Biden is correct about the numbers. More than 1/3 of the American electorate consists of white people with no college degree.
There is a very good reason why Donald Trump famously said:
They voted 67-32 in favor of Trump in 2020.
That means that a Democrat must either (a) cut into that group or (b) win 60% of the remaining votes. Neither is easy to accomplish. Biden won with (b) in 2020, but has chosen to focus on (a).
No problem. All he needs is a time machine back to 1960, when the unions could bring in lots of blue-collar white voters for the Democrats. At the moment Biden has devised no strategy to counter the culture-war stuff with blue-collar voters. He thinks money is the answer, but those voters are not responding.
The weirdest thing about the current state of American elections is that candidates who would appeal to both sides (except their fringes) can’t win the primaries. Chris Sununu would probably defeat Biden in a landslide, but he ain’t makin’ it through the wackjobbery in those GOP primaries.
Oh, cripe, I just dread a Biden-Trump rematch.
Shout-out to Michael Moore, James Carville and Pelosi who actually did predict Dems would hold the house/senate and were very close to being accurate.
Like most folk thought the Dems were toast in 2022. Shit happens! š
carry on …
Pelosi pretty much obligated to say Dems would hold the house notwithstanding. š
To quite Delmar in Oh Brother Where Art Thou “well, I’m with you fellas”
I appreciate the concerns about Biden’s age, but he is constantly underestimated. He defeated Trump fairly comfortably and for all the stuff about ‘Biden should have won in a landslide’, Trump won in 2016 and, as we’ve seen, has a large base of idiot supporters. Also, it’s gotten harder and harder to defeat an incumbent President, even though Trump probably did not use his power of incumbency to full effect: (Not including Ford who wasn’t elected)
2020: Biden 51.3 Trump 46.8 (4.5%)
1992: Clinton 43.0 Bush 37.5 (5.5%)
1980: Reagan 50.8 Carter 41.0 (9.8%)
1932:Roosevelt 57.4 Hoover 39. 6 (17.8%)
1912: Wilson 41.8 Taft 23.2 (18.6%)
In addition, Biden passed much more legislation than anybody expected, one of the most productive Congresses in the last 60 years or so, and only narrowly lost the House and held the U.S Senate in the midterms.
Sununu is an unknown reasonably popular governor of a small swing state, the best that I can think about him is that he’s a fairly generic Republican of a slightly older school, say before the Tea Baggers, which is still after the Presidency of the lying war criminal George W Bush.
If Biden’s age didn’t become a factor in the campaign (or if he could neutralize it like Reagan did in 1984) I think Biden would chew up Sununu and spit him out. Of course, given the fixed patterns of most voters these days, I think the only states Biden might gain are North Carolina and possibly Alaska, though Sununu would likely win his home state of New Hampshire. I doubt Sununu would have any regional popularity though other than probably also gaining the one electoral vote in Maine.
Sununu having no chance for the nomination aside again whoever gets nominated besides Trump would not get the support of diehard trumpkins regardless ie many would stay home.
Repeating there’s about 37/38% diehard Trump lemmings who bear allegiance only to Trump. On the plus side looking at the #s that’s about 28 million of Trump’s 2020 voters IOW @ 5.6 % of eligible voters.
On the down side many were somewhat happy w/2020 turnout ie 67% (158 million), but that is still piss poor as 33% (52 million) voters stayed home. Democracy in America.
But, but, but Trump did bring out more voters. š
Indeed, sometime in the near future Trump will no longer be in the equation, seriously, And then what will the Rep party do? IOW they want to keep Trump bigoted/racist/insurrectionist yahoos in fold, but how will the Repug party continue to appeal to them, eh? Quite the conundrum.
The fucker’s already late for the grave.
I wouldn’t worry about the Rs, though. Right now, I picture easily a dozen doofuses jerking it in outhouses across the country to pictures of Melania (or the Song of Solomon, or the owner’s manual for their assorted weapons,) any one of which could rise to party leadership. Shit floats, remember.
This is a very prescient lecture from Canadian sociologist and pollster Michael Adams at the Vancouver Institute (UBC) on January 14, 2006 called Fire, ice and American backlash: social change above the Rio Grande. You can google Vancouver Institute Lectures to find the link and I’m quoting from the audio.
His firm had done three large surveys in the U.S prior to September 11/2001 and had a meeting to prepare to publish their findings on September 11/2001, where they decided it was now inappropriate for a somewhat snarky Canadian polling firm to release their survey results.
So, they published a book on Canada instead, and conducted a fourth large survey in 2004 in the U.S.
Keep in mind of course that many Canadians were unhappy/disgusted/frightened that Americans had reelected war criminal George W. Bush in 2004, though and the lecture was given in Canada. But, this is all from polling of large samples of Americans.
From the lecture: “So, what do you think is the fastest growing social trend in the United States since 1992? Is it religiosity? Megachurches. Ostentatious religiosity. Is it patriotism? Good hypothesis. Is it fear of terrorism?
Well, obviously I’ve set you up. It’s none of these: it’s an orientation to violence as normal in everyday life. So, here’s a statement we say to our random sample of people age 15 and over “A little violent behavior relieves tension, it’s no big deal.” So, in the year 1992 15% of Americans said that’s true, then 27% in our next survey, then 31% in 2000, and 32% in 2004. So, more than doubled from 1992 to 2004.
