The stats: Coronavirus mapped and quantified:

ADDED 6/1: Sunday’s numbers:

The Sunday numbers never make sense any week, but for what it’s worth, the fatality rate in the USA was about the same as last Sunday, while Canada and Peru were the only countries to top 3.0 deaths per million population. Sweden, more often than not in the top spot on the fatality rate chart, reported no fatalities at all!

In terms of total daily fatalities, the Three Blind Trumps only took the top two spots, as the UK dropped to 8th. Mexico held on to the #3 spot, but two new countries crept into the top five.

1. USA 638
2. Brazil 480
3. Mexico 364
4. India 223
5. Canada 222

USA daily COVID fatalities. Increases over the previous week are highlighted in red.

4 Weeks Ago 3 Weeks Ago 2 weeks Ago Last Week This Week
Friday 1,897 1,687 1,595 1,293 1,212
Saturday 1,691 1,422 1,218 1,036 1,015
Sunday 1,153 750 865 617 638
Monday 1,324 1,008 1,003 505
Tuesday 2,350 1,630 1,552 774
Wednesday 2,528 1,772 1,461 1,535
Thursday 2,129 1,715 1,418 1,223

ADDED 5/31: France says, “Oops. Maybe we had the coronavirus before China!” “If confirmed, this is evidence that the virus was spreading in Europe well before COVID-19 had been officially identified in China.” At the same time, Chinese scientists have cast doubt on the theory that the virus originated in that famous wet market.

The South China Morning Post, citing Chinese government data, reported that the first documented case of someone in China’s suffering from COVID-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus, occurred Nov. 17. The new French data suggests that their first case dates back to November 16th!

The mystery deepens!

ADDED 5/30: Vietnam pulled off the ultimate miracle. They had 97 million people, a long border with China, daily flights from Wuhan … and a COVID-19 death total of ZERO! Not one death. Not even one elderly person. How did they do it? All of my guesses were wrong. I figured it was being bathed in the blood of Jesus, having the localities bid against each other for PPEs, downplaying the virus as an alarmist hoax, shilling for unproven drug cures, investigating bleach cocktails, telling the regional governors to open their areas back up without meeting the criteria set by the health ministry, having the highest national officials refuse to wear masks, and holding large rallies as late as March. Damn, I was SO close! It turns out the true solution was for their prime minister to place his idiot son-in-law in charge of co-ordinating the medical supply chain. That would have been my next guess!

UPDATED 5/30: The number of American fatalities caused by the spread of the coronavirus pandemic seems to be understated by about 20,000 to 30,000. “Many Covid-19 deaths were simply listed as some variant of ‘respiratory failure’ or ‘multisystem organ failure.’” “U.S. deaths soared in the early weeks of the pandemic, far exceeding the number attributed to covid-19” At least two states, Florida and South Carolina, are suspected of falsifying the COVID numbers.

UPDATED 5/30: Another 2.1 million workers filed new unemployment claims last week. That’s another very high number, but there is some good news. The number of continuing claims dropped by 4 million, therefore the number of unemployed people seems to have dropped. That’s a ray of hope, but an analysis of the coronavirus pandemic’s effects on the labor market estimates that 42% of recent layoffs will result in permanent job loss.

UPDATED 5/27: Sweden over-Trumps the Trump Trio

Sweden’s stay-open strategy appears to have been a complete failure in every respect, because (1) it has the highest current fatality rate in the world over the past two weeks; (2) the most recent numbers are not moving in the correct direction; (3) herd immunity is far in the future (only 7% of the residents of Stockholm have developed antibodies); (4) “the economy will be just as badly hit as its European neighbors, if not worse.”

ADDED 5/27:

ADDED 5/24: A massive new study puts the kibosh on hydroxychloroquine. A study of 96,000 hospitalized coronavirus patients on six continents found that those who took the drug had a significantly higher risk of death compared with those who did not. People treated with hydroxychloroquine were also more likely to develop a type of irregular heart rhythm, or arrhythmia.

“It’s one thing not to have benefit, but this shows distinct harm. If there was ever hope for this drug, this is the death of it.”

ADDED 5/22: American billionaires got $434 billion richer during the pandemic

UPDATED 5/22: An MIT study, Will Coronavirus Pandemic Diminish by Summer?, had previously suggested that 90% of transmission occurs within a narrow temperature band (37 to 63 F) and a limited band of absolute humidity. The scientists did not claim that transmission ceases outside those temperature and humidity bands, but that the spread occurs more slowly. A newer study from Harvard also shows that summer weather is beneficial, but the study also stresses that weather can’t stop the spread without additional proactive measures from humans.

