The stats: Coronavirus mapped and quantified.

ADDED 5/25: Sunday’s numbers:

The USA:

1. Sunday’s fatalities were fewer in number than last Sunday’s. That means 16 of the past 17 days have been below the same day on the previous week.

2. The USA experienced the lowest number of fatalities since March 29.

3. It was the first time since March 30 that the USA was NOT the country with the most fatalities. On that date in late March it was Italy; on Sunday it was Brazil. In between, the USA had a streak just short of DiMaggio’s – 54 in a row.

 

3 Weeks Ago 2 Weeks Ago Last Week This Week
Friday 1,897 1,687 1,595 1,293
Saturday 1,691 1,422 1,218 1,036
Sunday 1,153 750 865 617
Monday 1,324 1,008 1,003
Tuesday 2,350 1,630 1,552
Wednesday 2,528 1,772 1,461
Thursday 2,129 1,715 1,418

World:


In terms of daily fatalities per capita, the Three Blind Trumps took spots 1-2-6 on Saturday, but the USA improved as noted above and the UK did even better – its best day since March 23rd.

(Bolsonaro is called the Trump of Brazil and BoJo is called the British Trump.)

ADDED 5/24: A massive new study puts the kibosh on hydroxychloroquine. A study of 96,000 hospitalized coronavirus patients on six continents found that those who took the drug had a significantly higher risk of death compared with those who did not. People treated with hydroxychloroquine were also more likely to develop a type of irregular heart rhythm, or arrhythmia.

“It’s one thing not to have benefit, but this shows distinct harm. If there was ever hope for this drug, this is the death of it.”

I thought it was dishonest for Trump to be shilling for the drug when it seemed to have no benefit, but now that I know it actually kills people, he absolutely should tell his followers to use it. He should especially push this message in the purple states! If you really trust Trump, take mass quantities of this drug, the more the merrier!

ADDED 5/23: One study estimates that 24 states still have uncontrolled coronavirus spread. The article also cites other studies with results that are similar, but not identical.

ADDED 5/22: American billionaires got $434 billion richer during the pandemic

UPDATED 5/22: An MIT study, Will Coronavirus Pandemic Diminish by Summer?, had previously suggested that 90% of transmission occurs within a narrow temperature band (37 to 63 F) and a limited band of absolute humidity. The scientists did not claim that transmission ceases outside those temperature and humidity bands, but that the spread occurs more slowly. A newer study from Harvard also shows that summer weather is beneficial, but the study also stresses that weather can’t stop the spread without additional proactive measures from humans.

Our projections suggest warmer temperature, more humidity, and moderate outdoor UV exposure may offer a modest reduction in reproductive number; however, upcoming changes in weather alone will NOT be enough to fully contain the transmission of COVID-19.

ADDED 5/21: Sweden still has a long, hard road ahead, based on its stay-open strategy, because it has the highest current fatality rate in Europe, and only 7% of the residents of Stockholm have developed antibodies. Sweden’s plan has been an utter failure in every way. Not only have they emerged with that high fatality rate, but nothing was accomplished by that sacrifice. “Data released from the country’s central bank and a leading Swedish think tank show that the economy will be just as badly hit as its European neighbors, if not worse.”

ADDED 5/22: Another 2.4 million workers filed new unemployment claims last week. Since efforts to the contain coronavirus pandemic nine weeks ago, more than 38.6 million Americans have sought unemployment benefits. An analysis of the coronavirus pandemic’s effects on the labor market estimates that 42% of recent layoffs will result in permanent job loss.

ADDED 5/21: Black Americans are dying of Covid-19 at three times the rate of white people

ADDED 5/20: The big question comes up again – Can people be reinfected by COVID-19? Thirteen sailors on the Teddy Roosevelt, all considered to have recovered and all having tested negative at least twice, have exhibited symptoms again after returning to duty, and have tested positive. “Whether the afflicted sailors were reinfected or still had the virus after multiple negative tests remains under investigation.”