Among young men aged 15 to 24, over 50% think violence is normal in everyday life.
“It is acceptable to use physical force to get what you want, the important thing is to get what you want.” 9%, 17%, 24%, 23%. Among young men aged 15-24, 40% think violence to get what you want is okay.
This is not what I went to this lecture to post about, but it obviously struck me.
Again, not what I listened to this lecture to post about, but regarding the horribly selfish American response to Covid:
“From 1992 to 2004, a culture moving from fullfilment to (social) Darwinism, a culture moving away from authority to individuality.”
This is what I was looking for, in terms of who the hard core base of the Trump voters are, at least during the 2016 primaries:
“The people in exclusion and intensity (quadrant) are not voters. They are the disengaged, for them civic engagement would be a ridiculous thing for them to do because they’re not orientated to any institution in society, the family, the school and the local community…The people who are disengaged have no orientation to religion at all. They don’t believe in moral values or any other kinds of values…Family to the disengaged is a joke. Family isn’t there for those people.”
There are a lot of interesting comments in the lecture including on how to sell environmentalism in the U.S, which environmentalists actually picked up: ‘don’t preach environmentalism in terms of limits, but in terms of how individuals will benefit, the hydrogen powered Hummer, that industries of the future will be more environmentally friendly and that America needs to win that competition, and that environmentally produced American energy means not needing untrustyworthy foreign nations or needing to invade and put our children at risk.’
And, in terms of a ‘black swan’ event (term not used by Michael Adams) that would make Americans more like Europeans in terms of embracing less work as part of the work life balance (he theorizes why Americans after the 1970s embraced more (paid) work while Western Europe and Canada shifted to less) which the response to Covid may have done.
And finally, explains why Americans are so much more anti government (except when it came to the military) than Western Europe or Canada: ‘Americans want to not embrace the community but seek to move away to the exurbs when they can. So, they don’t look to provide for the community or see value in the public good.’
I come here to read the stupidity courtesy of Steverinoā¦
You just donāt understand your adversaries. I get that you think you do. Funny thing is I like playing devils advocate because you are all so lost in your bubble echo chambers. You need a shakeup of the paradigm to fundamentally understand you donāt get your neighbors. They get you. I assure you of that. Once again why you lost the blue collar vote. They see through your bs. Of course you can continue to paint conservatives with a broad brush because on your reality, democrats are pretty much like minded trying to fight for a side in the role of the government. Conservatives are nothing alike. They are all completely different unified by one single principle, we donāt like the government. Our reasons differ but thatās the only common theme. You want us to be good neighbors. We donāt want to be your neighbors. Thatās what you are missing. Stay in your big cities, drink your lattes, repeat your talking points, cry about the environment which you canāt do anything about without china. Worry about what gender you are on the spectrum. Most importantly, be a while person fighting for reparations of the treatment of the great great great great grandparents of some people by the great great great great grandparents of some other people. Do all this while the married father of 4 works 12 hour shifts to give his kids opportunity he never had to not be āpoorly educatedā. You are a joke. Your entire platform is a joke. Without self perceived victims to follow your nonsense, you donāt even have a party. Keep preaching. Iām out.
Conservatives love government. Fucking love it. Without it how are they gonna shove money into the pockets of oil companies. Or tell women what to do with their bodies. Or start wars, Or keep the prison-industrial complex afloat. Odds are if the government is doing something bad, its because of policies created by conservative politician.
You only hate big government when you’re not in charge.
I didn’t read Steverino’s rant here, because why would I? He’s admitted exactly what he is.
But I did glimpse the phrase “Your entire platform is a joke”. YOUR entire platform was “Whatever Trump wants!”. Jesus. It actually was. They put it in writing and everything.
That sums up the current GOP just fine. Thanks for that!
To be fair, the article was about Joe Biden’s hope to bring blue-collar white America back into the Dem fold.
Steverino replied that such a thing was possible if Biden would renounce the liberal madness over things like pronouns and allowing biological males to play women’s sports, and if liberals would stop calling them stupid racists.
You liberals then called him a stupid racist, thereby demonstrating just how futile is Biden’s aspiration.
He may or may not be a stupid racist, but he’s right. There is a way to start to welcome those blue-collar Americans into the fold, but Biden is not willing to do it.
He could start by ridiculing the craziest ideas in his own party – and he won’t risk a single vote. The transsexual community and those who really want looser border control may get upset with him, but that’s a small number of people and they’ll still vote for him because …
well, that’s obvious. They ain’t gonna join the Trump camp.
I’m not sure that’s correct:
1.There are many younger Americans for whom LGBTQ+ rights are very important and they may simply not vote. Democrats have been far more willing to criticize their party and to not vote when not happy. When it comes to elections, Republicans may grouse and complain, but they always show up to vote.
2.Would that win back these voters? It’s not what Biden does, it’s far more important to these voters what Fox ‘News’ and the like tell them Biden does. Biden could execute every trangendered person in America and Fox ‘News’ would still tell them that he’s made every one of them a millionaire instead. We already see exactly this with the border, where Fox lies to their idiot viewers that the 2.8 million stopped at the border are now all in the U.S, rather than (mostly) sent back, which is what has really happened.
