Maybe Trump should have acted faster on COVID – for his own sake.

These political scientists have concluded that the coronavirus could impact the national political landscape, with the net result being harmful to conservatives. The logic:

– Older voters are more likely to die from coronavirus.
– Older voters are more likely to vote for Trump.
– The significant fatalities in Pennsylvania and Michigan, for example, could lose Trump enough voters to swing those states blue.

In my opinion, that is completely inaccurate.

Several reasons:

Even if all their assumptions were true, the math doesn’t work. As it currently stands, the death toll in Pennsylvania is likely to be no more than 5,000. Even assuming 4,000 of those are elderly (based on the national trend that 80% of fatalities are aged 65 or more), that would consist of about 2,200 Republicans and 1,800 democrats – a swing of only 400 votes. And that estimate is on the high end because there will likely be fewer than 5,000 fatalities, and Trump is likely to get less than 55% of the elderly vote against Biden (the red team won the 2018 mid-terms by only two points in the 65+ demographic). So the real swing may be just a couple hundred votes, even granting their assumptions.

But their assumptions are not valid. The major problem with their hypothesis lies in a fact they have ignored – that the outbreak disproportionately affects urban minorities – and those voters are overwhelmingly blue, even among the elderly. In the 2018 mid-term elections, elderly black voters voted 88% blue!

Here’s how the math works out, based on the 2018 mid-terms, considering only the lump sum of black voters plus white voters, and temporarily ignoring latinos, asians and others. I’m going to call that black/white elderly group the population sample, so I don’t have to keep retyping the above explanation each time:

Among people aged 65 and older, the ratio of white voters to black is 11-1.
White voters over 65 vote 57-43 red.
Black voters over 65 vote 88-12 blue.

Therefore:

If corona kills both races proportionately to the number of voters, then 53% of the deaths in the population sample will be Republicans.

BUT

If elderly black voters are 16% of the deaths instead of the 8% they represent in the population sample, then the majority of the deaths will be Democrats.

It is absolutely no stretch to think that the percentage of elderly people to die from corona in that population sample will be more than 16% black, possibly far more.

The crazy high percentage of black people who vote Democratic is the very reason why Republicans strive so mightily to keep them from the polls, and why even a slightly higher percentage of black people in any group can turn the group’s majority from red to blue.

24 thoughts on “Maybe Trump should have acted faster on COVID – for his own sake.

  1. The chicken shit ran from questions today. Good, I hope he finally shuts his fucking mouth going forward as a matter of course.

  2. The best hope for the country now would be if all of Trump’s supporters followed Dr. Trump’s medical advice.

    1. Well. I have mixed feelings about that. Here’s why:

      For the Presidential election, it makes no difference in the red and blue states. They will remain red and blue.

      In the purple states, their reckless behavior will start to turn those states blue, BUT … the very nature of a purple state is that reds and blues are mixed together in about a 50/50 ratio, which means as they kill themselves with recklessness, they take blues with them. The blues should die in a smaller proportion, of course, if they are not as reckless, but more blues will die than if everyone just followed the health guidelines.

      This is of particular significance to me since I’m an old fart living in a purple state!

      I do understand why people want to get back to work, however. Many Americans are one or two paychecks away from being unable to pay their unavoidable bills – housing, car, food. This is especially a problem for the self-employed, who (normally) can’t get unemployment benefits. If the government isn’t willing to support their quarantine, they need to make a living.

      And as for the ones who CAN get unemployment benefits, they are finding that their states (1) can’t process the claims in a timely manner and (2) are running out of money!

      So I can see why they want the world re-opened.

      1. I was only engaging in some black humor, which I assume you understood, but I’m not referring to getting people back to work (more on that later), I’m talking about Trump’s actual medical recommendations. First hydroxychloroquine and now his latest inanity about UV light and disinfectants. If only Trump supporters injected themselves with disinfectant, that would be a very selective way of reducing their numbers.

        Of course everyone want to get back to work. Of course this has been a terrible thing especially for those living near the edge. But the other side is we are only able to have this debate about reopening the economy is because we have been so far successful at flattening the curve and fortunately, outside of NYC, most never saw how much worse it could be.

