SCOOP: Manchin Tells Associates He’s Considering Leaving the Democratic Party and Has an Exit Plan

In theory, he would become an independent, not a Republican, but would presumably caucus with whichever side he cares to, giving him tremendous power, since he can swing the Senate either way at his sole discretion.

After this article was published, reporters questioned Manchin about it. He replied, “I can’t control rumors, and it’s bullshit, bullshit spelled with a B, U, L, L, capital B.”

The reporter stands by the story, saying his source in unimpeachable.

As far as I know, only one observer saw this coming. I need to add here that having this come out is a major monkey wrench in the plan. The real key to the plan, as I see it, is to keep a Manchin move secret, so that the Republicans can first trick the gullible Democrats into abolishing the filibuster, then have Manchin exit, leaving the Democrats with a minority and no filibuster to protect them. According to the scenario I presented, Manchin’s departure was supposed to be the hole card which enabled them to win that pot.

Now that the hole card is exposed, the Democrats will be wary of any sudden Republican co-operation to eliminate the filibuster. Even if the filibuster remains, the Senate could turn topsy-turvy if Manchin were to caucus with the GOP, since McConnell would then control all committees, and be able to block all of Biden’s appointments, including to the Supreme Court if a position comes open.

12 thoughts on “SCOOP: Manchin Tells Associates He’s Considering Leaving the Democratic Party and Has an Exit Plan

  1. Manchin isn’t switching. He runs the country right now as a Democrat. He’s literally emperor Manchin due to the filibuster bullshit, which they should end immediately come what may. One rube from West Goddamn Sister Loving Banjo Picking Virginia should not be dictator of the United States after the dems sweep both houses and the big chair. That’s nonsense. We’re the only parliamentary nation with this mickey mouse crap. End it.

    But we won’t. So he’s not switching, because his power ends the second he does. The dems stop catering to him and he becomes the enemy the moment he drops the D before his name. They proceed to drop as much money as possible to anyone in WV who will run against him. Manchin vanishes from public view ASAP as an afterthought, no longer a swing vote, just another RINO without a home.

  2. There is absolutely no benefit in abolishing the filibuster if you only control the Senate. Anything the Senate Republicans might want to pass that the Democrats objected to could be stopped by either Pelosi or Biden. Unless the GOP controlled the House and the presidency as well as the Senate the only thing they could pass without Democratic support would be sense of the Senate resolutions, which are not enforceable as laws.

    It would be colossally stupid to abolish the filibuster because it was expected that the GOP would hold the Senate and capture the House of Reps and White House in 2022 and 2024. When Jim Jeffords switched parties in 2021, it flipped the Senate back to the Dems. But the GOP recaptured it in 2002, despite having a GOP president. That was largely due to George W. Bush’s personal popularity in the wake of 9/11. The party out of power usually gains seats. However, in 2022, the GOP will be defending twice as many seats as the Dems. But the real wildcard will be the Supreme Court’s decision in the Dobbs case. It is widely expected/feared that the Court will overturn Roe and Casey. Their decision, whichever way they rule, is likely to be released next June. If the Supreme Court decides there is no Constitutional right to abortion it might motivate a lot of people to vote against the GOP. Given all that, McConnell may be glad the filibuster exists even if Manchin (temporarily) returns Senate control to McConnell.

    While I would prefer the GOP had the majority in the Senate and would love it if Bidens human infrastructure bill went down in flames (there are actually some Republicans that never stopped caring about the deficit), I think the USA is better off with Manchin as a Democrat. There just aren’t very many moderate Democrats in the Senate these days. We are all better off if there are moderate Dems and Republicans willing to vote for compromises.

  3. The thing people don’t mention enough about Manchin is not only does he come from a coal state, he also has about a $5M personal investment stake in coal.

    Makes you wonder whether he just has a price that needs to be met.

  4. As Manchin stated, it’s bullshit and unimpeachable ain’t what it used to be. ok, ok, unimpeachable source was always bullshit going back to Abraham, Noah and Moses.

