“If true, the allegation would mean that Nunes — the chief defender of Trump as ranking member of the House Intelligence Committee, which has been holding impeachment hearings for several weeks — was himself involved in the very plot the committee is investigating.”

The lawyer for Lev Parnas, the Giuliani associate who was arrested at the airport, said “I can confirm that Victor Shokin told Lev Parnas that he had met with Nunes in Vienna in late 2018, and that Derek Harvey informed that they were investigating the activities of Joe and Hunter Biden related to Burisma.” (Derek Harvey is Nunes’ investigator.)

Nunes says the story is false and has threatened to sue those who published it.

The story does match up with the chronology of known Nunes activities. Congressional travel records show that Nunes and three aides, including Harvey, took a trip to Europe from Nov 30 to December 3 of last year.

My experience is that anyone who immediately threatens to sue is guilty of what he or she is accused of, and is trying to bully the accuser or to fight the case in the court of public opinion. Innocent people contact the sources with clear evidence that the story is incorrect, then ask for a public retraction and apology, preferably on the front page. If no satisfaction is forthcoming, then they file a lawsuit. (Without saying publicly “I’m going to do it.” The time for crowing is AFTER the verdict.) The fact that they have presented the evidence, asked for the retraction, and failed to get it, can multiply the settlement significantly, since such a sequence could be an indication of malicious intent. In fact, following that process is probably the surest way to establish malice. On the other hand, shouting “I’m going to sue” is not only useless in the legal process, but it is actually against the interest of the (allegedly) offended party, since doing so wastes a great chance to establish intent.

Weasels are like poor poker players – they aren’t aware of the “tells.” “I’m going to sue” is a tell. Think about people who say “I won’t dignify that with an answer.” They never seem to realize that that means “yes, I did it,” since if the answer were “no,” they would simply say “no”!

And by a wide margin. As in Iowa, he has almost as much support as the next two candidates added together. That little scamp is really on a roll.

Buttigieg went from 10% in the last St Anselm poll to 25% today. His 15-point increase came about equally from Warren and Biden. Warren has dropped 10 points, Biden 9, Bernie 2. (If you do the math, that’s 21 down and only 15 up. The difference is that Klobuchar and Steyer gained three points apiece.)

=============

Nationwide, Biden’s lead is widening. Among the three most recent polls, Elizabeth Warren has dropped to third in two of them.

Bloomberg was considered among the choices in two of the three polls, and the results show that he has already soared into sixth place in the massive field. (To be fair, sixth place is far, far from contention.)

‘A Warning’: 10 Takeaways From Anonymous Senior Trump Official’s Book

“I’ve only won two cases in the courts as president. And you know what one of them was? A case against a stripper. Can we just get rid of the judges? Let’s get rid of the fucking judges.”

“I don’t care. I believe Putin.”

Buttigieg is currenly polling at 25%, almost as much as the next two added together. Warren, Biden and Sanders are in a virtual tie for second place, according to the polling conducted by the Des Moines Register.

The results are quite consistent with the recent Monmouth poll.

Both polls show that Kamala Harris has fallen to 3%, as Amy Klobuchar has emerged as the leader in the second tier. Ms. Harris has been the major failure of the 2020 campaign. Back in July, she was polling as high as 18% in Iowa, and she has dropped to almost nothing despite campaigning tirelessly and almost exclusively in the Hawkeye State.

By the way, that’s a totally dumb nickname for the state, since it has absolutely nothing to do with Iowa or any characteristic of the state or its denizens. New Hampshire has some granite and Florida has some sunshine, but Iowa was named by a couple of promoters that liked James Fenimore Cooper, who was actually writing about upstate New York!

So what is Iowa known for? It is the birthplace of sliced bread! (Not kidding. Otto Rohwedder, the inventor of sliced bread, was born in 1880 in Davenport.) Now THAT must be important because people often say, “the greatest invention since sliced bread.”

Although Holmes was called to the stand to testify about a conversation he heard between Sondland and Donald Trump, and Sondland’s subsequent comments on that conversation, the most shocking part of his statement was about another incident:

“Ambassador Sondland told Mr. Yermak that the security assistance freeze would not be lifted until President Zelenskyy committed to the Burisma/Biden investigation.”

Holmes did not have first-hand knowledge of this conversation, so the value of his claim can’t be evaluated until Sondland testifies.

As for the specific conversation Holmes was involved in, his statement went like this:

“I then heard President Trump ask, ‘So, he’s gonna do the investigation?’ Ambassador Sondland replied that ‘he’s gonna do it,’ adding that President Zelenskyy will do ‘anything you ask him to.’

