The official committee rankings come out later in the week, but here’s how the writers and coaches see it.
The identities of the top three are obvious, if not their precise order.
ESPN Analytics strongly supported giving the top seed to LSU: “LSU ranks first in Strength of Record and it isn’t close. An average top-25 team would have had just a 1% chance to be undefeated thus far against LSU’s schedule. Meanwhile that seem team would have had a 16% chance to go undefeated vs. Ohio State’s schedule, the next best. Among the undefeateds, Clemson had it easiest: an average top 25 team would have had a 29% chance to be 10-0 at this point against the Tigers’ schedule.”
Sagarin’s analytics completely disagree with LSU’s primacy. He places Ohio State first by a mile. His ratings show that Ohio State would be favored over LSU by nine points on neutral turf and nearly two touchdowns if they played in Columbus. Sagarin does agree, however, that LSU has played the toughest schedule of all the undefeated teams, with nobody else very close, so his superior ranking of Ohio State must be based on margin of victory.
At the end of the day, it doesn’t really matter which team is rated #1 in the regular season, as long as the potential claimants are all in the top four, allowing them to face off head-to-head against the others.
In answer to the question I posed yesterday, “who will be #4?”, both polls responded “Alabama.” I guess it’s fair to say the Tide is the top one-loss team, given that the team’s only loss was to the #1 team by less than a TD. Sagarin completely agrees. In fact, his computer rankings still place Alabama above Clemson! He runs three different computer models, then consolidates them into his final rating, and all three base models place the same four teams in the top four. The other side of the argument is that ‘Bama probably will not be in the SEC championship game which, absent any upsets, will probably pit LSU against Georgia! If Alabama makes the top four, they will still have a chance at the national championship, despite finishing third in their own conference!
Major move of the week: the undefeated Minnesota Gophers rose six spots after their defeat of Penn State.
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