They would not vote and risk a Trump re-election? I would roll those dice, even if Biden lacks the cojones.
And I’m not talking about rolling back rights, just for Biden to show that he’s for common sense. It is completely obvious to everyone that biological males don’t belong in women’s athletics, that this is not a “right,” and the women in sports are absolutely livid over this issue, not just Fox News viewers. I don’t want it to change because I now play pickleball mixed doubles with a transgender partner and we are unbeatable. We have many games where the opposition never scores a point. I am tall for my generation at 6’2″, very strong for my age, with very quick hands, but so-so foot speed and no more vertical leap. She is a lot taller, can jump, and is way faster, more athletic and just as strong. You can imagine how she stacks up against other women in my age group. You can also imagine how thrilled my girlfriend is, since she was also my former pickleball partner!
All Biden has to say is that the determination of who plays in women’s athletics is up to those who run women’s athletics, not the federal government. It would at least demonstrate to Middle America that he has the common sense God gave a goose, even though he would fuck me royally.
My response is also nothing more than the immediate practical issues of trying to get (white) blue-collar Americans back. As the Michael Adams lecture and, for instance, Barack Obama’s quote in 2008 about how ‘the cling to their guns and religion…’ showed there is an enormous cultural affinity between these voters and the Republican Party. Of those who Michael Adams referred to as the ‘disaffected’ who Trump brought out many of them are loony conspiracy theorist types who are (QAnon) who are unlikely to be persuaded by any rational actions. Don’t forget that QAnon types already aren’t individualist nihillists either generally, but seem to want a connection to a community “where we go one, we go all.” So, they should be naturally alienated from the Republican Party as well, but they clearly culturally identify with it.
This isn’t some new thing either really. In 1968, George Wallace had enormous support with (white) blue-collar union workers and it took a full court press by the unions pointing out Wallace’s anti union legislation in Alabama and Wallace’s Vice Presidential nominee ‘Bombs Away’ LeMay threatening nuclear war to bring these voters back to the Democratic Party.
Beyond that, it’s hard to know how these voters would respond to those sort of attempts to woo them. It’s entirely possible their attitude would be largely one of “they sold out one of the core constituencies to try to get us to vote for them. Not only are they pathetic, they don’t even have any loyalty.”
Well, my response is this: mainstream Democrats really can’t ask mainstream Republicans to disavow right-wing crazies if they are unwilling to disavow left-wing crazies.
But we seem to agree on the main point. Despite what Steverino says, it is extremely unlikely, probably impossible, for the Democrats to win back white, blue-collar America. The cultural divide is just too great.
Thank you. They were too busy attacking me to understand the point.
I think one of the biggest disconnects here is you really really really really want me to be 1) a trump supporter and 2) a Republican. I am neither. I am however a fiscal conservative and actually socially liberal (as in people can be free to choose) as opposed to militant ātoleranceā. I agree the republicans like big government too. I agree republicans are a problem, like democrats. And most importantly I agree that Trump fucking sucks. But I also feel that way about Obama who is the father of wokeness. Unfortunately the part about Obama is the only thing youāll remember and youāll continue to call me a āTrumperā.
I do however have tremendous respect for Americas working class and blue collar workers. As Iāve stated a million times, my family is blue collar. They are and have been union for generations including law enforcement, construction, plus mom and pop shop owners. Iām the first in my family to go to college. I achieved the American dream because my family taught me values, hard work, and perseverance. And they imprinted upon me the importance of education. You are all too angry to listen.You are too busy talking about pronouns, transgenders, and political correctness to hear the struggle of the real Americans who wake up every day and bust their asses so their kids can have a better lives. They donāt care what the name of their fucking high school is
Dang, I need to quit for the night; I forgot an important word in my PS to Steverino: “And as a collary, that makes them believe that anyone who does NOT share their craziness is a loon. Hence Steverinoās opinion.” Apologies.
The dem’s might have had better luck if Biden didn’t call himself the most pro-union president ever and then immediately side with the rail owners instead of giving the workers anything. Disgusting.
I’m convinced Republican blue collar workers no longer give a crap about their own welfare at this point. Or they’ve been brainwashed to not care or understand policies anymore. They’ll consistently vote for corporate tax breaks and free reign of corporations to do stock buybacks, buy out competition, abuse the legal system, and cut jobs even though the crux of these economic policies are what has pushed all the wealth to the top.
Companies don’t do anything except erode the middle class and make both the middle and lower classes more destitute with these policies, and manipulate the system just like a casino manipulates the rules of the games they create to hoard resources.
Simple fact is, they don’t care. As long as they can make an immigrant, a black person, a Muslim, a liberal, etc more miserable than they are – they don’t really care to be honest. I really don’t want Biden to run again, but the fact is, there’s never going to be a sea change of Democrats getting blue collar workers like that again.
I think George Carlin got it right at this point: become a spectator to the circus. Watch as humanity destroys itself. I guess the best thing I can say about it is I won’t be around in a hundred years to see the Earth scorched into a Blade Runner esque dystopia.
