Trump says the single most important thing for Republicans to do is NOT vote

On the one hand, he’s told his lackeys and sycophants that he’ll run again in 2024. On the other hand, he’s telling Republicans not to vote in 2024 (or for that matter in 2022). He said that this is the single most important thing Republicans can do.

He told Republicans not to vote unless the election fraud problem is “solved.” Since there is no significant fraud to solve, and Joe Biden will certainly remain in the White House until the next election (unless he dies), that means the Republicans should not vote at all.

But that’s not what he means. Remember that he basically has no grasp of the English language, so he does not express himself precisely. What he is really saying is that his base should not vote for any Republican UNLESS they embrace the election fraud theory. In other words, his base should kick out anyone not personally loyal to Trump himself, and to Trump’s mad assertion that he must somehow have been cheated out of the election.

In reality, it is Trump’s vote count that seems suspiciously high in the 2020 election. Consider:

  • The final polls, averaged and weighted, predicted a Biden victory by 8.4 points, but the final tally showed only a 4.4 Biden victory. Those 4 points represent some 6.3 million votes.
  • In 2016 Trump got 63 million votes.

Negative adjustments: During his presidency he became the only President in the long history of Gallup’s approval polls never to hit 50%, and his average approval rating over the course of his presidency was the lowest ever, and by a wide margin. Because of that, exit polls show that he lost 4.4 million (7%) of the people who voted for him in 2016. It is estimated that 3.8 million of his 2016 voters died before they could vote in 2020.

Positive adjustments: He did pick up 2.6 million (4%) former Clinton voters, 6.7 million (39%) of the people who did not vote in 2016, and 1.9 million (25%) who voted for third parties in 2016, so his vote total should have gone up about three million net after subtracting the 2016 voters that abandoned him or died. So how did the least popular presidency in history, led by a man who apparently gained only three million net voters from 2016, manage to earn an additional 11.2 million votes in 2020? Where did the additional eight million votes come from?

Doing the same calculation for Biden shows absolutely nothing suspicious.

Hillary got 65.9 million votes in 2016. Here are the adjustments from that number in 2020:

  • Biden picked up 4.4 million (7%) former Trump voters.
  • Biden lost 2.6 million (4%) former Clinton voters to Trump.
  • Biden picked up 10.0 million (59%) voters who did not vote in 2016.
  • Biden picked up 4.6 million (60%) voters who voted for a third party in 2016.
  • Biden lost about two million 2016 Clinton voters to the grim reaper. Not as many Democrats die each year as Republicans because of the age differential.

So Biden’s total should have been a bit more than 80 million, and it was a bit more than 81. Given that everything here is an estimate, he got exactly what he should have.

I’m not presenting a point that contains mathematical certainty. I know there are answers to those extra Trump votes that don’t involve fraud. Many of those answers center around people lying to pre-election pollsters, or the fact that one cannot easily conduct an exit poll of mail-in voters, but the point of the observation is that it is possible to argue that Trump’s 2020 vote count seems suspiciously high while Biden’s seems to be what it should have been.

For the moment, let’s assume there was no significant fraud in favor of either candidate, and let’s come back to the real world. Where Trump lost the election was in the voters who did not vote for a major candidate in 2016, but did in 2020. The exit polls show that this amounted to about 25 million voters (about 17 million who did not vote at all in 2016 and about 8 million who voted for third parties), and that Biden won those groups by a mile – 19 points among those who did not vote in 2016, and 35 points among those voted for third parties in 2016.

10 thoughts on “Trump says the single most important thing for Republicans to do is NOT vote

  1. Sadly, I do think this is strategic on his part. As fwald said, I’d always comes down to two things: money and/or ego. He is going to continue to discredit the process until he has assured himself as the real winner of 2020, unfairly beaten by a fraudulent election.

    In the meantime, he has to be doing the math. The republicans don’t want him. They won’t officially abandon him, but can Trump win in 2024? Will anyone be so disillusioned with Biden’s milquetoast presidency to roll the dice with Trump again? When I say anyone, I mean the voters who failed to vote him in last election, not his diehards.

    My true fear is that it will be Desantis who runs because he actually has a chance. And unlike Trump, he’s actually pretty savvy. He can play the Trump book for votes and do more of what he wants.

    The worst thing the republicans did was not impeach trump. It would have removed him from their hair. But now he either runs and has to somehow convince the level headed right that he’s not a coup instigator. Or, he runs on his own ticket and splits the vote.

    It will be interesting to see if he actually runs. His ego is fragile. He can’t handle another defeat. I think what he’s doing now is setting the stage to NOT run because the system is “rigged” against him. That way he can come out on top in his head.

  2. Look, the man is a genius, right? He’s playing 5G chess here. It’s hopeless for us simple folk to try and follow his 52,000 step master plan for ultimate victory, so don’t even try. The main thing is for Republicans not to vote. Never, never, never, until the 2020 fraud is resolved and OJ finds the real killer. (He didn’t say that last bit out loud, but I feel it’s implied.)

  3. Please don’t take any of this as glib or humor or farce. It is dead serious and so are they. They should be treated with the gravity and seriousness their actions represent.
    Which is a true and imminent danger to the republic.
    I am appalled that these people have STILL not been charged with crimes.
    This will come back to haunt us all.

  4. Sigh…Why does the media always misreport Trump quotes? He did not tell Republicans not to vote. He said republicans won’t vote until the 2020 election “fraud” is solved (which is ridiculous of course). He says enough dumb shit without misquoting him or attributing a meaning to his quote that was not there.

    1. Well since there was no fraud it can’t be solved ie no solution hence, therefore, ergo don’t ever vote until the end of time. Simple logic! 😛

      The big question? Who are these lumpkin lemmings still listening to their lord and savior Trump? Rhetorical.

      Hard core racist, misogynist, xenophobic fools notwithstanding.

      Apologies to actual fools …

    2. It’s not misrepresented.

      His exact words: “If we don’t solve the Presidential Election Fraud of 2020 (which we have thoroughly and conclusively documented), Republicans will not be voting in ‘22 or ‘24. It is the single most important thing for Republicans to do.”

      There is nothing to solve, nothing that can be solved, nothing that will be solved, so he’s telling people not to vote.

      This is extremely counterproductive to the master GOP strategy, which virtually assures they will win the mid-terms and 2024, because:

      1. They are suppressing the minority and youth vote with new legislation in the states.
      2. They are trying to capture the positions that certify elections state-by-state.
      3. In case #2 fails, they are trying to pass additional laws that will allow legislatures to override the certifications.
      4. The know the Democrats can’t pass federal laws to prevent any of that because of the filibuster in the Senate.

      In fact, they have a very solid plan and will get him back in the White House with both houses behind him if he just shuts up about his imaginary stuff.

  5. The con is that all elections are rigged, and it will be used as a precursor to an actual insurrection.

    All based on the “fact” that any election is a lie and rigged and therefore the government can be overthrown with due cause.

  6. His con is always about the money, or his ego.

    He’s probably looking for payoffs to make him say something different.

  7. Republicans: please, please, *please* follow your Great Orange Messiah’s advice. Trust me, it’ll totally own the libs. Promise.

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