Trump is the betting favorite.
More interesting to me is the way they rank the also-rans. Per the oddsmakers, Michelle Obama is more likely to become President than either Gavin Newsom or Kamala Harris, so they’d kinda-sorta consider her the front-runner in case Biden were to disappear from the picture. That’s amazing because, as far as I know, Michelle Obama is not running for the job and has never expressed an interest in it. Her candidacy appears to be entirely a delusion of the right-wing rumor mill.
The oddsmakers also consider Michelle far more likely to be elected President in 2024 than Ron DeSantis. Now that one doesn’t surprise me, considering that I am probably more likely to be elected than Ron DeSantis. In fact, the only person in America less likely to be inaugurated in 2025 is the “rent is too damn high” guy.
SIDEBAR: Nikki Haley says she will not accept a vice-presidential nomination. “I’m not running for vice-president.” I don’t know why not. Trump will be 78 if he begins a new term. It seems to me that running to be the vice-president beneath a 78-year-old fat guy is approximately the same as running to be the president, except with a longer waiting period between election day and inauguration day.
Joking aside, Trump is unlikely to give her the chance to decline that nomination. He needs an absolute loyalist in that position because, thanks to a quirky element of our system, the vice-president is the only person in the executive branch that the President can’t fire. Trump must therefore seek a blind loyalist who will simply echo every Trump pronouncement. In other words, he needs a total buffoon who will be nothing more than his loyal, unprincipled, unquestioning flunky – a younger version of Rudy Giuliani.
From Politico: The GOP Is Already Clashing Over Trump’s VP Pick