“Senator Elizabeth Warren receives 20 percent support among Iowa likely Democratic caucus- goers, with South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg getting 19 percent, Sen. Bernie Sanders at 17 percent, and former Vice President Joe Biden at 15 percent.”
The difference between first and fourth is meaningless statistically. The MOE is 4.5. The result just shows that, as of now, any one of them could be the winner
This is actually the third consecutive Iowa poll in which Biden has finished fourth. The latest NYT poll and the Iowa State poll produced the same finding.
The details show …
… that Mayor Pete has a realistic chance of winning. Among white likely caucus-goers with a college education, Buttigieg tops the field! Among “moderate and conservative” Democrats, Buttigieg slides into the top spot by a point over Biden. But there is a more important fact buried in the details: among those who support the other candidates (outside the big four), 22 percent say that the little fella would be their second choice, 21 percent say Bernie, 12 percent say Sleepy Joe, and Pocahontas gets only 6 percent, so Pete might be the top choice if the poll were a forced choice between the four people who actually have a chance.
… that Biden himself may face the daunting prospect of winning the nomination after an Iowa loss. That’s a tough row for His Somnolence to hoe. From 1996-2016, the Democratic winner in Iowa has been the eventual nominee (although two of those were incumbent presidents, so the process was perfunctory). It can be done. Bill Clinton lost both Iowa (1) and New Hampshire (2) and went on to the 1992 nomination. In fact, Clinton finished a dismal fourth with only 2% of the vote in Iowa, but an also-ran finish in Iowa is not really considered a defeat for an upstart underdog, as Slick Willie was at the time, while it can seem like the kiss of death for the front-runner.
Continue reading “Iowa is a 4-way race – and Biden is 4th” →
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