In his usual eloquent way, Walker said, “We can’t blame no one.”
I didn’t make that up.
One thing we saw in the 2022 mid-terms was that the death of polls had been, if not greatly, at least somewhat exaggerated. In general, the pollsters did a pretty good job this year. In this particular race, RCP summarized the polls with 51.0 for Warnock – with a 3.7% edge and 1.7% undecided. 538 said 50.2 for Warnock, with an edge of 2.0% and 1.8% undecided. Splitting the undecideds in the same proportion, that would result in a 51.0-49.0 win for Warnock using 538’s numbers, or a 51.9-48.1 Warnock victory using RCP’s numbers.
If you average those two summaries, you get Warnock with 51.45 and Walker with 48.55.
The actual result was Warnock 51.4, Walker 48.6. That’s about as accurate as polling can ever get. (In fact it’s MORE accurate than polling can really get. Getting that close is just a matter of luck.)