The uneducated are always more susceptible to conspiracy theories, lies, prejudices, racism iow Trump’s troops on Jan. 6 2021. Trump made it acceptable to be an outright bigot! And come out of the closet.
Jews will not replace us …
Yea, there’s stupid and then there is/are diehard Trump supporters.
‘nuf said!
Why should blue collar workers vote for democrats? They prioritize the black, gay and even trans vote over theirs. The culture war is more important to liberals than security for middle class America. Trump winning the first time didnāt teach you this? My parents and grandparents are all union people and all lifelong democrats who voted GOP since Romney. No one wants this social Justice bs. If the left dropped their āwokeā bullshit and transgender crusade, theyād have an appealing platform. Bottom line if a moderate Republican won the primaries, it wouldnāt be a close election. I am also a Jewish American so I check that box for you a well. I know you liberals love checking boxes since you see the entire world through a prism of color. Because someone is black or white, you actually believe you can relate to their personal struggles. Ridiculous.
The economic policies haven’t changed in the fact that Republican’s believe in trickle down economics which means funneling money to private industries where they DON’T create jobs with it.
You’re pointing out things that are irrelevant. Whether someone gives lip service to minorities or doesn’t, it doesn’t change the fact the economic policies are what has contributed to the toil on the middle and lower classes in the US. Thank Reagan for legalizing stock buybacks and thank the same economic policies for privatizing everything, so that CEO’s control individual citizens retirement funds and offer them a pittance of a percentage while they reap billions.
It doesn’t FN MATTER what someone says up on a podium, it matters whats in the policy. You’re the one being swayed by the words, no one else. When Republican’s paid Foxconn to come into Wisconsin and blew millions of taxpayer money on some privatization ‘job creation’ policy and it flamed out, that shows exactly the type of economic policies the Republicans have. Pay a company a million in tax breaks and credits to ‘create’ a $50,000 job that will then be cut at the end of the slush fund – instead of just making it yourself.
When black, trans minorities own the vast majority of wealth in the world, come back and complain. Otherwise you’re just another easily triggered genius that for whatever reason is insecure about messaging of another race or gender. It’s funny how only the people with a problem seem to even notice this sort of thing, but that says more about you as a person than the policies you’re supposedly for or against.
You are the ones trying to figure out why your old reliable blue collar vote no longer supports your party. I couldnāt care less. Itās your problem. Youāre the one who wants people to give their pronouns before they introduce themselves. Clearly your ābrilliantāmessage to middle America is not getting through. But feel free to keep explaining to me that you know what the issue is while you continue to lose their vote.
I’m not a Democrat genius. I’m just not going to stand here and be easily swayed by anecdotes and ceremony like you are.
Boo hoo, someone made a feature story about a trans person on TV or it’s Black history month. Yeah, it’s a big fn ceremony, who cares either way? Obviously you do, but that doesn’t effect policy.
And I don’t care at this point, I don’t expect to sway anyone. At least I can defend my point on economic policy based on a systemic effect rather than ‘gee Democrats aren’t for the lower or middle class anymore because they had a gay guy on TV last week.’
That’s your logic, you live with it. Obviously intelligence isn’t a prerequisite to voting, and you’re proof of it. It’s no wonder the world continues to be a shithole with a philosophy like that.
Youāre missing the point. That is their message. Blacks, gays, trans, CRT. Thatās all they see and all they fucking talk about. I fail to see the difference between the evangelical rights bible based moral high ground and the radical lefts academia based moral high ground. Both of them need to stfu and stop telling us what we need to think and how we need to act. If both sides simply talked about economic and foreign policy, there be very little difference. And you may not be a democrat, but you are clearly a liberal.
It’s amazing that the crazies always manage to work in the Jews somehow. I was watching those tiki-torch Nazis march and I thought, “What the hell do Jews have to do with this?” I had to catch myself up on the Great Replacement Theory which, as you noted, is even battier and shittier than the usual batshit anti-semitic diatribes.
The failure of working class white America to vote in its own economic interests remains a mystery to me. I never would have guessed that people would consider race and culture wars more important than their own pocketbooks. I called that completely wrong,
They are voting against the democrats culture crusade. And they are voting for their own pocketbook. From their perspective, the left is focused on filling the pocketbooks of black people. Liberals call those people racist. They want someone to care.
Biden administration added 11 million jobs in two yrs. Trump admin increased the national deficit by 25% since the founding of the republic. š®
Yielding back the balance of my time …
Reagan blew the deficit to shreds with trickle down econ in his 8 years, and the tech boom of the 80s carried his ‘success’ with companies able to thrive without the terrible patent and copyright laws that gigantic tech corps rule the world with today.
He basically bought himself popularity to put it all on a credit line, for others to pay for down the line. This has been the Republican strategy for quite a while. Pass a penny to the poor or middle class, while the rich or the corporations get millions. Then when it comes out in the wash a few years later when it has to be paid back, you know who gets blame. Repeat over and over again.
Part of me hopes Republicans eventually get what they want: their private dystopia. We all live in corporate managed megacities like Foxconn in China and work 70 hour weeks for 5 bucks an hour for Elon Musk. A Reaganomics dream.