“Our projections suggest warmer temperature, more humidity, and moderate outdoor UV exposure may offer a modest reduction in reproductive number; however, upcoming changes in weather alone will NOT be enough to fully contain the transmission of COVID-19.”

ADDED 5/21: Black Americans are dying of Covid-19 at three times the rate of white people

ADDED 5/20: The big question comes up again – Can people be reinfected by COVID-19? Thirteen sailors on the Teddy Roosevelt, all considered to have recovered and all having tested negative at least twice, have exhibited symptoms again after returning to duty, and have tested positive. “Whether the afflicted sailors were reinfected or still had the virus after multiple negative tests remains under investigation.”

ADDED 5/19: New polling shows that 49 of the 50 governors have a better approval rating than Trump for their handling of the pandemic. The one exception: Kemp of Georgia. Republican governors dominate both the top and the bottom of the list, with all the Dems in the middle: six of the top seven are Republicans; seven of the bottom eight are Republicans.

ADDED 5/16: President Trump actually said this in opposition to “overrated” testing: “When you test, you find something is wrong with people. If we didn’t do any testing, we would have very few cases.”

UPDATED 5/9: In a bizarre irony, hospitals are making mass lay-offs in the middle of the coronavirus pandemic. The institutions are suffering financially because they have had to eliminate all the most profitable parts of their business in order to treat corona victims. In all, 1.4 million health care workers lost their jobs in April, 135,000 of those in hospitals.

ADDED 4/29: New evidence reveals: “Coronavirus infections greatly outnumber confirmed covid-19 cases, potentially by a factor of 10 or more.” My guess it that it’s somewhere between 3-to-1 and 6-to-1. The USA has a ratio of about 18 cases per death. The proper ratio, based upon South Korea and other countries, is probably between 50 and 100 cases per death, indicating a fatality rate between 1% and 2%. That’s a wide range because the calculation is an oversimplification on my part. There are many factors going into the fatality rate, and it’s not necessarily fair to compare areas, but my guess is probably in the right ballpark.

NEW 3/28: The data reveal that covid-19 is much more dangerous for men. The data are consistent from country to country: men make up 72% of the intensive care unit admissions in Spain, 73% in France, 75% in Norway, 71% in the UK. While researchers cannot yet determine how much of the gender disparity can be attributed to behavioral components, it seems clear that the significance of the gap across cultures means that there must be some biological explanation.

March 9:

March 4: A lot of people will have this, and it’s very mild. They will get better very rapidly. They don’t even see a doctor. They don’t even call a doctor.”

Feb 26: “We have thousands or hundreds of thousands of people that get better, just by, you know, even going to work. Some of them go to work, but they get better.”

Feb 26: We’re going to be pretty soon at only five people. And we could be at just one or two people over the next short period of time..”

Feb 26: We’re going down, not up. We’re going very substantially down, not up..”

Feb 26: The 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero.”

Feb 24:

The Dow was at 27,960 that day. One month later it was at 18,592.

Jan 24:

Jan 22: We have it totally under control. It’s one person coming in from China, and we have it under control. It’s going to be just fine.”

35 thoughts on “COVID-19 update

  1. Regarding GOP Governor’s polls:
    Most of the top GOP governors lead blue states. Its almost like if your job is potentially on the line its probably a good idea to be competent. DeWine is the only outlier here. He cheated to get into office but like Kasich he seems to understand that doing your job properly is best way to keep your job.

    Most of the rest are various shades of evil or stupid but are in little danger of losing their offices.

  2. DeSantis is at 58%…. He is firing everybody who is questioning the data.
    Reynolds was so competent at her job, she ended up in quarantine, and is still at 60%.
    I guess you have be burying your citizens in mass graves before your approval rating dips below 50%….

      1. I think Americans tend to rally around their leaders in time of crisis. As I recall, each of the Bushes was in the 90s in their darkest hours.

  3. Glad to see nearly another half trillion dollars of wealth dropped on the same 200 or so people who already own half the world’s worth of it.

    Meanwhile you have fucktards like Lindsay Graham and Mitch McConnell bitching about $600 to live being too much incentive for people barely making ends meet from going back to wage slavery.

    Feel free to explain what contributions to the human race have Jeff Bezos and Mark Zuckerberg made in the past month to ‘earn’ that wealth. Oh I forgot, they’ve contributed so much already to society with getting a shitty trinket mailed a few days faster and cheaper than otherwise, and an overglorified bulletin board with pictures and bullshit.

    Here, obviously you guys deserve to live like gods, because of rugged individualism and all that. Here’s some more money.

