Tom Brady’s stuff is all in a moving van

What does it mean? Who knows? Sports fans are buzzing about it, but it’s not really news. The house has been on the market for a long time.

Is he staying with the Pats? Here is what the bookies say.

2 thoughts on “Tom Brady’s stuff is all in a moving van

  1. That is an urban myth. The media is correct. You are not. NFL betting in particular has been studied in great depth at the legal bookmaking operations. Overall, 2/3 of the bets, not half, go on the favorites.

    “In 2004, University of Chicago economist Steven Levitt identified the fact that point spreads aren’t set like typical market prices, by equating relative levels of supply and demand. Instead, bookmakers set the margin to make the chance of the favorite covering the spread to be roughly 50 percent.”

    In reality, bookmakers are setting the point spreads so that each team has a 50% chance of winning, not so that each team will have 50% of the money bet on them. Studies have shown that favorites always attract 65-67% of the betting money, although they cover the spread just about exactly 50% of the time.

    When the favorites cover, the books have to pay 2/3 of the betters, but that’s fine because when the underdogs win they only have to pay 1/3, and underdogs win with the spread 50% of the time.

    In fact, it doesn’t really matter if people bet 100% of the money on the favorites, as long as the spread is set correctly so that favorites fail to cover 50% of the time.

  2. “Meaning the site views that by far as the most likely outcome.” That is not what odds mean and it’s a mistake the media makes constantly. Gambling odds are set to ensure that the money being bet is as close as possible to 50-50 each way. They are NEVER predicting any outcomes. If I went on that site and bet $1 million that Brady was leaving the Pats, they would quickly adjust the odds to make sure the next million to come in would be betting on him to stay.

Comments are closed.