Wow. You really got me there. š¤£. I sometimes wish people like you could meet me in person. Youād cry in a corner.
Indy, you mean the international mega conglomerates controlling the world while everyone works for the subsidiary of a subsidiary of a subsidiary? Sounds precisely like liberal globalism to me.
Liberal globalism? That’s the free market genius. The philosophy of the conservatives. Who were the Republicans out there in Wisconsin grinning when a Chinese company promised a handful of jobs they burned taxpayer money making roads for a corporate slush fund going to the Chinese? Foxconn in Wisconsin, do yourself a favor for a change and research what you’re spewing. Spending millions in credits and infrastructure to a Chinese company to make a pittance of jobs they scrambled to try to meet the deadline for. That’s trickle-down econ at its best.
Just because your boy was on TV talking tough about policy, doesn’t mean he was going it for four years. Who lowered those tax rates for the corporations like Apple who make their billions of slave labor over in China? It’s funny, for all the hate of China or illegal immigrants, you can’t even count a single tax penalty of corporations or private industry that had to pay ANYTHING for utilizing either one.
Yes liberal globalism. Break up monopolies. Break up the banks and big tech. We have antitrust laws on the book. Unlike liberals, I donāt believe in selective enforcement, bailouts, and sanctuary policy. Make it super expensive to do business outside of the US. You and I agree on this. Apple shouldnāt be making billions of dollars off the backs of slave labor at the expense of the middle class.
The single biggest transfer of money and power in American history were the bank bailouts following the 08 meltdown. They put liquidity into the hands of the thieves who caused the crisis so they could buy up all the toxic assets that they created at 10 cents on the dollar. That was Obama.
Thanks for admitting the racism, Steverino! Oh, and the fact that many of the people who vote Republican care only about their money, as I said above. A lot of the rest care only about their guns. And others cared only about banning abortions, IMO.
Personally, I don’t think they’ve got much future in a democracy, despite the non-stop lying by “conservative” media. That’s because Trump and the clown car of crazies that got into Congress on his coattails has made it all too obvious who they really are.
That’s why the “red wave” was a fizzle. But that in turn explains their love of Putin – they want something just like his regime for the USA. The ballot box can’t get them any farther, once even people like Steverino start saying the quiet part loud.
Call me heartless all day long. Charity is for charity, not for government. What I care about is freedom. MY money. MY guns. MY kids. MY property. Stay off my lawn and stop asking me to care about your social Justice bs. As for abortions, I share Bill Burrs view. Iām 1000% pro choice but I 1000% consider it murder. I donāt care if you want to kill your kids.
On a side note, Iāll never understand this liberal obsession with the gop and Putin. Putin invaded Ukraine under Obama and Biden. Strong men know weak men when they see them.
Oh, and PS, Steverino – we are NOT all in agreement that “that only loons can get elected these days”. What is true is that only Republican loons can win Republican primaries these days (excepting powerful long-timers like Mitch McConnell).
That is the result of 30-40 years of right-wing lies, which intensified by an order of magnitude during the Trump years, and by another factor of 10 since the 2020 Presidential election. The GOP base is fanatically committed to a whole cornucopia of craziness (see Trump, MTG, and Lauren Boebert). Anyone who wants to deal with reality cannot get their votes.
And as a collary, that makes them believe that anyone who does share their craziness is a loon. Hence Steverino’s opinion.
So because MSNBC blasts 5 republicans 24 hours a day, thatās how all conservatives think? Iāve already said 1000 times Iām not a trump supporter. I certainly donāt support MTJ or any of the other loons. How is that different than FOX painting all of the Dems as AOC and Ilhan Omar? I would argue far more democrats support AOC than republicans who support MTG. Iād like to see that data actually. (Iām sure now youāll tell me how great AOC is. Lol)
Btw, you misread my comment. By āTheyā want someone to care, I meant the blue collar workers. They want someone to care about them and not talk about the black plight all day. Every person has their own struggles, their own stories, their own hardships. Growing up black is the only challenge people in this country face? How about cancer? How about sexual abuse? How about mental illness? Death? If only all the problems of the world boiled down to skin color. I love how even Muslims these days are crying about being an oppressed minority. There are 2 billion of them. There are 15m Jews.
Cancer? The GOP gives zero fucks about healthcare.
Sexual Abuse? The GOP had a fucking pedophile as Speaker of the House and put two creeps on the Supreme Court.
Mental Illness? The GOP threw them out onto the street.
Death? How many people die due to GOP policies?
The Dems care far more about Blue collar workers than the GOP ever will. Just expect them not to be dicks to blacks, gays and other minorities. The Dixiecrats are dead.
PS Muslims are a minority within the US.
56% of voters under $100k income voted for Biden.
54% of voters over $100k voted for Trump.
Yes, a substantial amount of poor people still voted for Trump. Yes some of those people don’t mind hardship if they’re voting for what they believe in. This isn’t anything new.
The issue at hand is whether the Democrats can ever get back their old base of white, blue-collar workers. Income is the wrong barometer, especially at that level of income.
Two reasons:
(1) Voters making under a hundred grand include about a zillion underpaid teachers, who are not blue-collar workers.