    1. Such is the world as it has come to be, Indy. Money is the measure of all things (I had somehere – Steve, perhaps? agree with exactly that statement) and billionaire and their corporations buy our politicians, who then consider it their highest duty to carry out their requests. “Beau of the Fifth Column” just did a very good video about how Mitch McConnell’s corporate campaign contributions line up exactly with his political positions.

  4. The latest from Imperial College:

    We predict that increased mobility following relaxation of social distancing will lead to resurgence of transmission, keeping all else constant. We predict that deaths over the next two-month period could exceed current cumulative deaths by greater than two-fold, if the relationship between mobility and transmission remains unchanged. Our results suggest that factors modulating transmission such as rapid testing, contact tracing and behavioural precautions are crucial to offset the rise of transmission associated with loosening of social distancing.

    Overall, we show that while all US states have substantially reduced their reproduction numbers, we find no evidence that any state is approaching herd immunity or that its epidemic is close to over.

  5. UncleScoopy says: “I thought it was dishonest for Trump to be shilling for the drug [hydroxychloroquin] when it seemed to have no benefit, but now that I know it actually kills people, he absolutely should tell his followers to use it. He should especially push this message in the purple states! If you really trust Trump, take mass quantities of this drug, the more the merrier!”

    I know it is wrong to feel this way, but I do too. At least I hope Trump guzzles it.

    1. Yes. Very wrong. I was being hyperbolic. I really don’t want to see anybody get sick and die unless they are homicidal or otherwise psychopathic.

      But if people die believing Trump’s word, that pretty much illustrates natural selection, doesn’t it?

  6. What do you say to people who have been actively taking HCQ daily for years?
    Strange how an FDA approved drug is suddenly dangerous.
    Leader of the free world is taking it, but “orange man bad”!

    1. “Leader of the Free World”. There’s a laugh. Who with a brain in his head would let themselves be led by Trump? You, odinofknowledge?

    2. HCQ is an effective treatment for Lupus.
      HCQ is not an effective treatment for Covid19.

      Its almost like we have different drugs to combat different problems. What drug is Trump going to off up as a miracle cure? Viagra? A good solid erection will fix it!

    3. You know what other drugs people have been taking for years?

      Cancer chemotherapy. FDA approved drugs (for the treatment of cancers). Also dangerous. Maybe Trump should take some of those, too.

      But thanks for boiling down for us the essence of Trump Voter intelligence.

    4. It’s not that complicated. If you take the drug for malaria (for example), you are less likely to die than if you do not take it. If you take the drug for coronavirus, you are more likely to die than if you don’t. In both cases there is approximately an equal chance the drug will harm you (I suppose), but in the case of malaria the positive effects are greater than the potential negatives. In the case of corona, absent any positive effects, there is only the chance of harm.

      It is also possible that the drug interacts with the virus in a way that is dangerous, so that it produces additional side effects not seen when it is used to treat malaria, but that would be pure speculation on my part. There is no scientific evidence to support that.

      Needless to say, if you are completely healthy, there is only harm because there is no possible benefit. The drug is not a vaccine. Nobody has ever claimed at any time that taking it will help to prevent the virus, and there is not even any suggestion similar to that.

      But if you don’t believe the evidence, please take as much HCQ as you can. Grind it up and sprinkle it on your eggs instead of pepper!

  7. This “study” is BS, seems to me. I only skimmed but I gather they studied a grand total of 1 subject who tested positive but had been asymptomatic. Contract trading some 500 exposures, no one else got sick. But many were wearing masks. So a possible conclusion is simply that social distancing is effective. Kind of like fatality rate (CFR) being a function of care. We try to “flatten the curve” specifically to suppress CFR due to care saturation. What did the silent spread look like when we all believed only the sick were contagious and due to shortage of masks (for medical workers) essentially everyone was going around without a mask? Well, we can’t really answer that.

  8. “Infectivity of some asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 carriers might be weak“

    Well, enough weasel words in there to form a non conclusion.

  9. The point is science makes nuthin-burger claims when it’s bad science. Media collude w sci hype cuz clickbait. Liars weasel cuz respectable coverage detects qualifiers as inoculating while receptive ears take at “face value”. No lose. Point of pointing out nuthin-burgers is so at least we few non-idiots acknowledge what’s goin on. I called BS cuz that’s what’s goin on here.

