The stats: Coronavirus mapped and quantified.

ADDED 4/9: The USA’s # of cases held flat with the previous day (actually slightly down to 1,940 from 1,971).

The USA can be fairly compared to the “Big 5” European corona countries (France, Italy, Spain, Germany, UK), which together have a population of 323.4 million, which is almost identical to the population of the USA (327.2).

America has 435,000 corona cases, versus 575,000 for the Big 5
America has 15,000 deaths, versus 53,000 for the Big 5.
America has conducted 2.2 million tests, versus approximately 3.4 million for the Big 5.
America reported more new cases yesterday: 32,000-25,000
The Big 5 reported more new deaths yesterday: 3,100-2,000

The Big 5’s test numbers are estimated because of Spain. Worldometers has the up-to-date numbers for The UK, Germany and Italy. Worldometers has the wrong number for France, but the correct number can be calculated. France reports that 27% of their tests have been positive. Given their number of positives, they must have conducted about 418,000 tests. Nobody seems to know how many people Spain has tested, so my estimate of 600,000 for Spain is a total guess, based on assuming 25% positive tests, which is the average of France (27%) and the UK (22%).

US testing is still in the second tier. Germany has tested 15 people per 1000, Italy 13. The USA and France are about half that level. The UK lags far behind at 4 per 1000. Spain, as noted, is unknown.

UPDATED 4/9: BoJo, covid positive, still in intensive care, but now improving.

ADDED 4/8: Key coronavirus model revised downward, now predicts 60K deaths in US by August. The previous prediction from the same model was 81,000. You can find the data for your own state here. Click on “The United States of America” in green and white, and it will produce a drop-down menu of countries and states.

NOTE: this model assumes full social distancing in all 50 states until May 31, even though many states will be down to 0-2 deaths per day by May 1. I fear that many governors, seeing the numbers drop so dramatically, will rescind their stay-in-place orders, and that would create a new bump in the curve. I hope the forecasters are right in predicting a steady decline in fatalities after April 12th. That suggests we are nearly over the hump.

ADDED 4/7: This can’t be good. 51 recovered coronavirus patients test positive again in South Korea. For now, the KCDC’s director-general, Jeong Eun-kyeong, believes it is likely the infection was re-activated after remaining dormant in the patients, as opposed to them being reinfected. Either way, it strengthens fears that the contagion remains a hidden danger even after it appears to have gone — with whistleblowing Chinese doctors previously warning it is even deadlier the second time.

ADDED 4/3: The Unemployment Rate Is Probably Around 13 Percent. It’s almost certainly at its highest level since the Great Depression.”

NEW 3/28: The data are beginning to reveal that covid-19 is much more dangerous for men. The data are consistent from country to country: men make up 72% of the intensive care unit admissions in Spain, 73% in France, 75% in Norway, 71% in the UK. While researchers cannot yet determine how much of the gender disparity can be attributed to behavioral components, it seems clear that the significance of the gap across cultures means that there must be some biological explanation.

NEW 3/28: Why is Germany’s death rate so much lower than everyone else’s? Nobody is certain. There are several possible reasons: (1) aggressive testing has identified many mild cases; (2) the average age of those infected is low – for example, it’s 46 in Germany, 63 in Italy; (3) they have a good healthcare system and an aggressive government; (4) the fatality numbers are not-apples-to-apples because other countries are routinely doing post-mortem tests on those who were not tested in life, while Germany is not. (When a corpse is tested positive, it adds to the infected total, as well as the total of those who had covid-19 and died – in effect weighing in a 100% death rate for that group.)

An MIT study, Will Coronavirus Pandemic Diminish by Summer?, suggests that 90% of transmission occurs within a narrow temperature band (37 to 63 F) and absolute humidity band. The scientists do not claim that transmission ceases outside those temperature and humidity bands, but that the spread occurs more slowly. If that holds, the Asian monsoon season, as well as the North American summer, should work against the disease.

Feb 26: “We have thousands or hundreds of thousands of people that get better, just by, you know, even going to work. Some of them go to work, but they get better.”

Feb 26: We’re going to be pretty soon at only five people. And we could be at just one or two people over the next short period of time..”

Feb 26: We’re going down, not up. We’re going very substantially down, not up..”

Feb 26: The 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero.”

Feb 24:

 


The Dow was at 27,960 that day. One month later it was at 18,592.

76 thoughts on “COVID-19 update

  1. “It looks like the unemployment rate is headed to 15 percent,” said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at MUFG Bank, in a note to clients. “This isn’t a recession, it’s the Great Depression II.”

