Author: UncleScoopy

The stats: Coronavirus mapped and quantified:

• world outbreak monitored
• interactive databases and graphing capabilities
• world testing tracked
• USA outbreak mapped
• USA testing tracked daily
• USA fatality projections

ADDED 6/3: Tuesday’s numbers:

In terms of total daily fatalities across the globe, the Three Blind Trumps took the top three spots. The number of new cases was 115k, the fourth highest of all time.

1. Brazil 1232
2. USA 1134
3. UK 324
4. Mexico 237
5. India 221

I believe that the large increase over last week in the USA is a statistical anomaly related to last week’s Monday holiday. Historically, Tuesday and Wednesday numbers are virtually identical, but last week the two days split @ 700-1500, presumably because many people were off on Monday (the same phenomenon that happens every Sunday). I assume that @ 1100-1100 was the correct split, which means that Tuesday was about the same as last week. I assume that to be true because it is completely consistent with what he have seen all week. In the previous six days, the number of fatalities averaged 1059, as compared to 1055 on the same six days of the week before that. We will not know for sure until tomorrow, but I’m guessing that the Wednesday numbers will be substantially below last Wednesday’s, probably in the 1000-1200 range.

The most prominent increase in the American numbers is occurring in Los Angeles, where a situation which had been under control reversed itself as soon as the state re-opened. California reported about 3,000 new cases on Tuesday, with 73 new fatalities, 59 of which were in LA County.

In terms of total daily fatalities per capita, Sweden again led the way. The following countries had more than three Tuesday fatalities per million population:

1. Sweden 6.4
2. Brazil 5.8
3. UK 4.8
4. Peru 4.0
5. Chile 3.9
6. USA 3.4

USA daily COVID fatalities. Increases over the previous week are highlighted in red.

	4 Weeks Ago	3 Weeks Ago	2 weeks Ago	Last Week	This Week
Friday	1,897	1,687	1,595	1,293	1,212
Saturday	1,691	1,422	1,218	1,036	1,015
Sunday	1,153	750	865	617	638
Monday	1,324	1,008	1,003	505	730
Tuesday	2,350	1,630	1,552	774	1134
Wednesday	2,528	1,772	1,461	1,535
Thursday	2,129	1,715	1,418	1,223

ADDED 5/31: France says, “Oops. Maybe we had the coronavirus before China!” “If confirmed, this is evidence that the virus was spreading in Europe well before COVID-19 had been officially identified in China.” At the same time, Chinese scientists have cast doubt on the theory that the virus originated in that famous wet market.

The South China Morning Post, citing Chinese government data, reported that the first documented case of someone in China’s suffering from COVID-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus, occurred Nov. 17. The new French data suggests that their first case dates back to November 16th!

The mystery deepens!

ADDED 5/30: Vietnam pulled off the ultimate miracle. They had 97 million people, a long border with China, daily flights from Wuhan … and a COVID-19 death total of ZERO! Not one death. Not even one elderly person. How did they do it? All of my guesses were wrong. I figured it was being bathed in the blood of Jesus, having the localities bid against each other for PPEs, downplaying the virus as an alarmist hoax, shilling for unproven drug cures, investigating bleach cocktails, telling the regional governors to open their areas back up without meeting the criteria set by the health ministry, having the highest national officials refuse to wear masks, and holding large rallies as late as March. Damn, I was SO close! It turns out the true solution was for their prime minister to place his idiot son-in-law in charge of co-ordinating the medical supply chain. That would have been my next guess!

UPDATED 5/30: The number of American fatalities caused by the spread of the coronavirus pandemic seems to be understated by about 20,000 to 30,000. “Many Covid-19 deaths were simply listed as some variant of ‘respiratory failure’ or ‘multisystem organ failure.’” “U.S. deaths soared in the early weeks of the pandemic, far exceeding the number attributed to covid-19” At least two states, Florida and South Carolina, are suspected of falsifying the COVID numbers.

UPDATED 5/30: Another 2.1 million workers filed new unemployment claims last week. That’s another very high number, but there is some good news. The number of continuing claims dropped by 4 million, therefore the number of unemployed people seems to have dropped. That’s a ray of hope, but an analysis of the coronavirus pandemic’s effects on the labor market estimates that 42% of recent layoffs will result in permanent job loss.

UPDATED 5/27: Sweden over-Trumps the Trump Trio

Sweden’s stay-open strategy appears to have been a complete failure in every respect, because (1) it has the highest current fatality rate in the world over the past two weeks; (2) the most recent numbers are not moving in the correct direction; (3) herd immunity is far in the future (only 7% of the residents of Stockholm have developed antibodies); (4) “the economy will be just as badly hit as its European neighbors, if not worse.”

