Iowa results are getting there – 97% in as I type.

To me the only star to emerge from the Iowa mess was a little-known polling firm called dbr. Unlike the established pollsters, dbr totally kicked ass in predicting the final results. In the table below, the first column of numbers represents the % of polled voters who were certain about their choice of the listed candidate. Those “certain” percentages do not add to 100 because 33% were either undecided, uncertain (lean), or preferred another candidate. The next column takes that 33% and reapportions it to the Big Six in the same ratio as their “certain” supporters. The final columns represent the final (well, almost final) results of the caucuses.

reapportioned to 100
SDEs popular vote
Buttigieg 17 25.4 26.2 25.0
Sanders 16 23.9 26.1 26.5
Warren 13 19.4 18.2 20.3
Biden 12 17.9 15.8 13.7
Klobuchar 8 11.9 12.2 12.2
Yang 1 1.5 1.0 1.0
undecided/other 33

As far as I can see, no other polling organization even came close to getting those proportions right. On the popular vote, they got Buttigieg, Warren and Klobuchar on the money. Biden did slightly worse than they expected, Bernie slightly better.

On to New Hampshire, where Bernie is now a prohibitive favorite.