It now seems certain that Biden will win the popular vote (96% likelihood). In fact, the Sleepy One has about a 93% chance to get more than 50% of the vote. Of course, that is irrelevant, but 538 feels that Biden’s chances also look excellent in the Electoral College.
The odds makers have a different take on it. Based on the odds, Trump has an implied 40% chance of winning the Presidency again. “On the 12th October 2016, Donald Trump’s 2016 election odds implied he only had a 19.1% chance of defeating Hillary Clinton. Therefore, according to sportsbooks, Trump is in a much better situation this time round.”
A salient fact is that 75% of the money has been wagered on Trump in recent weeks.
All Trump needs to do is…
1) Hold ME-2 & NE-2 (likely).
2) Hold the core 3 of AZ, FL, NC (likely).
3) Win one of the Rust Belt 4 – PA, MN, MI, or WI. That’s 270.
Hate to break it to you guys, but it looks like you’re in for another 4 years.
LOL @ ‘all you have to do’ and pointing to likely when he’s behind in the likely category, not to mentioned very behind in all of the rust belt states.
All Biden has to do is get 100,000+ more votes in the Rust Belt states Hillary completely ignored in 2016, that he’s consistently trending strong in to win.
I’m guessing you won’t be back to eat crow, per your usual pattern here when you’re blatantly wrong.
One other thought, vis-a-vis 75% of bettors having put money on Trump recently: so what? Are we now deluding ourselves into thinking that gamblers are more intelligent than everyone else? That they have some sort of insight into the election that no one else has?
I’ll stick with Nate Silver and proven statistical analysis, thanks.
I’ll never understand peoples’ fascination with betting markets, as if they’re some sort of modern day Oracle of Delphi — they’re frequently laughably wrong. One election where the candidate with the lower odds of winning pulls it out, and everyone’s ready to throw away everything that’s proven mostly accurate for decades… go figure.
Yeah betters have great history here. Lets look back two years ago, from USA Today:
“Think a blue wave is coming in the midterm election that will sweep out Republicans and usher in a Democratically-controlled Congress?
Don’t bet on it, gamblers on at least one online betting site are saying.
The odds on MyBookie favor Republicans maintaining hold of their majority, even as political forecaster Nate Silver says there is an 84.9 percent chance of a Democratic victory.
As of Sunday, the odds of the GOP keeping the House are at -140. That means you would need to bet $140 on the Republicans to win $100 if they stay in the majority. The Democrats are at +110, meaning a $100 bet would win you $110 if the Democrats manage to wrest control of the House. ”
Nate Silver is 87% for Biden this time around currently. There’s really no context for these bets, apparently its even illegal to bet on the election in the US (although there are workarounds.) They may be limited on action. In other words, this line isn’t exactly given the same attention as the Super Bowl.
Also, a new poll showed Biden at +10 in Pennsylvania, which is the key to the entire thing. Trump could still pull it off is the most tired ‘hot take’ of this election.
538 has added an interactive map that shows you how either candidates changes of winning change as you change states they win. So, for example, right now, if you change FL from a 70% Biden chance to Trump winning and change nothing else, Trump has a 40% chance of winning the election. That might be where the 40% is coming from.
Change Ohio and Arizona to Trump wins (from leans and toss-up), and his odds are 44%. Add Florida into that, and the odds are 57%.
All 3 of those aren’t outside of the realm of possibility for Trump to win. Throw in a Trump win in PA (either via the ballot box or some other way) and his odd are 97%!
So, while the odds might be 12-13% right now, very small changes in a small number of key states, and Trump wins a second term.
hence the importance of voter suppression in key states to Trump.
a fool and his money are soon parted…
“Stupid and with money to burn” is in most respects the definition of a Trump voter.
I wouldn’t put too much faith in the fact that idiots are willing to bet on Trump.
This is what is driving me nuts again this election and also why I fear he will be re-elected. There is a HUGE, non vocal set of supporters for him. Republicans who don’t talk much about being republicans. Who consider themselves good people. But who could never bring themselves to vote for a democratic candidate. They aren’t yelling in Facebook. They aren’t attending parades. And worst of all, they are embarrassed they are voting for Trump and so they are lying. Lying to friends. Lying to polls. Lying to reporters. They will maybe even denounce him amongst their friends. But come Election Day, they are checking the box next to Trump’s name. They did it last time and he wasn’t nearly as embarrassing. Imagine how many now are shamefully voting for him in secret.
