would be more polarizing.
(Also, the Hunter Biden/Ukraine thing would be God’s gift to a suffering Republican Party. They would turn it into another Whitewater.)
Roger, as a conservative/Republican, if I have to vote for a Democrat, I’d prefer that Democrat to be as moderate as possible. But since we disagree ideologically I wouldn’t expect you to agree with me. Unless you agreed that Biden is the strongest candidate to run against Trump. But you are entitled to your opinion and you may be right.
Hillary was always “certain” to win the Democratic nomination, but I always thought she was beatable in the 2016 general election by almost any Republican except Trump. Going back to Eisenhower, it has been quite rare for a political party to win a 3rd straight presidential election. The only time it happened was 1988 when VP George H W Bush won Reagan’s 3rd term. I was extremely depressed when Trump was the nominee for a whole host of reasons, one of which was the lost opportunity. But Hillary’s high negatives and poor choices (Wisconsin comes to mind) meant that EVEN Trump was able to beat her.
I pretty much agree with that, but potential Democratic voters are definitely split into two camps – those who want to return the USA to some kind of normality and business-as-usual, and those that desire a bold break from America’s past.
I am in the former camp: ex-Republican who would support Biden just because he’s a normal human being and is running against a monster. I just don’t know which way I would go in a Warren-Trump match-up. I’m ashamed to type that, but it is true, sadly. Warren is obviously a better human being, but she’ll get no support from me until I know EXACTLY what my new tax bill is going to look like. Will I have to pay for everyone’s medical care and education? If she can pay for all of her pie-in-the-sky by her wealth tax, corporate taxes, closing tax loopholes and asking the top 1% to do more, then I’m all in, but if it’s all about fucking the middle class once again, then she can return to her wigwam.
I don’t necessarily think Trump aids will be in danger of being prosecuted if Trump loses the election. Normally, if someone defies a subpoena, they will be brought before a judge and ordered to comply or face prison time. But the prison time is considered coercive, not punitive. All the person needs to do to get out of prison is comply with the subpoena. Therefore, if a Democratic administration decides to enforce the congressional subpoenas, the former Trump administration officials could avoid prison by claiming various privileges or other defenses, but if those failed they could comply. But that is unlikely to happen because once out of office they have no power over the subpoenaed documents. But they could be compelled to testify (unless they take the 5th). Eric Holder was found in contempt of Congress but was never prosecuted. Of course, they may face prosecution for crimes other then defying subpoenas. But I have no knowledge about that one way or the other.
The problem with prosecuting Trump is it would divide this country even more than it is divided today. Many of his supporters would believe the prosecution was politically motivated and as evidence of the corruption of our government, especially the “Deep State.” I’m not sure you could convict him. Where the jury is selected from would be key. But even in a deep blue city, more than 1 out of every 12 people is likely to like Trump. Trump’s most rabid supporters would do everything they could to get selected. Expect all potential jurors to be grilled about social media posts.
When push comes to shove I don’t care if Trump goes to prison. I very much care about people losing faith in our Constitution, laws, and governmental institutions. Gerald Ford said he pardoned Nixon because he wanted the country to move past Watergate. It probably cost him the election, but I think it was the right thing to do. My only problem with Pence is the way he is always heaping praise and complements on Trump. Listening to him turns my stomach. I agree he is in a very tough position, but he put himself in that position when he agreed to be Trump’s VP. I wonder if he would have said yes if he knew Trump would win? If Trump is a lame duck and his lawyers think he is likely to be prosecuted, I wouldn’t be surprised if Pence gets to be president for Christmas just so he can pardon Trump. That might be the end of his political career, but I think it would be the right thing to do.
In my opinion, placing Trump behind bars is the only way to demonstrate that America still respects the rule of law, not mob rule. If he skates, it is one more demonstration that our country has two sets of standards. People who are poor and/or non-white can go to jail for smoking a joint, but a rich and powerful person suffers no consequences for his efforts to undermine the entire democratic process while simultaneously risking the security of America and its allies.
True, but bets on that happening? Nixon walked, died a free man.
Scoop, I understand where you are coming from and don’t necessarily disagree that Trump getting away with everything would reinforce the idea that there are two standards of justice in this country. It really is a question of trying to find the least bad option. I just think the spectacle of a long drawn out prosecution, with the news media having no choice but to go to Trump for comments and/or to report on his twitter would be horrible. Trump would do whatever it takes, make whatever outrageous accusations it would take to save his own ass. I think that would be worse than another powerful rich white guy getting away with it.
Cuomo is as corrupt as they come.
Oh they come much more corrupt than Cuomo.
1) Thanks for making this clear summary of our situation, Scoopy.
2) Your remarks about Mike Pence and the picture of Melania Trump you put up a link to both remind me of the saying “Be careful what you wish for, because you might get it.”
3) One thing skill Trump has that I can’t deny: he is good at getting people to do things that turn out to be awful for them.
4) Cuomo is a DEMOCRAT? Maybe I listen to too much MSNBC and CNN, because even after reading the linked article I don’t understand his reaction.
4) You and me both! I don’t think his position is unreasonable, but I didn’t expect him to hold it.