They give Bernie a 49% chance of winning a simple majority of the delegates, and establish a 24% chance that no candidate will come to the convention with enough delegates. Biden is considered to have a 19% chance. If you’re scoring at home, that only leaves 8% for all other candidates added together. (Basically 4% each for Warren and Buttigieg, and zero for the others.)
Bernie is also the betting favorite at this point, with Bloomberg now closest.
The Bookmakers now consider Trump a favorite in the 2020 general election, and his odds have been improving steadily in the past two months, starting the day the House voted to impeach. His betting line rose to +140 during the investigation phase, but dropped to -125 after the impeachment vote. The line now stands at -150. The overseas bookmakers show even shorter odds (typically about -162), and they are still shortening. They could shorten far more if and when Bernie’s nomination gets more certain.
(I don’t think there have been any “Trump vs Sanders” polls since the Iowa debacle and the Senate acquittal.)
Overall, despite some stops and starts, Trump’s likelihood of re-election has been increasing for a year now, as the Democrats have produced no clear, powerhouse contender.
Bernie or bust.
If Bernie does win the primary, then at least it will be on the total lack of corporate donors. And if Trump beats Bernie? Then the world and his supporters deserve every bit of the scorched earth to come, because be damn sure in a second term he will be as insane as ever and won’t be able to claim the damage coming is anyone else’s fault but his own.
I rather go all or nothing with a candidate truly trying to make things better, than continue this cycle of do-nothing centrism where if Biden were elected, the Republicans would just play the blame game when the boomerang from Trump’s horrible deficit addition and tax cuts for the rich come back around.
Only one word incorrect
Substitute AND for OR
We’ll see. If society is too stupid to accept that civilization can still exist, without the overhead of subsidizing less than a couple hundred people owning half the resources of a planet of 7.7 billion people, then it deserves what it gets.
Personally I rather that wealth go to virtually anyone or anything else other than to be hoarded and used by a very few to live like gods, but unfortunately so many are brainwashed at this point that if you don’t give the ultra wealthy what they want – that civilization as we know it will cease to exist. Humanity survived black death, but apparently the threat to a couple hundred false idols hoarding resources would be the worst existential threat in human history.
At this point, the world deserves more Trump if the basic understanding of an economic system not subsidizing extreme inequity can’t be resolved. Like multiple wars and economic depressions over this countries history, we’ll have to pay the price again to get bitch slapped back into the correct conclusion.
Nihilism.
I’m not even American and I feel so bad for you.
4 more Trump years…
Here’s an interesting theory that the actual nominee doesn’t matter.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/02/06/rachel-bitecofer-profile-election-forecasting-new-theory-108944
Four years ago, I said a Trump victory was inevitable, because everyone said it could not possibly happen, and the history of the twentieth century showed that whenever everybody though something could not possibly happen, it happened. (Major cite: the First World War. Not that it started, but the holocaust it became. Major cites in my lifetime: Reagan ending inflation, the collapse of the Soviet Union.)
I do not know if that now applies to Bernie. Electing Bernie four years after electing Trump feels unthinkable, but I don’t know if enough people consider it unthinkable. They ought to, but it may just be ordinary-level impossible, and not inconceivable-level impossible.
Except the rich who have inordinate power in the US are not by and large in favor of a Bernie presidency.
4 years ago I said Trump couldn’t win. I didn’t see how a GOP nominee that turned off a significant number of Republicans such that they couldn’t/wouldn’t vote for him could win. Well… I certainly hope the United States wouldn’t elect a socialist, but he would be running against Trump and who knows what he will do (or has done that will come to light) leading up to the election. While I now have no doubt Trump COULD win, I have to say the same thing about anyone that is running against him, even Bernie. Though I do believe Trump would have the best chance to win if Bernie is the Dem nominee. Bloomberg anyone?
As somebody pointed out in one of these threads, the real winners in Iowa were Trump and Bloomberg.
Bring it on, the world needs a Bernie presidency.
Sanders is not going to win against Trump unless the economy tanks.
It goes soooooo much deeper than just the economy
Americans are sick of the BS and stupid distractions and the dems have NO candidate that captures the goals that Americans want tackled. Pelosi, Schift and the balance of the liberal leadership need to be turned and AOC and the other new blood are not the answer!
Whether the world needs it or not, it seems to the oddmakers that the closer Bernie gets to the nomination, the closer Trump gets to re-election. At this point, Bernie is viewed as George McGovern II – an impractical idealist whose ideas are too far left even to defeat a corrupt incumbent.
On the other hand,
(1) Bernie is still looking good against Trump in head-to-head polls (with the caveat that this is before the right-wing media can really focus on him) .
(2) Russia, to achieve its stated end of weakening America, may prefer Bernie to Trump, which would certainly throw a monkey wrench into the works.
Naw…you don’t change horses in midstream :).
That’s not a change. One thing that has been rarely discussed in the mainstream media is that the Russian bots and sock puppets came out hard for Bernie in the 2016 primary season, just as hard as they did for The Donald in the general. They were not really pro-Trump or pro-Bernie. They had two objectives: (1) fuck with America, (2) defeat Hillary.
Did they have a preference between Trump and Bernie…? You’re implying they might prefer Bernie over Trump this time.
I don’t think we know that. They have never had to choose.
But they may prefer Bernie because of the “chaos” factor, fomenting even more divisiveness, or because they think that Bernie would weaken the mighty engine of the American economy. I can’t guess. They will do whatever they think is best for Russia.
Yeah… the day before the election they also said Hilary couldn’t lose.
They didn’t, you know. The week before the election 538 was trying to draw attention to Trump’s rising numbers, and pointing out how very badly Hillary was running her campaign’s endgame.
Yeah…that was a week before the election…but the BS about Sanders is months before the convention. That’s just dumb.
Actually, it’s pretty much the opposite of that. By 538’s methodology, Trump’s likelihood had surged from 9% on October 17th to 35% on November 6th – a massive gain in just 17 days.
Liberals were giving 538 a hard time because Nate was warning them that the continuing momentum of Trump’s sudden surge showed that he had a respectable chance to win (although the outcome was still not likely, in Nate’s opinion).
Say hello to 4 more yrs of Trump. The Dems are inept. But this projection by five thirty eight is premature….even at 49%.