(2) Voters making under a hundred thousand include a disproportionate number of black people, who were generally pro-Biden
The chart you need to look at is “education by race.”
As you can see, the entire country is really now split into two groups
(1) 35% are the group Trump loves – poorly educated white people – in the Trump camp
(2) All others – in the anti-Trump camp
That sums it up for me: dumb white people vs all others
LBJ, whatever his faults, is still one of the great political geniuses in American history, and he nailed it:
“If you can convince the lowest white man he’s better than the best colored man, he won’t notice you’re picking his pocket. Hell, give him somebody to look down on, and he’ll empty his pockets for you.”
This is accurate, the GOP are split into two camps, primarily: MAGA cultists who absolutely don’t know and don’t care about issues, and litmus test voters (aka the religious right) who care about abortion and live in terror fomented by their specialized, bespoke press outlets and their own clergy. (War on Christians/The Church and other total fantasies) This has both sides 100% lodged in full tilt partisan positions where issues aren’t even considered. Taxes? Jobs? Who cares! We can’t have a Democrat! They’re either against Trump (Maga) or they want to kill all the babies and end Christianity! (litmus test/WoC)
And that’s the vast majority. That’s it. No need to even consider the rest, it’s such a small chunk they can’t even swing local races.
It’s so bad even in places like Texas where everyone is pissed at Abbott, he still gets reelected to do the same bullshit for four more years. As if he’ll somehow shape up. “Well, I just can’t vote for Beto. He’s anti gun and I can’t take him seriously.” IT’S TEXAS, NOBODY IS TAKING A GUN FROM ANYONE. Maybe he’ll make sure the lights stay on and get our people off the border so they can get back to their families! What a concept! Nope, the concept of a Democrat is so distasteful they won’t even fire someone they actively hate.
There is still room for Moderate candidates in the general election but in todays toxic political environment, like you said, they get shived in the primaries.
Well, not in Democratic primaries. They do just fine there. Funny how it’s in the GOP primaries that sane people cannot win, huh? It’s almost as if Republican voters have been trained to believe crazy lies for DECADES.
Go back 10 years, 20 years, 30 years. Whose platform has changed? Liberals. Liberals are convinced that āprogressiveā means progress when it actually means change. Progress is in the eye of the beholder.
Re you a freaking idiot? Ronald Reagan – the patron saint of conservatives – couldn’t get elected today with the same policies that he had while President.
Remember him granting amnesty to over 3 million illegal immigrants?
He wanted to abolish all nuclear weapons.
“My dream, then, became a world free of nuclear weapons. … For the eight years I was president I never let my dream of a nuclear-free world fade from my mind” – page 550 of An American Life
We can also thank Reagan for laying the groundwork of NAFTA.
Hell in 1986, he signed the bill that banned the sale of assault weapons and was a supporter of the Brady Bill and the Federal assault weapons ban of 1994.
Try getting elected as a conservative with just his position on gun rights.
I think we are all in agreement (except the loons), that only loons can get elected these days. That wasnāt my point.
“Chris Sununu would probably defeat Biden in a landslide”
Based on what? Name recognition? Personality? Rep’s having basically no rational plan to solve any problem? Reps are currently the party of the insurrection still bowing to their demi-god Trump? Indeed, the 37/38 % solid, diehard Rep trumpkins will easily throw their support to dynamic Sununu. š
Again GW, stick to what you know best ie nude celebs …
btw, Rep potus nominee has won the popular vote once since 1992. And that one time was 2004 Bush, a wartime incumbent potus.
Also, Biden running against an incumbent potus received 81+ million votes.
Yea, Repugs branding problem extends far past the Don as they truly are the party of the insurrection whoever the nominee is notwithstanding. Still kissing the feet of der fĆ¼hrer.
IOW the party of sheep! š® Apologies to sheep …
Plus if Trump loses the nomination he will run third party. Oh what a tangled weave the repugs have wove, eh.
Biden’s problem is that nobody really cares for him. He got elected in 2020 specifically because the name on the other side of the ballot was DJT. Those 2020 voters who went to the polls to vote FOR a candidate went for Trump. The voters who went to the polls to vote AGAINST a candidate voted overwhelmingly (68-30) for Biden.
In other words, Biden might prevail against Trump again, but could not prevail against a rational human being. The good news for him is that the primary system pretty much guarantees that we will not have to face a rational human being.
I’m pretty much in the same camp as a lot of voters. I would vote for Sununu over Biden, but would vote for Biden over Trump. On the other hand, that may not be a fair comparison, because I’d vote for pretty much anyone over Trump. It would be difficult to name a Democratic opponent bad enough to drive me into the Trump camp. I can’t even name one offhand.
Biden’s advantage is that it is impossible to listen to him and to listen to Trump or DeSantis and not conclude that out of that choice, Biden is far and away the best human being. Trump can’t even make a remotely credibly claim to be smarter; he’s a rambling, incoherent loon these days. The other Republican hopefuls are REQUIRED to believe a whole lot of stupid crap about the 2020 election, climate change, and so on.
The only people who really want to vote for DeSantis or Trump are people who care about their money, their guns, or their ability to keep OTHERS from having abortions more than anything else on Earth.