  2. In regards to the 51 cases in South Korea, another possibility is that these individuals were admitted to hospital really ‘only’ having the flu but their test resulted in a false positive, and they now have the Coronavirus (pure speculation but most likely a result of having been in the hospital.)

  3. So Trump is setting such a bad example by not wearing a mask?

    Where are Dr. Fauchi & Dr. Birx masks?

      1. I keep hoping Ann Coulter and Texas Lt. Governor Dan Patrick will lead by example, playgroundpsychotic, but they haven’t yet. Fingers crossed!

  4. I’d say you’re brainwashed but that would require the presence of a brain.

  5. You people are a bunch of assholes. President Trump is the greatest president we’ve had in our lifetimes. Douchebags.

  6. In regards to the Coronavirus testing being only around 2/3 accurate. This is why, I believe, 2 tests are conducted to weed out many of the false positives and false negatives. If one test is 1/3 inaccurate, standard probability shows that 2 tests will be *only* 1/9 inaccurate. (the odds of two inaccurate tests are 1/3 * 1/3 which equals 1/9.) That’s still a lot of people getting inaccurate results (more false positives than false negatives) but, they’re certainly mostly reliable if two tests are being given.

  7. Condolences to Wisconsin… Wisconsin Supreme Court blocks order by governor to stop Tuesday’s elections in state’s latest whipsaw.

        1. 1.A non-viable fetus is not a baby. Being an ignoramus does not allow you to win an argument.

          2.If you want to claim to be ‘pro-life’ and not simply anti-abortion, then actually do pro-life things and not pro-death things.

          3.In regards to point 1, if you’re objection to abortion is religiously based, there is nothing in the Bible itself that actually argues against abortion of at least a non-viable fetus. (The Bible’s clearest argument on this is that life begins with the first breath and a fetus never breathes, which means, from a Biblical perspective, only a baby outside of the womb is considered alive.) There are arguments from most Christian denominations that a soul enters the fetus immediately, but these arguments are entirely inconsistent with other arguments these same Christian denominations use. If anybody is interested I could go into more, but it has to do with the concept of predestination.

        2. The abortion debate is pretty easily defeated by logic with a stance I see very few take. You don’t even have to take the stance of what is, or isn’t life.

          Do we require citizens to risk life and limb to rescue others in an emergency situation? Do we even require citizens to even make a CALL or report a life threatening situation?

          The answer is no. Millions of women have died throughout history due to maternal death. We don’t have requirements to endanger an individual to help one another with definitive ‘life’ of another individual. Hell we don’t even have requirements to REPORT it in most cases.

          If that’s the case, how can you legally make the case a woman should accept risk of her own life then?

          It’s pretty ridiculous, bullshit argument to enforce some made up theocracy. If people want to advocate that women should take the risk in a secular way and offer options like adoption and so on, that’s fine. There should be no legal wrangling over the issue, because we don’t even apply apples to apples and require it of citizens in general.

          1. I think the abortion debate can’t be resolved. There is no room for compromise on either side of the issue.

            As a matter of public policy, however, I believe abortions must be legal, for two reasons.

            A society should not be populating itself with unwanted children.

            People are going to get abortions. I would rather they do so in safe, sterile, medical conditions rather than in the black market.

          2. Of course it won’t be resolved, same with obeying authority, income inequality, and other societal issues. We’re a pretty illogical species, I’m just pointing out the hypocrisy in trying to influence the law for a standard that doesn’t even exist for humans definitely alive and breathing.

            It’s never been about saving anyone anyway, it’s always been about turning the law into a theocracy rather the merits of the debate. I think George Carlin’s bit on pro-life summed it up pretty well.

          3. Yes, but in those other cases, one side may have a superior position. There are reasons why great income inequality is bad for a society. In addition to the economic issues, there is the simple matter of public unrest reaching the boiling point. Ask Marie Antoinette. And there is room for compromise. Reasonable people may debate the precise extent to which the redistribution of wealth is necessary. Which level of Maslow’s heirarchy should a society absolutely guarantee its poorest? We know that the Karl Marx model doesn’t work, and we know the Louis XIV model doesn’t work, but there’s plenty of room to tinker in between those extremes.

            But in the case of abortion, neither side has an argument that is overwhelming. Those in favor argue that a woman’s right to choose is inviolate. Those opposed argue that the right of the fetus to life is inviolate. There is no overwhelming logical or scientific argument to support or refute either position, and no room for compromise. A society must therefore decide what is best for the society rather than what is best for some individuals over others. When that is the basis for the debate, it is possible to find some positions which are stronger than others. Medicine is better performed by the trained and educated in optimal conditions. A society without unwanted children is safer. Doctors who perform abortions can help society much more when they are out of jail.