    And why is everyone so cock sure Reps will take the senate in 2020? 1) Trump ain’t on the ballot like 2018 2) Trump keeps telling his insurrectionist lemmings not to vote 3) open seats in NC, PA, OH and possibly WI Dems could pick up.

    Reps restricting voting rights like there’s no tomorrow notwithstanding voting demographics continue to swing Dem ie minorities, younger voters as older diehard Rep voters continue to die. As always Dem GOTV like 2018 and 2020 is the key.

    Apologies to Abraham, Noah and Moses. 😛

    God said to Abraham, “Kill me a son”
    Abe say, “Man, you must be puttin’ me on”
    God say, “No, ” Abe say, “What?”
    God say, “You can do what you want Abe, but
    Next time you see me comin’, you better run”
    Abe said, “Where do you want this killin’ done?”
    God said, “Out on Highway 61”

    Bob Dylan’s father was Abraham Zimmerman ~ carry on …

      1. btw, Manchin already had the swing vote power before this “unimpeachable leak”, eh.

        Yea, the Rep message machine would never think of planting a bogus misinformation leak for their own benefit lol.

        What does it accomplish? Confusion, muddy the water like they’ve been doing for the past 40/50 yrs ie Reps are always better at messaging. If you can’t dazzle them with brilliance, baffle them with bullshit or as my dad would say ~ if you can’t sell ’em, confuse ’em.

        Fake news, it’s what’s for dinner ~ yum! never misunderestimate Republicans! 😛

  5. This would only make sense for Manchin if he plans to stand down the next election. He is unlikely to win a republican primary in West Virginia, and if he runs as an independent he can’t win unless the Republicans decide not to run against him. And while McConnell controls the senate Republicans, Trump controls the wider party and he won’t be compelled to honour any deals McConnell made. On the other hands, he will not lose a Democratic primary, and as long as he is a Democrat, he is the most powerful one among them.

    1. It depends on whether he thinks he can win a three-person race as an independent, thus making him invulnerable to a primary challenge of any kind. If McConnell can funnel him enough money from conservative super-pacs, he could do that, and there are plenty of well-heeled conservatives who will pony up big to gain control of the Senate. I think a massive super-pac is not out of the question, and that can be converted to a “leadership pac” (as the Deltas would say “cough, cough, bullshit, bullshit”) if he doesn’t spend it all.

      Even if he loses the race, he could still control that leadership pac, and would be able to exert influence as a power broker.

      Or he might just plan to stand down, as you say. He has three full years to decide that, and he’s no spring chicken. He’ll be 77 if and when he runs for another term, and he would leave office at 83 if elected. It might just be time for him to stop and smell the roses, because you can’t smell them when they are draping your coffin.

      There are a lot of options there while he holds all the cards.

      1. I think it would be super risky, because the actual Democrats in WV would never vote for him again, and the Trumpians will never vote anything but Republican. So he’ll have to hope there are enough people who will vote for *him* personally rather than party affiliation. Which there certainly are, given that many of his voters don’t vote Democrat in any other election. But I don’t know if it’s enough to defeat a Republican candidate without the Democrat vote.

        1. As I said, I think his future is as a power broker who works at his own schedule rather than being tied to Senate regime after his current term.

          Unless he sees himself going full Grassley, still trudging in to work at 83.

          The key here is that he holds all possible power. Without him the Democrats can’t pass a thing, and if he bolts, they can’t even confirm nominations. Right now the country is what he says it is.

          Harsh reality.

          (He’s probably just using the rumored threat of bolting as a cudgel to get what he wants. I assume that his own closest staffers planted that story (with his blessing), which is why the reporter is 100% certain he can stand by it. If he’s really cagey, he planted it himself, but told the reporter, “Yes, I’m considering it, but understand that I’ll deny it when you print it.” Either way, the plan will probably work because the Dems have absolutely no other options. I would be surprised if he actually bolted. But stranger things have happened.)

          Also, will West Virginia Democrats really abandon him if he bolts? Maybe the political insiders would, but the people of West Virginia? Remember these are West Virginia Democrats, or as they would be known in California, “White Nationalist Far-Right Gun-Nut Extremists.”

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