Biden’s lead over Trump has dipped to five points

Biden was comfortably in double figures all through October

On Oct. 28, Pelosi announced that the House would vote that week on a resolution to officially authorize impeachment proceedings. Trump has been creeping ever closer to Biden since then, which may or not be coincidental. My view of life allows for very few coincidences.

22 thoughts on “Biden’s lead over Trump has dipped to five points

  1. This analysis is pointless. Hearing how this candidate or that candidate will do against an incumbent. Give us a candidate then let’s see the numbers.

    The analysis that matters now is how Trump is doing in the rust belt that gave him the win in 2016. And that answer is simple: really bad. Terrible approval ratings in Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.

    He loses those three, he loses. Period. The math will never bear out another below-popular-vote win in that scenario.

    As he currently has zero interest in boosting his popularity anywhere, those numbers aren’t going to budge, and that’s that.

    1. He has not yet made an appeal to reach beyond his very hard core of supporters and if he never does, he could well lose those states. According to the most recent polls I’ve seen, he is losing all three.

  2. I’m not sure that December polls, especially late December polls should be trusted all that much.

    1. The GOP had some success in targeting Biden in the impeachment hearings…I expect that and the Fox echo chamber had something to do with it.

  3. At this point I’m hoping for a Trump win just to see the far left loons’ heads explode. No other reason. They need it and deserve it.

    1. Since when has right wing nutjobs like yourself EVER been about actual policy versus ‘owning the libs’?

      I hope if Trump does get reelected, he owns every bit of the upcoming recession or depression that’s coming that he kick started with his horrible tax cut for the rich in 2017 and his trade wars. I hope each and every one of Trump’s supporter feels every bit of it, and I won’t feel a damn bit of pity for them.

      The fed should up the interest rate and every welfare package for farmers that’s been pushed through due to his own failings should get blocked.

      You support this totalitarian corpocracy government and made your bed, so lie in it.

    2. So, let the country go down the shitter because that would be funny? Y’know, man, I don’t care what they say – YOU”RE ALL RIGHT. Merry Christmas.

      1. Nah this is what’s funny. Fucking morons supporting someone who says this shit:

        “But they’re manufactured tremendous if you’re into this, tremendous fumes. Gases are spewing into the atmosphere. You know we have a world, right? So the world is tiny compared to the universe. So tremendous, tremendous amount of fumes and everything.”

        How do you even make this shit up anymore? “Take that libruls, we voted in a guy who can’t put together a sentence! Dur hur wheres my meth”

        1. Who cares what he says? Why do liberals always care so much about talk and so little about action? See Obama as exhibit A. Just keep the economy hot and you’ve got my vote.

          1. The mental wellbeing of the largest nuclear capable country in human history should just be brushed off as a joke?

            Also, it’s not just what he says, it’s the fact that the economy in general has been expanding for 8 consecutive years before he even GOT to office. How are you going to credit Trump with that?

            The only thing he’s done is take what was already happening, push the gains to the top, add more shitty slave labor jobs that will evaporate in the next recession, and the corporate slave drivers you guys love so much will keep the gains. Just like the last recession.

            I’ve never seen a bigger group of fucking idiots in my life. He’s doing the same exact deregulation and tax cuts for the rich that JUST fucked the economy 10 years ago. But here we are again, because stupid fucks like Steve and Brobonk don’t have cell one in that pet rock of a brain of theirs.

          2. You don’t find it a problem when the Prez talks like a senile 5-year old? Well it worries this conservative more than a little.

          3. Bill, I’m a libertarian, not a republican but I am most definitely a conservative. The interesting thing about the right is it’s a mixup of different ideologies that all result in less government intervention. I doubt we agree on much but we still have our own reasons for voting gop. While I don’t personally like trump, his end goals are aligned with what interests me. Keep it coming.

      2. I’m doing incredibly well right now so yeah…. just because it’s funny. And also why mess with a good thing? I’m very happy with the current state of the country.

        1. Yeah, it’s pretty easy to do well when your parents pay for everything. You might feel differently when you graduate.

  4. I’ll trust the guys who actually have their money riding on this thing.

    As of 12/19, Vegas odds have Trump at -120 (basically 1 to 1).

    Biden sits 2nd at +550 (5.5 to 1)
    Sanders is +800 (8 to 1)
    Butigeg is +900
    Warren is +900

    Everyone else is 18 to 1 or worse.

    1. There’s no conflict there. They are basically saying the same thing. Trump would be about even money to win the Presidency if Biden beats him by 4 or 5 points in the popular vote. Biden will win California by about five million votes, and NY by two million, but that gives him the same number of electoral votes he would get if he were to win those states by one vote each. Biden will also win some other states by a million or so, but again, all of that does him little good.

      Hillary Clinton won NY, California, Massachusetts, Illinois and Maryland by nearly nine million votes, thus gathering 125 electoral votes, but Trump won the rest of the country by six million, with an electoral advantage of 202 (304-102). Looking at it that way, Trump’s six million plurality was worth almost twice as many electoral votes as Hillary’s nine million.

      Is that fair? Doesn’t matter. It is reality.

      Bottom line: Biden (or whoever gets the nomination, if not Biden) will have to do better than Hillary’s 2-point popular margin if he hopes to be President. Winning by 2 or 3 is a loss. Winning by 4 or 5 is a toss-up, as per your observation.

      The liberals are concentrated into pockets of the nation, so much of their balloting strength is wasted.

      1. Good explanation, Scoop, that explains the difference in numbers. I wasn’t even considering the popular vote, but now that you mention it, it makes complete sense.

        Thank you sir, and have a Merry Christmas!

    2. The other thing to keep in mind is that Trump is guaranteed the Republican nomination. Anyone running against him has to first secure the Democratic Party nomination. His odds of winning the presidency have to be nearly 50% because he’s already 50% of the way to reelection. Once he has a specific opponent the polls (and the odds) will be more informative. Combine that with how spectacularly wrong conventional wisdom was about his chances 4 years ago and we might (MIGHT) be witnessing an over correction in that Trump’s chances may actually be inflated this time around. But with 9 months to go, I anticipate at least 1 additional moderate to major scandal and a 1/2 dozen minor ones. So who can say? Well everyone, we live in a great country. But who can we be sure is right?

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