    1. Fuck the Wisconsin Supreme Court. If it were a presidential election, I’d vote, but I’m not going out in coronaland to vote in races I don’t care about.

  8. I know I should feel sorry for Boris Johnson, I know I should be the bigger man and wish him a speedy recovery.

    But honestly, I just don’t have it in me. My capacity to wish well for people who actively try to hurt others to enhance their own well-being and/or ego has been greatly diminished over the last 3.5 years.

    1. Kevin, there have turned out to be a lot more willfully hateful people in the United States than I thought there were. I have had to change my attitude toward a large part of the public, because they were not the people I hoped they were.

    2. Kevin, one of the people who have died from the Coronavirus is country musician/songwriter Joe Diffie. Joe Diffie wrote a song successfully covered by Jo Dee Messina called “My Give a Damn’s Busted.”

      I really want to care,
      I want to feel somethin’
      Let me dig a little deeper
      Naw
      Sorry
      Nothin’

    1. This is so damn dumb it must have come down straight from Trump. Or maybe that Stephen Miller peckerhead – the Nazi one, not the other Trumpsucker. And definitely not The Space Cowboy.

    2. Modly must think he’s Trump. He’s the only one who can get away with petulantly attacking a accomplished, distinguished public servant

  9. The States Rights thing is total bullshit. That’s always how it goes. The GOP cult wants to enforce rules on others, and calls anything that goes against their greed or destructive ‘rugged individuality’ that affects others unnecessary intrusion of government.

    The deep red bumfuck rural areas and states sure don’t mind the huge influx of federal funding they get from tax revenue in liberal states like California and New York, nor the liberal cities that exist within even red states that provide 80-90% of the tax revenue of the state.

    Here’s a new one to try: how about Cities Rights? Keep ALL of the tax revenue in major cities for infrastructure and Billy Bob in Bumfuck County can go bitch that the roads haven’t been paved in 30 years and the water main in the county is shit.

    As always, the GOP love to pick and choose what is ‘allowed’ as intervention and what counts as welfare or not. Here’s a quick tip: chances are if it benefits the wealthy or some brain dead rural voters themselves, they’ll support it. Otherwise, there’s no ‘small government’ philosophy: its a bunch of made up bullshit.

  10. “We have a thing called the Constitution, which I cherish”, Trump said at his daily news briefing, praising the decision of the governors.

    Joke of the Day.

  11. Hmm, I wonder what all the governors that still refuse to issue shelter-in-place orders have in common? Give me a minute or two, I’m sure it’ll come to me…

  12. I think the death rate is being under-reported, as cause of death looks like it is being ascribed to pneumonia and not COVID-19 in certain places. This idea is only anecdotal, largely because of discussions i have had with a good friend from law school who practices elder and probate law in Florida and what she is seeing on death certificates from two large counties in central Florida, particularly from a handful of nursing homes and one extremely large over 55 housing development.
    in the last month, more than half of the cases she has opened probate for had the cause of death listed as pneumonia, which is way higher than normal

    1. You make a good point. Although that is anecdotal smoke, one suspects that there may be fire behind it.

      1. I’ve heard the same about Russia – BIG jump in pneumonia deaths, relatively lower COVID numbers.

          1. We are an open and free society that has elected a stupid fucking pimp to our highest office. As he works to juke the statistics, it’s more important than ever that we have our bullshit detectors turned on and tuned in.

          2. When you’re right, you’re right. I wish to issue a sincere, full retraction to the entire SFP community, including my good friend Sweet Daddy Numbnuts. I have had time to reflect on the consequences of my words. Let the healing begin.

    2. The NY Times put together a map with the per capita cases, and my jaw dropped when I looked at the two counties in question.
      Map can be found here.

      Check on each county’s totals and look at the cases per 100,000 population. The dots are numbers of cases, so the big counties like Orange, Broward, Dade and Palm Beach are going to be huge. It is the mid-size counties that are the ones to look at. (It helps if you know Florida geography, since something like having an interstate go through the county could make the numbers wildly different in adjoining counties, just because of the interstate)

      The rural counties with small populations have a fairly small per capita number, or super high if there is a localized outbreak, which can be expected.
      I am seeing mid-size suburban counties that have much fewer cases than their neighbors on a per capita basis, even though they have similar demographics and population density. (This could be luck at this early stage, but that is unlikely)
      the one county my friend practices in with the huge number of pneumonia deaths has 1/3rd to 1/2 the per capita cases of the two surrounding counties, with no real explanation for it, as they share a main thoroughfare, and a similar suburban sprawl, and with little agricultural land.

