Election update; Bloomberg out (Mike drop)

WaPo summary

CNN summary

Biden won Virginia by a mile (99), but Sanders will make threshold.

Biden will win Alabama by a mile (52). Sanders will make the threshold.

Biden has won North Carolina (110). Sanders will make threshold.

Biden has won Tennessee (64). Sanders and Bloomberg will make threshold.

Biden has won Oklahoma (37). Sanders will make threshold. Bloomberg and Warren will come close, but miss.

Biden has won Arkansas (31). Sanders and Bloomberg will make threshold.

Biden has won Minnesota (75). Sanders will make the threshold, and Warren should barely make it as well.

Biden has won Maine (24). Maine is meaningless since it has few votes and three candidates will split them. (Warren will also make the threshold.)

Biden will win Texas (228), but may not gain much of an edge from the state because Bernie was close, and Bloomberg may make the threshold. (Bloomberg is sitting at 14.9 as I type this.)

Biden has won Massachusetts (91). Sanders and Warren will make the threshold.

Elizabeth Warren finished third in her home state, which is a major setback. It is not clear to me what her motivation may be for staying in, given no credible path to the nomination and the bookies setting 100-1 odds against her.

UPDATE: “Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) is taking a day to assess whether she still has a path to the Democratic nomination after a disappointing Super Tuesday in which she failed to net a substantial delegate haul.”

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Sanders has won Vermont by a mile (16), but Biden will make the threshold.

Sanders has won Colorado (67), but will not gain much because the other three will all make the threshold, so the delegates will be split.

Sanders has won Utah (29), but may not gain much because the other three may all make the threshold, so again the delegates could be split quite evenly. (That’s the way it looks now, but Utah’s reporting is extremely slow. All three of them are on the edge, and could drop below 15% after all the votes are counted.)

Sanders will win California (415), where he outspent Biden twenty to one, convincingly. Biden will make the threshold. Bloomberg will probably not make it. He is at 14.3% at the moment. That will be Bernie’s big plum for the evening, and the only place where he will really gain a big edge on Biden.

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Bloomberg won American Samoa. Break out the champagne! (6). He will get at least 4 delegates. Tulsi Gabbard is the only other candidate that made the threshhold and will get at least 1 delegate.

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Note that candidates can obtain delegates by either winning 15 percent of the vote statewide OR hitting 15 percent in a single congressional district, so some candidates will get a smattering of delegates in states where they did not reach 15% statewide. (For example, Bloomberg will win some delegates in California and Texas.)

The exit polls show that Bernie absolutely dominates among young voters and Latinos, but has had no success building black support. He couldn’t even pull 20% of the black vote in California.

It appears that all the planets are aligned against Sanders. With Bloomberg gone, the people siphoning Biden votes are all out. The main person siphoning Bernie votes (Warren) is staying in for the moment.

42 thoughts on “Election update; Bloomberg out (Mike drop)

  1. Sorry Adam, not convinced. Although they all would probably make better Presidents than Pence.

    1. Val Demings was just on CNN endorsing Biden and was asked about the Vice Presidency as she has been mentioned as a credible contender for the position. She is clearly highly intelligent.

      I think some experience is necessary, but, if Trump had been, say, a Nassau County Commissioner (I know he lived in New York City) before becoming President, it wouldn’t have made a damn bit of difference.

      it’s impossible to know what sort of President a person will be based on their political experience, I get back to George H W Bush being a pretty poor President despite his lifetime of political experience (though only four years in elected office prior to becoming Vice President.) Presidents themselves say the best experience for the Presidency is being President. I can’t remember a single President that didn’t struggle in the office for the first few months or year, except for maybe Truman.

  2. Stacey Abrams is not little known. And not nearly up to WH level. The other three- you’re joking, right?
    The last three Presidents have come to the WH with insufficient background and also in the case of the current bozo no qualifications whatsoever.
    If that’s the best you can come up with in black women you’d best widen the search. Or maybe not narrow the range of possibilities so much.