        There are many yahoos out there who think that virology is just another political opinion. And once we reopen, there is a real possibility that a second coronavirus wave, on top of the influenza wave expected this fall, would be even worse.

        The other problem is that the relief money seems to be going first to those who least need it, but that’s America.

      2. Wait until the second wave hits…it’ll be “bring out your dead.” There’s scant evidence that the summer will slow this virus down…see Singapore or Equador.

  3. Back it up once. Are you saying that no one’s vote is going to change from four years ago?
    It might be that getting to know this turdburglar will change some minds. Sometimes bullshit *does* walk.

    1. The problem lies in the math. For every 100 elderly white people that die, the Republicans lose only 14 votes (57-43). But for every 100 elderly black people that die, the Republicans gain 76 votes (12-88).

      So if 1/6 or 1/7 of the combined deaths of those two groups are black people, it is approximately a wash. If the black ratio is lower than that, more Republicans die. If the black ratio is more than that, more Democrats die.

      It appears that the black ratio could be MUCH higher than that.

      Now, as to your point about people changing their minds – Trump’s approval ratings are the most consistent in history. There has never been anyone like him. As of this moment, RCP has him pegged at 46%. As of the mid-terms, he was at 43.5%. That’s not to say he can’t start to fall, but as of this second, it is not reasonable to expect the GOP to do significantly worse than they did in the mid-terms.

  4. Wait until it runs through Florida and hits those Republican heavy retirement communities like the Villages.
    And it may not just be the Coronavirus, but the sheer number of over 65 white Republican voters who have died of natural causes since 2016 far exceeds the margin of victory in more states than just WI, MI, and PA. You can add FLand AZ to that list as well and NC is almost there.

    1. Florida is the one state where their point may be accurate, given the high concentration of retirement communities which are overwhelmingly white.

      On the other hand, I keep expecting Florida’s fatality number to explode and has not. Perhaps that is because coronavirus spreads best at moderate heat and humidity, and Florida is very high in both.

      Or perhaps it just hasn’t taken hold yet.

  5. Your critiques are fair, assuming that the virus doesn’t spread too far. But their conclusions are based more on worst-case scenarios, so way more than the 5000 you mentioned in PA, and if it spreads that far, no group will likely have a very disproportionate infection rate, so the overall demographics would be reasonable to apply.

    Fatality rates could also end up higher in conservative-leaning voters, given the higher levels of science denialism and tendency to live further from hospitals that could treat serious cases.
    I really hope we don’t end up in the worst case, though, even if it did mean ousting Trump and the other clowns.

  6. To quote Lee Atwater:
    “You’re getting so abstract now [that] you’re talking about Covid19, and all these things you’re talking about are totally healthcare things and a byproduct of them is [that] blacks get hurt worse than whites.”

    I might be misquoting here but somehow it still totally applies.

  7. In his latest genius comment, he just suggested blasting people with UV Rays to kill the virus on the body, and somehow getting it under the skin should be tested. Then upped his game and suggested testing injecting bleach or isopropyl alcohol for a “cleaning” – in his own words.

    I think this is rock bottom.

    1. Is there something wrong with him? No kidding. He has played some bad hands in the past, but he now seems to be missing a few face cards from the deck.

      As my friends in Texas used to say, “The gate’s down and the lights are flashin’, but the train ain’t comin’.”

    2. I hope to hell this is rock bottom, but I’ve been let down so many times.

      He’s lost his fucking mind, to the extent that he ever had one to start with. Admitting that now (and acting) could salvage the Republican party. It would be worth it, though, for all the lives – and dollars – it would save.

        1. On the one hand, this is a really shitty job of walking it back. On the other, the simple sonofabitch at least realizes he *needs* to walk it back. One step at a time, you stupid wet diaper of a president…

        2. Throughout history, the one distinguishing trait of the great leaders is sarcasm in the face of human suffering.

          1. Very true, fwald. Very few people realize how sarcastic Lincoln’s delivery of the Gettysburg Address was. And radio allowed FDR to roll his eyes all the time during his fireside chats!

            Of course, Trump is just lying to cover up the fact that he spews out “scientific” ideas the same way a 7 year old child does, but your point still stands.

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