ADDED 5/19: New polling shows that 49 of the 50 governors have a better approval rating than Trump for their handling of the pandemic. The one exception: Kemp of Georgia. Republican governors dominate both the top and the bottom of the list, with all the Dems in the middle: six of the top seven are Republicans; seven of the bottom eight are Republicans.

ADDED 5/17: This can’t be good: “Hundreds of villages locked down in northeastern China after fresh coronavirus outbreak.” China had almost eliminated the stubborn disease.

ADDED 5/16: President Trump actually said this in opposition to “overrated” testing: “When you test, you find something is wrong with people. If we didn’t do any testing, we would have very few cases.”

ADDED 5/16: Remember when Trump asked, “What do you have to lose?” about hydroxychloroquine? The answer is “your life.” “Clinical trials, academic research and scientific analysis indicate that the danger of hydroxychloroquine is a significantly increased risk of death

ADDED 5/14: The number of fatalities caused by the spread of the coronavirus pandemic seems to be understated by about 20,000 to 30,000. “Many Covid-19 deaths were simply listed as some variant of ‘respiratory failure’ or ‘multisystem organ failure.’”

UPDATED 5/9: In a bizarre irony, hospitals are making mass lay-offs in the middle of the coronavirus pandemic. The institutions are suffering financially because they have had to eliminate all the most profitable parts of their business in order to treat corona victims. In all, 1.4 million health care workers lost their jobs in April, 135,000 of those in hospitals.

ADDED 4/29: New evidence reveals: “Coronavirus infections greatly outnumber confirmed covid-19 cases, potentially by a factor of 10 or more.” My guess it that it’s somewhere between 3-to-1 and 6-to-1. The USA has a ratio of about 18 cases per death. The proper ratio, based upon South Korea and other countries, is probably between 50 and 100 cases per death, indicating a fatality rate between 1% and 2%. That’s a wide range because the calculation is an oversimplification on my part. There are many factors going into the fatality rate, and it’s not necessarily fair to compare areas, but my guess is probably in the right ballpark.

ADDED 4/27: U.S. deaths soared in the early weeks of the pandemic, far exceeding the number attributed to covid-19

NEW 3/28: The data reveal that covid-19 is much more dangerous for men. The data are consistent from country to country: men make up 72% of the intensive care unit admissions in Spain, 73% in France, 75% in Norway, 71% in the UK. While researchers cannot yet determine how much of the gender disparity can be attributed to behavioral components, it seems clear that the significance of the gap across cultures means that there must be some biological explanation.

March 9:

 

March 4: A lot of people will have this, and it’s very mild. They will get better very rapidly. They don’t even see a doctor. They don’t even call a doctor.”

Feb 26: “We have thousands or hundreds of thousands of people that get better, just by, you know, even going to work. Some of them go to work, but they get better.”

Feb 26: We’re going to be pretty soon at only five people. And we could be at just one or two people over the next short period of time..”

Feb 26: We’re going down, not up. We’re going very substantially down, not up..”

Feb 26: The 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero.”

Feb 24:

 


The Dow was at 27,960 that day. One month later it was at 18,592.

Jan 24:

 

Jan 22: We have it totally under control. It’s one person coming in from China, and we have it under control. It’s going to be just fine.”

18 thoughts on “COVID-19 update

  1. Regarding GOP Governor’s polls:
    Most of the top GOP governors lead blue states. Its almost like if your job is potentially on the line its probably a good idea to be competent. DeWine is the only outlier here. He cheated to get into office but like Kasich he seems to understand that doing your job properly is best way to keep your job.

    Most of the rest are various shades of evil or stupid but are in little danger of losing their offices.

  2. DeSantis is at 58%…. He is firing everybody who is questioning the data.
    Reynolds was so competent at her job, she ended up in quarantine, and is still at 60%.
    I guess you have be burying your citizens in mass graves before your approval rating dips below 50%….

      1. I think Americans tend to rally around their leaders in time of crisis. As I recall, each of the Bushes was in the 90s in their darkest hours.