    1. George H W Bush was the most qualified President based on resume since Nixon and he was a one term President, and deservedly so.

      Val Demings was chosen as a House Impeachment Manager, Terri Sewell is a 10 year member of the House and is the Vice Chair of the Ways and Means Committee and Robin Kelly was the Cook County Chief Administrative Officer and has been a member of the House for 7 years.

      I’m not sure how much additional experience would help. Do you think Mike Pence would be a better President than Trump simply because he was an awful governor for 4 years and a member of the House before that?

  3. Not to get too far ahead, but while Stacey Abrams would likely be the best Vice Presidential nominee for a younger Joe Biden, given the concerns of his health and mental acuity, he needs a Vice Presidential nominee who would be seen as capable of being President on day 1 and she is a little known former Georgia State House Minority Leader. If he wants to choose a capable black women, which is probably a good idea, I say forget about Kamala Harris who often seems to be as erratic as he is, and focus on one of these three members of the House of Representatives:

    1.Terri Sewell of Alabama
    2.Val Demings of Florida. She’s only in her second term in the House, but she was the Orlando Police Chief prior to that.
    3.Robin Kelly of Illinois

  4. I was there, I have a good memory, and I go through reading like a demented steam shovel. Have never touched acid. For my part, I think you’re incoherent and unfactual because (a) you’re stupid, or (b) you’re ignorant, or (c) your MAGA cap is squeezing your “brain”. Trying to decide which. You are the “Trump greatest prez ever” clown, are you not?
    Btw, remedial English wouldn’t hurt.

    1. I am democrat and I was there too he was so far left the mainstream of party voted for Nixon and I can answer without calling names,so obviously you are in that uneducated group that can’t read.But if you like I can go that way too and call you the asshole you are.You say you read how you could ever figure I am Trumper shows how stupid you are

      1. Actually most of the mainstream Democrats voted without any enthusiasm for McGovern. McGovern was to the left of his party – I didn’t say he wasn’t.
        Btw, you called me a confused acidhead, remember? And you definitely referred to Trump as “greatest Prez ever” in an earlier post. Generally that indicates Trumper. I can figure that out even with my reading problem.

        1. bill quit spewing lies show me a post where i said Trump was best Prez ever now you are not only doing acid,can’t read and your full of shit

          1. If you’re not that Randy who said “Trump best Prez ever” (I think that’s exact, it’s been a while) my apologies. But I doubt we have two Randys here.
            As for your other stuff, just stick it.
            Don’t bother with any idiotic comebacks. I’m not wasting any more time with you.

  5. Biden will be 78 a couple of weeks after election date. And looks older most days. I do not want to see her getting a VP nod even if she might make a complimentary running mate. Too much of a chance she ends up in the WH where she can exercise her stupendously bad judgement at everyone’s expense. Her trying to outBernie Bernie might be the dumbest campaign strategy I’ve seen since the gold standard: Bob Dole’s “He’s a liberal” from 96.
    Re Trump my take is that this he has developed a Biden fixation over the last few years and genuinely fears him as an opponent. As for the polls it reminds me of 72 where McGovern was actually ahead of Nixon for a stretch. My take from day 1 was that McG had no chance whatsoever. Which the election kind of confirmed.
    Meanwhile a lumpy faced former Senator adjusts her pantsuit, contemplates the possibility of neither Bernie nor Biden coming into the convention with enough delegates and screeches in her ear-assaulting chantshout, “They’ll turn to me!!!”.

    1. no Bill you need to read up they showed Mc Govern so far to left it was a landslide look up up things before you call up people and why don’t you listen to analysts that have also said my points, i think your confused because you were probably on acid

    2. now i know you are braindead still from that acid you did, Mc Govern after convention never led Nixon in polls he sealed his fate with Eagleton controversy the polls got worse and worse slow in changing running mate just like you are slow in the brain.