      But that county is not alone. There are others that look suspicious with the same pattern of much lower per capita cases, even though the demographics and geography of neighboring counties are similar, but with much higher per capita counts)

  13. Wait, the assholes who own Hobby Lobby are acting like greedy, unethical assholes? Quelle Surprise!

    1. They’re Christian, don’t you know.

      “In late March of 2020, as the COVID-19 pandemic caused global business closings and U.S. citizens were increasingly being told to self quarantine, Hobby Lobby announced its stores would remain open, in defiance of lawfully executed stay at home or shelter in place orders issued by city, county, or state governments. Founder David Green, in a letter to employees, said his decision ‘was informed by a message from God bestowed upon his wife Barbara Green.’ Photos of signs at various Hobby Lobby stores have claimed Hobby Lobby is an essential business for its materials for making personal protective equipment, as well as homeschooling supplies. However, retailers specializing in the sale of craft supplies are not considered to be essential businesses per guidlines issued by the Department of Homeland Security.”

      1. “If I can’t get my half-yard of purple burlap, tht terrorists have already won!”

      2. Interestingly, the Holy Spirit also bestowed a message upon me. He said, “You won’t believe the April Fool’s prank I pulled on the Holly Lobby couple.”

        That is one funny bird. Beautiful plumage.

  14. Bolsonaro made some idiotic comment about ‘facing the Coronavirus like a man.’ This is interesting, because when campaigning for President, he was stabbed multiple times at a campaign event and had no problem being rushed to hospital.

  15. Give it up Bonk. The post of Pseudo-Goebbels is already firmly occupied by Hannity. But your stuff isn’t even good enough to qualify you for a Pseudo-Fritzche post.
    And now for some further adventures in idiocy:
    After McConnell’s interview with the odious Hugh Hewitt today,
    we now have the second official Trump Party Line.
    The first was that the Orange Buffoon was on top of everything.
    The second is that the Orange Buffoon was not on top of everything because the Evil Extremist Radical Socialist Democrat Party had concocted their Impeachment Hoax to prevent the heroic POTUS from being on top of everything.
    Not that any Trumpist will be bright enough to notice a problem there.

    1. Brobonk won’t give up. He is a Forever-Trumper. They are as convinced of their rightness as the Confederates of 1861. They are, and were, impervious to argument because their basic assumptions are wrong but unquestionable. The Confederate assumptions were that slavery was acceptable because black people were subhuman compared to whites, and that states rights were superior to federal authority. The Forever-Trumpers assume that the basic principles of the Republican Party are right and good, and that Trump is an acceptable President and at least adequate to perform his duties.

      Since these are assumptions, they are not susceptible to reason. Arguments against them are met, at best, with elaborate counter-arguments, the way conspiracy theorists deal with counter-evidence by making their conspiracies more and more elaborate. An example
      is the new argument that IF Trump has not dealt with the coronavirus perfectly, it is because he was distracted by the impeachment effort (whose legitimacy is, of course, dismissed out of hand ).

      The Confederates convictions led them to rebellion and war when their candidate lost the election of 1860. We shall see what happens in 2020. I wonder if Brobonk owns a rifle?

      1. One thing: the States’ Rights thing was a red herring. They were strongly opposed to States’ Rights unless they needed the argument to rationalize secession. For example, they had asked the Feds to deny the northern states (Vermont in particular) the right to oppose the Fugitive Slave Act.

        Of course I am a cynic, but I think that, except for a handful of constitutional scholars, nobody really cares about the principle of States’ Rights unless they disagree with the Feds at that moment. People want what they want, and will support the governmental entity that can deliver it.

        1. The slave states also wanted tracts against slavery that were distributed in the free states to be banned.

          1. Somehow States Rights did not allow for the right of a state to exclude slavery.
            Of course these same dingdongs thought the “farmers and shopkeepers of the North” would never dare stand up to the descendants of the Cavaliers, as they liked to think of themselves, if things got nasty. Seems they forgot who had actually won the English Civil War.

          2. 1.While many wars have either practical purposes are are for conquest, people tend to underplay the importance of ideology in conflicts.