    1. “Science” isn’t claiming anything here. I clicked expecting to see another example of how reporters are only good at doing two stories: This Is A Universal Cure, or This Is A Deadly Poison. Any detail more complex than that is omitted, and in an internet age where it would be dead easy to link to the underlying paper, they can’t be bothered to.
      The cnn article isn’t even that. It doesn’t report science – there was no hypothesis, no experimentation, no analysis. It’s closer in spirit to a couple of accountants pissing on each other. Call it a steaming pile if you want (& I will agree with you), but don’t file it in the Science drawer.

      1. With respect, I dunno wha you’re talkin bout. Scoop’s topmost entry added 5/25 is linked to PubMedCentral full article/open access. Tanner’s “weasel words”/”non conclusion” followup is quoting this *science* paper’s conclusion–and final words. Sorry, science drawer. Plop.

        1. OK, fair enough. I was meaning the cnn article linked a few jumps up in the comments.
          Reading the paper, this is a retrospective study of everyone who contacted *one* asymptomatic carrier. Of course you can’t draw broad conclusions from that. That’s why all the weaseling – they’re basically saying “Don’t read too much into it (especially don’t start acting like everything’s cool now), but here’s some data”.
          In normal times, this wouldn’t be a story, but here we are.

  10. China is a totalitarian dictatorship. I give their ‘studies’ as much credence as the homeopathy and essential oil nutjobs.

    On a positive note, Twitter has finally stepped in and started to tag Trump’s bullshit lies with factual information. I hope he goes insane, him and his supporters both, over this finally happening.

    You’ll hear the usual bullshit free speech shit, as if the world and everyone else’s dime is their own personal platform to yap a bunch of schizophrenic nonsense to everyone they can. Hope they get all locked down and their bullshit is off major platforms forever.

    And tell Billy Bob from Bumfuck, Alabama with the gun and Trump flag that once he’s done cooking meth and fucking his sister to go get his GED and learn how to put together his own server and platform if any of them have a problem with it.

    1. While I don’t entirely disagree with every sentiment you express, it does seem to me you’re hyperventilating. Yes, China has trouble with credibility, openness & seriousness. OTOH, they did marshall an enormous epidemic response after initial kneejerk attempts to hide the news. Wish we could claim as much. Meanwhile, in quite a few fields of science the whole world & the US at the top of the list is suffering a loss of traction by the mainstream. (Read: inability to reach meaningful conclusions.) To which the fringes respond by coopting our increasingly lame pop sci sources to attack that mainstream that they feel victimized by. Because to the incompetent, being asked to breathe fresh air reeks of control.

      1. What looks like a loss of traction may be just you (& me & everybody) wishing that the underlying physical reality was simpler. You get it, then you’re not immune? That’s a new one to me, it feels unfair.
        On top of that, you’ve got President Scheisskopf playing 3-card monte with the N95s and pretending that he’s doing something by naming the project Operation Speedy Speedy GoFast and all the unnecessary resulting deaths.
        Still, there are vaccines in the works. All is not lost, all is only misplaced.

      2. You’ve built a premise on a broken foundation though. You can’t say their response has been great, because as you said, have have trouble with credibility and openness.

        Sure they can present and SAY what their response is, but when they manipulate numbers to present it that way so that companies like Apple feel comfortable opening up Foxconn again – there is very obviously an ulterior motive.

        They’re Big Brother of 1984. They’ve still went so far as jailing and ‘reprogramming’ journalists who’ve tried to talk about the response. They’re pushing hard for the annexation of Hong Kong’s autonomy, as well as manipulating government in Taiwan to push representatives that are ‘pro unification.’

        I don’t consider anything they do or say to be valid, unless it comes from an outside source or free media contacts inside the country who avoid the police.

    2. Aw, don’t come down on Billy Bob. After a tough day of cooking the Devil’s Peanut Brittle, that sheep stood him up. And his sister was *right*there*, what was he supposed to do?

  11. Just a comment on the Swedish numbers on the worldometers site. Just look at the linear graphs on both total cases and total deaths. That’s some scary stuff, it just keeps on going without levelling out. And next to it (geographically), looking at the same stats, Norway hasn’t had a death since May 21 (as of the 27th). It shows two completely different ways of dealing with the same thing.

        1. Well, if you’re a Darwin Libertarian, you’d say that they are trimming the weak and 5 years from now will come out the other side younger and stronger than everyone else.

          But . . . yeah.

  12. If I can make one suggestion: given the questionable weekend death count figures,and that, it seems these deaths are reported sometime over the week, it might also be useful to report the weekly death count (from Monday to Sunday, I guess) and not just the daily death count.

  13. Five states on Friday eclipsed their previous records for new covid-19 cases. Mississippi, Utah, Wisconsin, South Carolina and Arizona all set new highs in the daily reporting of new positive cases of the virus.

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