  6. Hopefully Warren will drop out and we will get a Biden v. Bernie race moving forward. That would set up a very clear one-on-one battle between an establishment Dem and a left-progressive Dem. It would be interesting to see a debate with just Biden and Bernie on the stage.

    1. I don’t think Warren has any intention of quitting, but I might be wrong.

      As I said some time ago, she is the perfect running mate for Biden. She fills in his weaknesses, and she’s not afraid to rip Trump the same new one that she ripped Bloomberg. That ticket, backed by Bloomberg’s infinite money and Obama’s active campaigning, would be formidable.

      One thing puzzles me. Why do Trump and Fox News REALLY REALLY REALLY want Bernie to win? Bernie seems to poll well against Trump head-to-head, and takes back a big chunk of the Obama-to-Trump voters. What do they know that we don’t?

      I can see Putin’s motivation. He wants a weak and divided America, which will be provoked by a Trump-Bernie campaign, and the result will be fine for Putin no matter who wins. But what does Trump gain? Is he really that worried about a Biden candidacy?

      1. Because the Republicans have put all their focus as a party on the ‘red scare’ since WWII. The ‘socialism’ in democratic socialism is a brainwashed bad word in which Republicans have long since distorted to mean ‘dystopian authoritarian communism.’ This comparison has as much legitimacy as North Korea’s official name of: “Democratic People’s Republic of Korea” meaning democracy.

        This has been going back decades, even since Truman was President and tried to get universal healthcare enacted, only for lobbyists with heavy money to push that it’s ‘communist propaganda.’

        It’s no different than today, you label something as a bad word, see how many people change their minds based on no information whatsoever. When Obama was President, ‘How do you feel about Obamacare?’ versus ‘How do you feel about Affordable Care Act?’ interviews proved how stupid people in this country there are.

        I would be willing to be ‘How would you feel about the healthcare industry being non-profit with the profit being funneled back into the system for improvements, with no administrative costs, and standardized price levels for medications?’ versus ‘How do you feel about socialized medicine?’ provoked a much wider differential even though the concepts are EXACTLY the same – only described with a label with a history of being a propaganda term.

        1. So the Republicans think they can win just be repeating the word socialist over and over?

          Are they right?

          1. Funny thing is that in regard to Bernie they’re right. First time ever in I’m thinking 15 years or so of continuing misuse of the word. The noseless pig finds the acorn.

          2. Yes and Yes again. It worked against Mc Govern a land slide plus Sanders will give the house back to Republicans and keep the Senate

          3. To Randy: In 72 it was “Amnesty, abortion, and acid”. I don’t remember anything about socialism.
            Go read up on stuff for a change.

          4. They’ve done worse than that. They’ve done a hell of a job convincing poor rural blue collar workers that every minority, country, and non-Christian is responsible for all their woes instead of the rich executives who nuked the land with mining and left towns with nothing except black lung or other illnesses.

            Trump convinced his entire uneducated base he was for them, while cutting the corporate tax 15% and it didn’t change the hiring pattern of corporations a bit. Also that every minority or immigrant in the US is a leech on society looking for a handout, when rural communities get virtually all public services paid for by liberal metro cities in their state. Or get a government subsidy for farmers on the tariffs Trump chose to implement.

            It’s always a handout or socialism as long as it’s not you taking the benefits. Republicans have convinced most of the country to accept being poor and we’ll make sure you have someone to look down on. We’re no farther than LBJ’s famous quote:

            “If you can convince the lowest white man he’s better than the best colored man, he won’t notice you’re picking his pocket. Hell, give him somebody to look down on, and he’ll empty his pockets for you.”

    1. You ask, “why anyone would be glad to vote for Biden”? Easily answered. Because he is not Donald J Trump.

      I am sure I dislike Biden just as much as you do. And, yes, I agree he can be creepy and a long-winded bore. But he is infinitely less likely to start a nuclear war than Herr President.