You know, I think when you are so desperate that you have to say “Our candidate is so horrible that many people are lying about their intention to vote for him, and that’s why he’s going to win!”. you have really passed some kind of tipping point into outright fantasy, because you are not asking yourself why anyone would truly vote for someone who was so horrible?
You don’t give a reason for that, just that “they could never bring themselves to vote for a Democratic candidate”. Obviously, since Obama won twice and Hillary won the popular vote, there are not really enough of those people to win a Presidential election if the opposition turns out.
Any, glad to know Trump and his supporters have reached that tipping point. Thanks, Mattflix! And let me know if if can set you up with some oceanfront real estate in Nevada. Remember, it’s what Trump would tell you to buy!
Apologies if I didn’t offer more context. A lot of these people are people I know. Who denounce Trump publicly. Because…well. Why? Why be embarrassed of a Trump vote? I dunno. Maybe it’s the hypocrisy of upholding Christian values while voting for a man who openly brags about sexual assault and pays for sex with porn stars. Or maybe it’s having minority friends and watching as the president of the United state’s can’t bring himself to denounce white supremacy. Or maybe it’s having friends in the LGBTQIA community and realizing this administration is actively trying to shoehorn in a judge that will strip them of rights they just barely got.
See, the reasons to vote FOR Trump are actually many. But they are, every one of them, selfish. They are for padding your own pocket. Or making sure whitey puts people of color in their place. Or that women shouldn’t have the right to choose abortion, even in extreme cases like rape. I could go on. But for me, the choice is easy. I’m a white male. I’m in the upper middle class. A Republican or Democratic president honestly doesn’t affect my little bubble one bit. I don’t make enough to gain anything by tax breaks. I have no kids. I am single. I run two online businesses. Trump came close with some of the trade bullshit. But that doesn’t really matter to me.
I vote for others. I proudly voted for Barack Obama because I felt it was important for the country to have representation. I similarly was thrilled with Joe Lieberman, despite not liking some of his moral crusades, because we haven’t had someone who is Jewish in that office.
I vote for leaders who, at the very least, are trying to take away other’s rights. Forget for a second whether the candidate in voting for helps. That honestly doesn’t matter. Literally all you have to do is NOT shit on other people and you’ll get my vote over someone who DOES shit on other people.
And let’s also maybe hope that a Biden win brings back some decorum for us as far as how other countries view us. I have friends in Europe and Asia. And we are a laughing stock. Trump’s incessant lying and BS is so transparent to everyone.
So that’s my answer. Yes. People are voting for trump. Some are doubling down because they feel admitting they made a mistake will make them look stupid. And others, frankly, are voting selfishly and they are hiding it because they are embarrassed to be seen as supporters of the buffoon.
You hit the nail on the head. I’m certain I know personally people who voted Trump the first time and have since publicly shown disappointment in the President in recent months. Calling him a fool and an idiot, etc. Shaking their heads at his actions and behavior and bemoaning the fact that he ever got elected in the first place. However, they will vote for him again… Why? Just like you said, they are white and well off financially. They have done OK for themselves in the last 4 years so why not 4 more? Biden = uncertainty. With Trump, all they can do is point to the last 4 years.
I guess we should be thankful they still have enough vestigial shame left to feel the need to lie about voting for Trump, but that’s pretty hard to do. You would think people who were well off would not be so brutally selfish (and short-sighted – can’t they see Trump is a disaster in all ways, including economic?) but that is apparently not how human nature works.
The idea of the commons is completely absent in a large fraction of the population. Selfishness rules, often disguised as libertarianism or some other convenient cover. That doesn’t sustain a country for long.
I agree, Tanner. I watched stumbled onto a Civil Defense video from the 1950’s on YouTube a day or two ago. At one point, the narrator said something to the effect that “response to a disaster takes a lot of teamwork.” It made me think how seldom I, at least, hear any reference to teamwork or shared effort or burden these days. It used to be a common thing.
I think it is because billionaires (and billionaire-wannabes) do not like teamwork. They like the idea of “rugged individualism” instead. That way, if any individual or group of individuals needs help, they can blame it on their not being rugged enough and be selfish without guilt. They only want teamwork when they are the benefactor of the teamwork, like when they blow up their bank or hedge fund or insurance company with bad decisions. THEN we are all in this together. Not otherwise.