DeSantis is DOA not ready for prime time plus Trump will destroy him. Love it when a plan comes together.
Would not be surprised if he doesn’t run as the loser persona can be everlasting.
Please explain to me how climate change will be impacted by your neighbor driving a Prius so long as China and India contribute to a vast majority of carbon emissions. Instead, you morons are handicapping the US economy while China trounces us, and then comes back to solve climate change through technological advancement. At least you and Al Gore feel good about your smugness, right? Even though you accomplished nothin except holdin the United States back on the world stage by tying down its single greatest natural asset. Itās comical.
Deflections and non-sequiturs notwithstanding damn stevey you’re a god awful debater!
Iām not trying to debate you. Iām asking a serious question. It makes no sense to me and I wish some liberal would actually answer it instead of having a meltdown and making personal attacks.
Exactly. Nothing to say. Because it makes no sense. NONE. It just gives you something to talk about at cocktail parties and feel like you actually did something for the environment. Itās a joke. So you want us to abide by your rules to make you feel better while China sells us solar panels made using fossil fuels? Itās a complete joke. Thatās why you donāt have the blue collar vote. The shit you people care about is ridiculous.
It is interesting even with repug efforts re: voter suppression and intimidation and forever wanting to restrict voting rights for young, minority voters they can’t come close to winning the national potus vote since 2004. Even with their opposition totally discombobulated much of the time ie defund the police, pay off student debt, woke nonsense etc.
Indeed my “party” really, really, really sucks! but the opposition is much, much worse. Politics in a nutshell.
Scotus abortion decision really helped Dems in 2022 and that dynamic won’t change in the next 20/30 yrs imo. Repug diniosaurs will continue to regress ~ consistency!
Most everything Biden proposed last night has over 60% national approval. Some “issues” have over 90% approval.
Yea repugs, as a rule, have always been better at messaging ie lying, but now are totally discombobulated, totally clueless McCarthy and Hunter Biden’s laptop aside. š
And so it goes …
This is all correct.
However, we’re seeing signs of buyer’s remorse and the GOP looking for escape clauses in that contract with the devil for their soul. Trump has 30% of the country 100% under his thumb. That wins exactly zero elections on the national level. Might fuck up some state elections. Might win some house and senate seats. Won’t hold them. Won’t do diddly shit for the GOP. And with his future looking like a lot of iron bars, they’re ready to put him to pasture.
Leadership knows DeSantis has the brains of a pile of cow shit and half the charm. The fact that he won Florida is a statement on Florida, not the future of the GOP.
The question is, who else? They made the deal with the devil, several of their former shining stars committed felonies on Jan 6th and are very likely going to the pokey or at least giving up “public service” once this all shags out.
They can’t pull from the wackadoodle crew, or they’re worse off than with Trump. You know the power movers in the GOP would have loved to see the MTG and Boeberts of the world go bye bye forever even if it means losing seats. They do nothing for the party and are endless ammo for the enemy. Gaetz? He embarrassed them for how long, and all he’s going to do for them is eventually go to jail for paying a teenager for sex.
They’ve gotta find someone from the not-batshit crowd. If they do, Biden is in trouble.
I just don’t know if anyone is left that actually wants to be involved anymore. A bunch of them bailed, for good reason. Until the rest are finally weeded out, I’m not sure any serious players will get in the game on that team.
Meanwhile, Biden gets challenged, he requires with Kamala, and Mayor Pete or any number of other rational, electable people step up.
No, the GOP is in deep shit for quite awhile.
“Based on what?”
The country underwent a massive party shift recently. In the first quarter of 2021, 49% of voters identified themselves as D or leaning-D, compared to 40% R or leaning-R. By the end of that year, it had nearly reversed. It went from a nine-point Democratic edge to a five-point Republican edge – a seismic change in such a short time.
That first wave happened because the “leaners” started leaning in the opposite direction. In 2022, the hard base itself started shifting. In the summer of 2022, self-identified Democrats outnumbered Republicans 30-24. By December, it had shifted to a four-point Republican advantage. (And that’s AFTER the election.) Right around election time, 33% of the voters self-identified as Republicans. That’s the highest it has been since 2006.
All of that tells me that Republicans could win control of the Presidency if they could just run a sensible person.
But again – that seems to be against their nature. Their front-runners all just want to throw meat at the base.
Uncle Scoopy said: “The country underwent a massive party shift recently. In the first quarter of 2021, 49% of voters identified themselves as D or leaning-D, compared to 40% R or leaning-R. By the end of that year, it had nearly reversed. It went from a nine-point Democratic edge to a five-point Republican edge ā a seismic change in such a short time.”
Where does this come from?
That particular fact comes from here
This is not a fact. It is a Gallup poll. “Results are based on aggregated data from all U.S. Gallup telephone surveys in 2021, which included interviews with more than 12,000 randomly sampled U.S. adults.”
It is the results of a poll. How accurate have many, many such polls turned out to be in, oh, say, the last 6 or 7 years?
And exactly where is your contradictory evidence?
2022 election result evidence …
The 2022 election actually supports my point, which is this:
Despite the fact that more people consider themselves Republicans now, the GOP can’t seem to field a rational candidate in the general. They weigh themselves down with nutbags in the primaries who (usually) lose to normal human beings.