      So, yes, I’m very glad to vote for Biden. No matter how many new videos of whatever emerge. He at least understands how to apologise for his past indiscretions and attempt to move on. As contrasted, again, to a certain Mr D J Trump.

    2. To paraphrase Mr. Churchill, if Donald Trump ran against Satan, I would at least give the Father of Lies some positive blog posts.

      And I might write something nice about Satan as well.

  7. Looks like the Democratic party is following the 2016 playbook yet again, right to the edge of hell.

    This time with a do nothing centrist who sounds more incoherent than Trump at times, with a nice backlog of creepy White House visits sniffing little girls hair, and a conflict of interest ‘scandal’ Trump will weaponize.

    MLK’s quote on the white moderate still holds true today:

    “First, I must confess that over the past few years I have been gravely disappointed with the white moderate. I have almost reached the regrettable conclusion that the Negro’s great stumbling block in his stride toward freedom is not the White Citizen’s Council-er or the Ku Klux Klanner, but the white moderate, who is more devoted to “order” than to justice; who prefers a negative peace which is the absence of tension to a positive peace which is the presence of justice”

  8. Bloomberg is now below 15% in Texas and will very likely end up below 15% in California, though he’ll still win some delegates in both states as a result of being above 15% in a number of U.S House districts in California and State Senate districts in Texas.

    Bloomberg is lucky that he started off the day by going to the Democratic Party and asking “please, sir, may I have Samoa?”

  9. For those interested in lower ballot races, every incumbent Congressperson (Representative) running for re-nomination has won with the exception of one uncalled race.

    The two closest races for incumbents seeking re-nomination were both in Texas. Kay Granger, a Republican representative since 1996 was challenged by a Colleyville City Councilor who had the endorsement of the Club For Growth (…for the 1%.) Trump endorsed Granger who ended up with around 58% of the vote.

    The uncalled race is the Texas 28th Congressional district, where the Democrat in the House who apparently most votes for Trump legislation, Henry Cuellar, is ahead of a young AOC style Democrat, Jessica Cisneros 51.6-48.4% with 44% of the precincts reporting. Cisneros was endorsed by AOC while Cullar was endorsed by Nancy Pelosi.

  10. Here’s the thing I never got about primaries. I think both parties determine the number of delegates based on population and other factors, to include number of Senators & Representatives who are in the party, and whether the state went for the party in the last presidential election. Thus the safer the state is for your party, the more influence it has.

    Now the sole purpose of the primaries is not necessarily to pick the person who has the best chance of winning the general election, but if it was, then this system works exactly the opposite of that goal. If the Democrats were really focused on winning, they would essentially discount the influence of safe states like California and Massachusetts, which will almost certainly vote Democrat regardless of who the nominee is, and the Republicans would do the same for Louisiana/Mississippi/ West Virginia, etc. Instead they would heavily weigh the number of delegates in the swing states (Florida, Michigan, Ohio, etc.) that they need to win, on the assumption that whoever does well there is more likely to carry the general election.

    I don’t know how you’d be able to actually implement this kind of system; it would piss off people because it “punishes” states for being too loyal to the party. And when all is said and done, it’s the party insiders who run things.

    1. Your logic is flawless.

      Unfortunately, the world rarely runs logically.

      It’s kind of sad that the system has come to this, that the only states that really matter in presidential elections are Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, Colorado, North Carolina, Virginia, Arizona, Nevada, New Hampshire and New Mexico.

      (And now, apparently, Georgia)

      Presidential candidates can pretty much ignore everyone else.

      Because of the electoral college, it seems to me that too many small things affect hugely important matters. For example, Al Gore is elected president if Ralph Nader can’t get on the ballot in New Hampshire. If that happens, no invasion of Iraq, and none of the subsequent consequences of that invasion, particularly ISIS.

