“Military analyst: There are signs that Prigozhin’s rebellion was staged”

I would go even farther than this guy.

Granted, I am a skeptical man, but here’s what I see:

  • Prigozhin challenged Putin with an armed rebellion, but was allowed to re-settle in Belarus, with all charges dropped. (Oh, that Putin – always the forgiving guy!)
  • Prigozhin is going to end up in Belarus, unpunished, not as a lonely exile, but with his mercenary army.
  • The Wagner group potentially could have access to the nuclear weapons that Putin conveniently started moving there last week.
  • It is only about 100 miles from Kyiv to the nearest point in Belarus.

All of the bullet-points above seem to be undisputed facts, yet few people seem to find that concatenation of circumstances to be alarming.

Add one more possibility. Russia and Belarus have been in talks to unite as a single country. Even if that does not happen, Belarus is just a vassal state, so as Putin sees it, Prigozhin is just in another part of his empire.

Some Ukrainians have noticed. One Ukrainian blogger wrote:

There will be a threat from the north. There is no need for “patriotic heroism,” but a sober approach to the current situation is needed. It was too easy for Putin and Prigozhin to reconcile. For Russia, a couple dozen corpses and five downed planes are a trifle when implementing a secret operation to “kindly” transfer Wagner specifically to Belarus. And think about why, under an agreement and “good will,” Prigozhin was sent specifically to Belarus and not to Africa or Syria, where Wagner has existing bases.

Another opined:

Even if there are only 15,000 mercenaries, in order to prevent any provocations on their part, we need to redeploy 5-6 brigades to the North. Under the conditions of the offensive in the South, this is a lot.

15 thoughts on ““Military analyst: There are signs that Prigozhin’s rebellion was staged”

  1. Fake news aside, Trump did describe Putin’s invasion of Ukraine as “genius” and “savvy” so hey, the proof is the pudding …

    Hey, this is other crap! 😛

  2. Well those Wagner troops aren’t in Belarus currently so they’d have to be moved. Moving 25,000 troops is unlikely to go undetected

    1. It will be detected, but people will debate the purpose. Prigozhin could easily argue that he’s just defending himself and his men against reprisals from Putin.

      And the latest report is that one Wagner base will be built in Belarus immediately, with more to follow.

      1. And just maybe if the Wagners move across the border, there’s some sort of staged “border incursion” from Ukraine (ask the Finns how that works) and the pig farmer (L) declares that Belarus is entering the war. Soviet, er Russian, troops enter to prop him up. They would never leave.

        1. I think it was def staged in light of new info. Putin wants to disband Wagner as an autonomous mercenary group and integrate them into the Russian army. Obviously Prigozhins troops would mutiny if they found out he was allowing them to be folded into the meat grinder where they’d have to sleep, eat, and shit alongside Russian scum whose sole virtue is the effectiveness with which their bones can be grinded into meat. The only way Putin could protect Prigozhin is to take the decision out of his hands by having him stage a fake coup after which he could travel safely to Belarus shielded from the shitstorm to come. The hope is that the Wagner troops, not being that much smarter than the Russian troops, will be too stupid to realize both their leaders are stabbing them in the back. Perhaps when they’re given their new Russian military contracts and see that their new salaries are to be set at the heavily discounted “treason” rate they’ll realize who their true overlord is. Shit, if their mercenaries maybe the US can hire them to March on Moscow for real this time

          1. If it were staged why would the Tsar have fled Moscow rather than staying and playing hero. Not that we know for sure that he did flee. Russia doing that riddle mystery enigma thing again.

  3. The war having lasted longer than two wks Putin already looks weak notwithstanding, what would a “staged” event accomplish, especially if the truth was revealed.

    The truth is out there. 😮

    Yielding back the balance of my time …

  4. I dunno. It also made Putin look weak, because Wagner was able to march unchallenged nearly to Moscow. If he cannot defend Moscow against a mercenary group like Wagner, how can he defend it against NATO or even Ukraine. Although it could have been part of the plan, Putin has never admitted to inferiority of any sort, and has always tried to look the strongest. I don’t think he’d ever plan anything that makes him look bad, even if it’s for the greater good. He’s good at lying, but only to make himself look like the alpha. That’s why so many U.S. celebrities and politicians admired him.

    Interesting thought though. Wagner in Belarus with nukes?

    1. Well if it was staged he wasn’t “allowed” to do anything. He was given a script.

    2. You don’t have to like or agree with an individuals politics or tactics in order to acknowledge that they are an effective leader.

      “Who were your ancestors, the ones who made your family rich? Fancy lads in silk? They were fucking cutthroats. That’s how all the great houses started, isn’t it? With a hard bastard who was good at killing people. Kill a few hundred people, they make you a lord. Kill a few thousand, they make you king.”

      1. “And then all your cocksucking grandsons can ruin the family with their cocksucking ways.”

        Bronn was the best character in that show. He was underused.

      2. Worked for the original William the Bastard, later known as Conqueror. Not much of his blood left in King Chuck, but appropriately it does come through a bastard line.

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