ADDED 5/27:

This graph is amazing. It shows that measuring #SARSCoV2 levels in municipal sewage almost perfectly predicts forthcoming #COVID19 cases with a full week’s notice (R=0.994). It’s one of several discoveries in this new study from @Yale: https://t.co/hZVdXebx2D. C-19 is #InThePoop pic.twitter.com/shNzTKYoYP

— Brennan Spiegel, MD, MSHS (@BrennanSpiegel) May 26, 2020

ADDED 5/24: A massive new study puts the kibosh on hydroxychloroquine. A study of 96,000 hospitalized coronavirus patients on six continents found that those who took the drug had a significantly higher risk of death compared with those who did not. People treated with hydroxychloroquine were also more likely to develop a type of irregular heart rhythm, or arrhythmia.

“It’s one thing not to have benefit, but this shows distinct harm. If there was ever hope for this drug, this is the death of it.”

ADDED 5/22: American billionaires got $434 billion richer during the pandemic

UPDATED 5/22: An MIT study, Will Coronavirus Pandemic Diminish by Summer?, had previously suggested that 90% of transmission occurs within a narrow temperature band (37 to 63 F) and a limited band of absolute humidity. The scientists did not claim that transmission ceases outside those temperature and humidity bands, but that the spread occurs more slowly. A newer study from Harvard also shows that summer weather is beneficial, but the study also stresses that weather can’t stop the spread without additional proactive measures from humans.

“Our projections suggest warmer temperature, more humidity, and moderate outdoor UV exposure may offer a modest reduction in reproductive number; however, upcoming changes in weather alone will NOT be enough to fully contain the transmission of COVID-19.”

ADDED 5/21: Black Americans are dying of Covid-19 at three times the rate of white people

ADDED 5/20: The big question comes up again – Can people be reinfected by COVID-19? Thirteen sailors on the Teddy Roosevelt, all considered to have recovered and all having tested negative at least twice, have exhibited symptoms again after returning to duty, and have tested positive. “Whether the afflicted sailors were reinfected or still had the virus after multiple negative tests remains under investigation.”

ADDED 5/19: New polling shows that 49 of the 50 governors have a better approval rating than Trump for their handling of the pandemic. The one exception: Kemp of Georgia. Republican governors dominate both the top and the bottom of the list, with all the Dems in the middle: six of the top seven are Republicans; seven of the bottom eight are Republicans.

ADDED 5/16: President Trump actually said this in opposition to “overrated” testing: “When you test, you find something is wrong with people. If we didn’t do any testing, we would have very few cases.”

UPDATED 5/9: In a bizarre irony, hospitals are making mass lay-offs in the middle of the coronavirus pandemic. The institutions are suffering financially because they have had to eliminate all the most profitable parts of their business in order to treat corona victims. In all, 1.4 million health care workers lost their jobs in April, 135,000 of those in hospitals.

ADDED 4/29: New evidence reveals: “Coronavirus infections greatly outnumber confirmed covid-19 cases, potentially by a factor of 10 or more.” My guess it that it’s somewhere between 3-to-1 and 6-to-1. The USA has a ratio of about 18 cases per death. The proper ratio, based upon South Korea and other countries, is probably between 50 and 100 cases per death, indicating a fatality rate between 1% and 2%. That’s a wide range because the calculation is an oversimplification on my part. There are many factors going into the fatality rate, and it’s not necessarily fair to compare areas, but my guess is probably in the right ballpark.

NEW 3/28: The data reveal that covid-19 is much more dangerous for men. The data are consistent from country to country: men make up 72% of the intensive care unit admissions in Spain, 73% in France, 75% in Norway, 71% in the UK. While researchers cannot yet determine how much of the gender disparity can be attributed to behavioral components, it seems clear that the significance of the gap across cultures means that there must be some biological explanation.

March 9:

The Fake News Media and their partner, the Democrat Party, is doing everything within its semi-considerable power (it used to be greater!) to inflame the CoronaVirus situation, far beyond what the facts would warrant. Surgeon General, “The risk is low to the average American.”

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) March 9, 2020

March 4: “A lot of people will have this, and it’s very mild. They will get better very rapidly. They don’t even see a doctor. They don’t even call a doctor.”

Feb 26: “We have thousands or hundreds of thousands of people that get better, just by, you know, even going to work. Some of them go to work, but they get better.”

Feb 26: “We’re going to be pretty soon at only five people. And we could be at just one or two people over the next short period of time..”

Feb 26: “We’re going down, not up. We’re going very substantially down, not up..”

Feb 26: “The 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero.”

Feb 24:

The Coronavirus is very much under control in the USA. We are in contact with everyone and all relevant countries. CDC & World Health have been working hard and very smart. Stock Market starting to look very good to me!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) February 24, 2020

The Dow was at 27,960 that day. One month later it was at 18,592.

Jan 24:

China has been working very hard to contain the Coronavirus. The United States greatly appreciates their efforts and transparency. It will all work out well. In particular, on behalf of the American People, I want to thank President Xi!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 24, 2020

Jan 22: “We have it totally under control. It’s one person coming in from China, and we have it under control. It’s going to be just fine.”