      All of that geopolitical drama was hinging on such a seemingly unimportant thing.

      Pocahontas is logically correct. The electoral college should be abolished.

      But again, when did the world ever operate logically?

      1. ISIS actually would have happened anyway, they just would have run into a very different situation in Iraq (depending on whether Saddam was still alive, or one of his bumbling sons had taken over, or they had collapsed into civil war). It would have been somewhat less *our* problem, though, at least in the early stages.

        1. Debatable. Even if ISIS had formed, it would likely have accomplished far less without the assistance of the former members of the Republican Guard who contributed to its victories. With Saddam still in power, they would presumably have been fighting against ISIS rather than for it. ISIS was really able to gain much of its territory because of the total impotence of post-Saddam Iraq.

      2. You make a hell of a lot of assumptions about third party voters.

        People vote for third parties and independents because they are anti-establishment. Be it Green, Libertarian, or others – because they are closer on the political radar doesn’t mean their vote is siphoned by the two major parties. It is much more likely for these people to write-in a vote or not even vote rather than give one to the establishment.

        Nader has spent his life pushing towards safety and consumer advocacy. Think he would have been the one to push these ridiculous bailouts for corporations and the auto industry?

        You want to pin something on the establishment – how about the coordinated policy of both Republicans AND Democrats to constantly intervene in the Middle East when the US was not wanted OR required there. All to feed the military industrial complex so those Northrup Grumman and Lockheed Martin lobbyists have politicians in their back pockets to fill the pockets of executives.

        Without that, chances are 9-11 doesn’t happen, the Iraq War 1 or 2 doesn’t happen – and expanding out just on useless intervention – the Korean or Vietnam War doesn’t happen. Imagine if all that money over the years was poured in to infrastructure spending, affordable health and medicine, or higher learning. Well pretty much ANYTHING.

        Spend money paying Lockheed or a better bomb to stick our nose in other countries business, its for ‘freedom.’ Spend the same money on your own citizens its ‘socialism.’

        Gotta love the worldview of the Luddite conservatives and moderates. In 100 years society will be looking at this era the same as us looking back on the Early/Middle Ages using leeches for treatment and poisoning their own water supply with sewage.

        1. I didn’t make any assumptions. The exit polls in New Hampshire showed how many Nader voters would have voted Gore, vs Bush, vs not at all.

      3. I have no interest in living in a country where California makes all the decisions. The electoral college is fine. It allows people who have different values, philosophies, and priorities to be left alone by the federal government. California can run how it wants. It doesn’t need to dictate it’s values to Louisiana. It’s the United STATES of America.

        1. The problem with that theory is that it makes Californians LESS important than other Americans. I would not have any great problem with amending the electoral college so that it is based solely on the number of representatives in the house. The problem is the senate, which allows the election to be controlled buy a bunch of empty land rather than by people. And it also screws people in the regular old Midwestern states as well, not just Californians. Wyoming has about the same population as my rinky-dink little population center from Green Bay to Oshkosh, yet it gets two senators, and I get to share two senators with some five million other people! Somehow, I just don’t want the people of Wyoming making my decisions for me, so I can just imagine how the 30+ million in California feel about Wyoming making their decisions.

      4. Well, abolishing the Electoral College is a big lift and unlikely to happen. But it would be easy to over-turn some or all of the 48 state “winner-take-all” statutes that are the real cause of the resulting mis-allocation of electors. Repealing those stupid laws can be easily achieved and would accomplish almost completely the same goal as abolishing the Electoral College (which might not be possible given Art. 5 of the Constitution). It would certainly end the situation where your vote for President doesn’t count in California or New York.

  11. I will vote for whoever the Democrats nominate from the current crop, but I have never been enthused about Biden. My candidate was and still is Warren. Oh, well, that’s how democracy works.

  12. Shockingly, it appears the Democratic Party establishment actually has its act together. Looks like Biden is on his way to the nomination.

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