Santos being an exception, of course. A victory for nutbaggery, however crooked.
Sununu himself is in fact a perfect example of this problem. He would have been a shoo-in to win the NH Senate seat in 2022, thus giving Mitch 50 seats and his gavel back. Governor of the state, 80% approval rating, including a majority of Democrats. They love the guy in that state. He listened to the GOP national nonsense and said, “er … NO.” They then ended up running a Trump-approved nutburger who lost.
So in a state where a Republican governor ran approvals in the 72-82 range, they essentially handed the Senate seat to a Democrat. That state alone cost them the Senate!
They simply can’t put up a sensible candidate, and even their loyal voters are finding it hard to retain patience.
So the Trump effect which is still on going. ā
Ironically Dems may have held the house if not for NY re-districting discombobulation. Also true in CA. GOTV should be huuuge in 2024 which is always a + for Dems. Stay tuned …
Oh yes, telephone polls about party alignment.
Sure to be accurate in the modern day when nobody under 40 with a brain answers their phone.
Yeah. No. A terrible poll with a terrible premise taken at a terrible time in a terrible way. You’re automatically, culturally, going to find more Republicans. It just makes sense. And like Shiloh says below, um, the election just a couple months ago would suggest its not exactly correct given that democrats did really really well.
Chris Sununu won reelected 57.0-41.5 against a person who would probably be described as a second tier Democratic candidate (Tom Sherman a physician and two term – four year- state senator.)
Maggie Hassan won reelection to the U.S Senate against retired army brigadier general and loony conspiracy theorist Don Bolduc (how do loons like Bolduc and Mike Flynn achieve such high rank in the U.S military?) 53.5-44.4.
So, there are a fair amount of cross over votes (about 1 in 8 based on simply arithmetic.) Hassan vs Sununu would have been a lot closer, one of the marquee races of 2022 I’m sure, but it’s ridiculous to say with any certainty that Sununu would have won.
Interestingly, Hassan is one of the most conservtive Democrats in the Senate. She is frequently the only Democrat in the Senate who gets swept up in Republican moral panics.
Obviously there are other factors, but the other New Hampshire Senator, Jeanne Shaheen, tends to be much more centrist to liberal than Hassan and also tends to win reelection by bigger margins.
That’s not exactly how they read the race up there in Manchester and Concord.
39% of voters felt Hassan deserved a second term; 47% said no. The ratio was 29/51 among independents, who are the most important voting bloc in that state. She defied expectations only because the GOP ran one of the craziest of the crazies.
I am willing to say that a loss to a governor with an approval rating in the 70s and 80s was an obvious and foregone conclusion, even if you are not. Even fuckin’ Bolduc won the male vote 51-46, so all that was needed was somebody who did not turn every female voter off! I don’t even think Sununu was needed. It seems that any rational human being would have done the trick, but Sununu would have turned it into a romp.
Although my son is an officer who has aspirations to flag rank, it is clear to me that the armed services have more than their share of high-ranking crazies, not just Flynn and Bolduc. In May 2021, Gen. Bolduc was one of 124 retired generals and admirals who signed an open letter claiming that the presidential election was “rigged” in Biden’s favor.
A day is a lifetime in politics aside, why didn’t Republicans win 40/50/60 more congressional seats in the 2022 midterm as everyone predicted, polls included. Actually winning an additional seat in the senate.
Also 2024 is the 1st potus election since Trump’s Rep party insurrection. Indeed, the Dem 2024 potus political ads, etc pretty much write themselves, eh.
Carter once upon a time had a 33% lead over Ford. He won by two pts. The power of incumbency even though ironically Ford wasn’t elected v-p or potus. Digressing.
But good to know you believe today’s political polling hook, line and sinker, the underestimated abortion issue notwithstanding.
Trump is just a symptom of the overall Republican’s Fascist problem.
Mentioning Carter in a point about the power of incumbency? Are you sure you don’t want cite Herbert Hoover instead? As I recall, Mr. Peanut was back on the farm in Jan of 1981, after an election where he had to vote for himself because he could not be sure anyone else would.
Well losing a 33 pt. lead to Ford is telling ie a god awful campaigner plus a very weak potus hence, ergo, therefore losing to Reagan by 10 pts. The yin/yang of potus elections, but the power of incumbency is huuuge unless the economy tanks: see Carter/Bush41 or you’re an outright nihilistic, egomaniacal moron.
Apologies to morons …
Carter was a bad candidate, and Ford ran ads against Carter’s ‘weirdness’ but one of the probably surpringly overlooked factors is that the economy for 1976, especially after the primary season (before the conventions) was quite to very strong.
Yes, there was ongoing inflation, and Ford’s attempt to WIP inflation was a failure, but most Americans had adjusted to the inflation due to COLA agreements.
I know a lot of people into elections especially when they have a financial involvement like to point to major campaign turning points (Carter lusting in his heart, Ford not believing Eastern Europeans were dominated by the Soviet Union) or various campaign promises or Ford pardoning Nixon, but at the end of the day, most elections, until recently anyway, really were ‘it’s the economy, stupid.’