            The term ‘wage slave’ originally developed from the slave states’ defense of the institution of slavery: “you free states think you’re so great? You get paid a wage and then are told to fend for yourselves. In contrast, we give our slaves room and board and take care of them. We may have slaves, but you’re wage slaves.”

            From what I’ve read, this ideological difference of opinion was an enormous cause of the conflict between the slave states and the free states.

            2.For the large slave owning plantation owners, there were no romantic notions of slavery, just a cold calculation of power. The large plantation owners controlled the slave state governments and they knew that, as long as slavery remained in their states, no non-slave using wealthy business people would invest in their states and compete for their control of the state government.

            Even without slavery, I’m not sure things that desire for power is any different now.

      2. I’ve voted more times for democrats than republicans in my lifetime. But at some point, you have to realize the party has gone completely insane. That’s not to say the republican party is perfect, it’s far from it.

        And I don’t give a shit about 1860. My feelings toward Trump are directly related to how much I dislike MSM, hollywood, communist sympathizers, etc. My eyes were opened 4 yrs ago, and I can’t unsee what has been done to this great president.

        And no, I’ve never owned a gun.

        1. You have an odd attribution to the countries problems I don’t understand. FOX News is mainstream media and pulls more viewers with propaganda than other outlets. You turn on Clear Channel radio at any point in the day and all you get is conservative talk radio. Viral nutsjobs like Alex Jones got rich off a crazy alt-right conspiracy platform.

          Way, WAY more people from the right-wing have gotten rich off of getting people like you to believe them. Somehow your outlash to societies problems is supporting the very people who caused it and make significant amounts of money off of people like you. You don’t have to follow CNN for news, there are plenty of other very neutral sources of news with the Associated Press, Reuters, C-SPAN, and PBS. They’re very dry and don’t tell you what to believe, but that’s not what you want is it? You want affirmation, all your eyes were opened to was making the wealthy more wealthy off of a lack of intelligence.

          Income inequity has gotten way worse in the last century, and it’s why now people have to be bailed out to survive this situation. The conservative agenda has caused this situation, and Donald Trump especially with his 2017 corporate tax cuts which were used for stock buybacks to raise executive compensation. Two weeks ago he said he didn’t like it being used for that, but what the hell else did you think would happen??? And why weren’t there measures in place that it must go to infrastructure or employee spending???

          Just like a lot of people who ‘opened’ their eyes, they’re more concerned with spite than policy. You see something tweeted from CNN or someone else and get upset for no good reason, then lash out. It’s a joke. You vote for POLICY and FACTS, not a bunch of bullshit you do or don’t want to hear when you control the mute button and what websites you go to.

          Grow up dumbass.

        2. Maybe not TO but you can sure as shit shit close your eyes to what has been done BY this “great” president.

  16. We should have done like Spain and gotten our test kits from China. Unfortunately, they just rejected 600 million imported kits because they were defective. Soon you’ll see why Trump insisted on developing our own tests. He is proving again why he is far ahead of the rest of us.

    Also, your numbers are extremely skewed towards lower population countries. Germany may be testing 10+ people out of every 1,000 – but they only have a population of 83 million. The U.S. has 327 million! It gets worse from there. Canada 38m, Spain 47m, Italy 60m, S. Korea 51.5m, Australia 25m. Are you afraid that if you give the total number tested, it will make Trump look good?

    Bottom line is the U.S. is the first country to test 1 million people. And we are currently testing 100,000/day, with accurate tests kits.

    1. I guess you’re smart enough to know your points are either irrelevant or wrong.

      On the irrelevant side: the size of the nation is irrelevant. The percentage tested shows the extent to which the disease has been monitored. If the nation has tested 10%, it has the situation under better control than if it has tested 3%. A low testing percentage also indicates that the number of total cases is probably quite underreported compared to a country that has tested a higher percentage of its people.

      But let’s assume that the size of the population is somehow relevant. Let’s combine our three largest states – Texas, California and Florida – to make a German-sized country. (89.6 million people). In those three states they have tested 120,000 people. Germany has tested a million. Let’s combine California and Florida, just because that combination has the same population as Italy. Those two states have tested 85 thousand people. Italy has tested 477,000.

      The point is that the USA should have tested two to three times as many by now, and that many parts of the country as crying for the test, as you undoubtedly know, meaning that they can’t do proper contact tracing.

      On the wrong side, the USA reached a million at the same time as Germany. You’d have to break it down by the minute to see which was first. Both countries were just below a million on the 29th. The USA will pass Germany soon, however, or maybe already has by the time you read this, since the Germans are testing 70,000 per day and the Americans are testing 100,000 per day.