  3. Glad to see nearly another half trillion dollars of wealth dropped on the same 200 or so people who already own half the world’s worth of it.

    Meanwhile you have fucktards like Lindsay Graham and Mitch McConnell bitching about $600 to live being too much incentive for people barely making ends meet from going back to wage slavery.

    Feel free to explain what contributions to the human race have Jeff Bezos and Mark Zuckerberg made in the past month to ‘earn’ that wealth. Oh I forgot, they’ve contributed so much already to society with getting a shitty trinket mailed a few days faster and cheaper than otherwise, and an overglorified bulletin board with pictures and bullshit.

    Here, obviously you guys deserve to live like gods, because of rugged individualism and all that. Here’s some more money.

    1. Such is the world as it has come to be, Indy. Money is the measure of all things (I had somehere – Steve, perhaps? agree with exactly that statement) and billionaire and their corporations buy our politicians, who then consider it their highest duty to carry out their requests. “Beau of the Fifth Column” just did a very good video about how Mitch McConnell’s corporate campaign contributions line up exactly with his political positions.

  4. The latest from Imperial College:

    We predict that increased mobility following relaxation of social distancing will lead to resurgence of transmission, keeping all else constant. We predict that deaths over the next two-month period could exceed current cumulative deaths by greater than two-fold, if the relationship between mobility and transmission remains unchanged. Our results suggest that factors modulating transmission such as rapid testing, contact tracing and behavioural precautions are crucial to offset the rise of transmission associated with loosening of social distancing.

    Overall, we show that while all US states have substantially reduced their reproduction numbers, we find no evidence that any state is approaching herd immunity or that its epidemic is close to over.

  5. UncleScoopy says: “I thought it was dishonest for Trump to be shilling for the drug [hydroxychloroquin] when it seemed to have no benefit, but now that I know it actually kills people, he absolutely should tell his followers to use it. He should especially push this message in the purple states! If you really trust Trump, take mass quantities of this drug, the more the merrier!”

    I know it is wrong to feel this way, but I do too. At least I hope Trump guzzles it.

    1. Yes. Very wrong. I was being hyperbolic. I really don’t want to see anybody get sick and die unless they are homicidal or otherwise psychopathic.

      But if people die believing Trump’s word, that pretty much illustrates natural selection, doesn’t it?

  6. What do you say to people who have been actively taking HCQ daily for years?
    Strange how an FDA approved drug is suddenly dangerous.
    Leader of the free world is taking it, but “orange man bad”!

    1. “Leader of the Free World”. There’s a laugh. Who with a brain in his head would let themselves be led by Trump? You, odinofknowledge?

    2. HCQ is an effective treatment for Lupus.
      HCQ is not an effective treatment for Covid19.

      Its almost like we have different drugs to combat different problems. What drug is Trump going to off up as a miracle cure? Viagra? A good solid erection will fix it!

    3. You know what other drugs people have been taking for years?

      Cancer chemotherapy. FDA approved drugs (for the treatment of cancers). Also dangerous. Maybe Trump should take some of those, too.

      But thanks for boiling down for us the essence of Trump Voter intelligence.

    4. It’s not that complicated. If you take the drug for malaria (for example), you are less likely to die than if you do not take it. If you take the drug for coronavirus, you are more likely to die than if you don’t. In both cases there is approximately an equal chance the drug will harm you (I suppose), but in the case of malaria the positive effects are greater than the potential negatives. In the case of corona, absent any positive effects, there is only the chance of harm.

      It is also possible that the drug interacts with the virus in a way that is dangerous, so that it produces additional side effects not seen when it is used to treat malaria, but that would be pure speculation on my part. There is no scientific evidence to support that.

      Needless to say, if you are completely healthy, there is only harm because there is no possible benefit. The drug is not a vaccine. Nobody has ever claimed at any time that taking it will help to prevent the virus, and there is not even any suggestion similar to that.

      But if you don’t believe the evidence, please take as much HCQ as you can. Grind it up and sprinkle it on your eggs instead of pepper!

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