Oppenheimer is the prohibitive favorite:

The format of the list below is (Title Odds IMDb RT%)

Oppenheimer -700 8.4 93%
Poor Things +1200 8.4 92%
Barbie +1400 6.9 88%
The Holdovers +1400 8.0 97%
Killers of the Flower Moon +2500 7.7 93%
Anatomy of a Fall +2500 7.8 96%
The Zone of Interest +4000 7.7 93%
American Fiction +5000 7.6 94%
Past Lives +10000 7.9 96%
Maestro +10000 6.6 79%

I have seen them all but Anatomy of a Fall and Past Lives. I will see Anatomy tomorrow, but I’m not sure when I’ll see Past Lives. I agree with IMDb voters and critics that Maestro is the weakest entry. I think Bradley Cooper did a great job of putting it all together as the director, but not such a great job on the script.

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Speaking of Oppenheimer, Cillian Murphy and Robert Downey Junior are also heavy favorites for the male acting nods, and Chris Nolan is considered an absolute lock for the direction award. (-2000)

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Last year all the favorites won in the major categories except for Best Supporting Actress, where Angela Bassett was considered a very slight favorite over the winner, Jamie Lee Curtis. That one was considered a three-way horse race among those two and Kerry Condon, and it was so closely matched that it would be fair to say that they were all co-favorites.

Only one long shot came in last year. All Quiet paid off 9-1 for best production design. (I’m assuming that you consider 9-1 a long shot, and that you give a shit about the Oscar for production design).


1985 – Ga Ga Chwala Bohaterom

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1987 – King Size

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1987 – Paciag do Hollywood

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1987 – Season of Monsters

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1991 – Mleczna Droga (The Milky Way)

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1993 – Washing Machine

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1994 – Fatal Past

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1994 – Pret-a-Porter

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1995 – Too Fast, Too Young

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1995 – Wrzeciono Czasu

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1996 – Adrienne Lecouvreur

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1996 – Self-Portrait with a Lover

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1997 – Happy New York

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1997 – The Sundial

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1999 – Ajlawju

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2003 – Ubu the King

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2006 – Summer Love

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