      Once again, the point is that a million tests in a country of 80 million is still not enough in a pandemic, but is pretty darned good. In contrast, a million in a country of 320 million is – well only a fourth of pretty darned good.

      1. Fair points, Scoop, however Trump is hardly to blame for the size of our country. Again, he could have used the China kits if he wanted a shitload of false positives. Instead he chose to develop our own tests. That took some time, but at least the U.S. tests give accurate results.

        1. If Trump didn’t want to be President of a large country, he shouldn’t have taken the job. If he was as good as you think he is, he shouldn’t had any problems handling this job.

          1. This is the man who goes around telling people he’s better than Lincoln or FDR.
            Talk about having stuff on your plate: Lincoln had to fight a civil war while major figures in his cabinet were intriguing to replace him (looking at you Salmon Chase) and most of his party members in Congress were thinking he should be giving the highest commands to folks like John Fremont and Franz (“I fights mit”) Sigel. FDR had so much on his that he literally worked himself to death (that was the judgement of Robert Taft, not exactly an ardent New Dealer).
            Of course Trump, having inherited, having an old man who was an actual business genius in the same line of work, bullshitted, welshed, conned, and manipulated the gullible through life, is not capable of handling even one complex problem at a time. Poor baby.

        2. Brobonk said: “Trump is hardly to blame for the size of our country.”

          To give Brobonk his due, this is true. And to give Trump his due, he is doing his best to reduce the size of our country.

        3. False positives? That doesn’t sound so bad with our new “good” test giving 30 – 40% false negatives.

          1. False negatives. Very dangerous as health care workers and others are converted into super spreaders. This type of test (PCR) almost never, ever gives a false positive barring a sample contamination.

          2. I don’t know the truth, but the ID docs I’ve talked to say that the 60-70% is not correct (“fake news” one guy called it), and that the coronavirus PCR is just as good as any other PCR (>90% sensitivity) when the sample is correctly done.

            BUT . . . at if you don’t sample correctly you get a high percentage of false negatives. And the sampling technique is very uncomfortable if done correctly (sticking a swab in your nose, pushing all the way back, and swirling it around). I could see having a people who don’t routinely do them a lot bailing because of patient discomfort.

      2. I think there are a couple other things wrong.

        1.I’ve not heard anything about nations being initially reliant on China’s defective test kits. Given the success most other nations not led by the Trump Administration had with their initial testing, that sounds like an alternative fact.

        2.Even if early test kits did give false positives, the important thing was to test early, identify, contain and isolate. Given the exponential spread of this virus, even one day earlier starting this made an enormous difference. Obviously many false positives would have made the job of identifying the source of a local outbreak virtually impossible, but again, false positives from used early test kits are an alternative fact.

        3.For nations that got an early handle on this, the percentage of the population tested at this point is not as significant. If the outbreaks were contained with the people in those areas with outbreaks locked-down, the virus would not necessarily have gotten into wider communities and large percentages of the nation’s population would not have been exposed. The need for testing would have been for sampling purposes to ensure that the virus was not spreading and also to determine the percentage of the people who are asymptomatic. In short, the more effective use of testing immediately, the less *need* there is to do a great deal of tests.

        Before I studied economics, I was a junior level accountant, and before accounting software was common, auditing used to be done on a similar type of sampling basis. There were actually formulas to determine the amount of sampling of general ledger entries that needed to be performed based on the results of the internal control audit. The better the internal controls, the less need to audit the general ledger. Same thing with testing for this.

        1. One thing on the testing in the United States. I’m not normally a conspiracy theorist and I appreciate that the backlog in testing meant that there was going to be a spike in daily reported confirmed cases, but I find it a little odd that the number of confirmed cases in the United States is increasing by a fairly static 20,000 or so a day.

          One of the ways loony conspiracy theories work is to over-simplify a situation. So, since I don’t want to do that, I acknowledge:
          1.The Trump Administration is not administering the tests
          2.The testing numbers are not ‘fake news.’

          What is possible, I think, is that the CDC has been ordered to distribute the test kits to both the areas more likely to have virus cases and areas less likely to have virus cases. Given they are doing 100,000 tests a day apparently, and the confirmed cases are increasing by approximately 20,000 a day, they are already getting a 20% positive rate or so, but I suspect the Trump Administration is massaging the numbers as much as they can by the way they are distributing the test kits.

          I don’t have any positive evidence of this, but this is my personal conspiracy theory based on, I think, a rational look at the numbers.

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