I asked Ambassador Sondland if it was true that the President did not ‘give a shit about Ukraine.’ Ambassador Sondland agreed that the President did not ‘give a shit about Ukraine.’ I asked why not, and Ambassador Sondland stated that the President only cares about ‘big stuff.’ I noted that there was ‘big stuff’ going on in Ukraine, like a war with Russia, and Ambassador Sondland replied that he meant ‘big stuff’ that benefits the President, like the ‘Biden investigation.'”

“In the run-up to the 2016 election, White House senior policy adviser Stephen Miller promoted white nationalist literature, pushed racist immigration stories and obsessed over the loss of Confederate symbols after Dylann Roof’s murderous rampage, according to leaked emails.”

As Congreve said, “Heaven has no rage like love to hatred turned.”

I hear more and more people referring to Elizabeth Warren as the Democratic front-runner, but the national polls just don’t reflect that. She is not beating Biden in any of the recent polls, although they are tied on one.

In the most recent Harvard-Harris poll, Warren is in a distant third, and Biden has as much support as Bernie and Warren added together. (33-18-15)

Warren is, however, the frontrunner in Iowa and New Hampshire, so maybe that’s what the pundits are referring to.

“Democrats in the country’s most pivotal general election battlegrounds prefer a moderate presidential nominee who would seek common ground with Republicans rather than pursue an ambitious, progressive agenda, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll of primary voters across six states. As the Democratic candidates intensify their argument over how best to defeat President Trump, their core voters in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Arizona and Florida are counseling them to pursue a political middle ground.”

NOTES:

(1) Biden has large leads in most of those states, although Warren leads a close three-way race in Wisconsin.

(2) Those states still have large numbers of undecided voters

(3) Everyone below Buttigieg is dead in the water, and he ain’t doin’ so well himself, despite his massive war chest.

“Former Obama White House staffer R. David Edelman woke up Thursday to a bizarre new reality: Many people on the pro-Trump internet were convinced that he was the anonymous whistleblower at the heart of the impeachment proceedings.

And then the death threats started.”

It would have been bad enough if he had been the real whistleblower, but he isn’t, and could not have been. Nothing in his history matches with the description or situation of the whistleblower. The nutcases who tried to out him are as stupid as they are dangerous.

If you really care, you can probably determine the identity of the real whistleblower with a quick Google search. I don’t know why anyone would care, since (1) it was the ICIG (Michael Atkinson) who determined that the claim was credible and pushed the case forward, (2) the whistleblower has nothing further to offer, and (3) everything he claimed has already been investigated.

Even if the whistleblower was Joe Biden himself, the question of bias is now completely irrelevant, since everything in his complaint is being subjected to scrutiny. But while the identity is not important to the facts of the case, it is important to Trump.  If the facts stand alone, unattached to a name, Trump can’t muster any defense because he is completely guilty as charged. His only recourse is to attach the facts to a name, so he can malign and slander the person. From his point of view, that is the smart play. Hell, it’s the only play!

 

Bloomberg!

Isn’t the number supposed to be going down?

  • How long until Hillary busts out the new pants suits?
  • Mike Dukakis and Walter Mondale are still alive.
  • Jimmy Carter is eligible for a second term
  • Gary Hart’s affairs are no longer disqualifying
  • Al Gore and John Kerry are younger than either Bernie or Biden!

Although to be fair, even Kirk Douglas may be younger than those two guys.

“Former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, after saying in March that he wouldn’t run for president, is backtracking and preparing a potential run for a 2020 bid,” said a spokesman for the billionaire.

Well, among all the New York mayors currently on the national scene, he’s the one I like best. Having said that, let me add that it is roughly equivalent to saying that among all the stooges, Shemp has the most sensible haircut.

Which is nothing new, so why buy the book?

You may enjoy some of the writing.

Trump careens from one self-inflicted crisis to the next, “like a twelve-year-old in an air traffic control tower, pushing the buttons of government indiscriminately, indifferent to the planes skidding across the runway and the flights frantically diverting away from the airport.”

Working for Trump is “like showing up at the nursing home at daybreak to find your elderly uncle running pantsless across the courtyard and cursing loudly about the cafeteria food, as worried attendants tried to catch him,” the author writes. “You’re stunned, amused, and embarrassed all at the same time. Only your uncle probably wouldn’t do it every single day, his words aren’t broadcast to the public, and he doesn’t have to lead the US government once he puts his pants on.”

“Senator Elizabeth Warren receives 20 percent support among Iowa likely Democratic caucus- goers, with South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg getting 19 percent, Sen. Bernie Sanders at 17 percent, and former Vice President Joe Biden at 15 percent.”

The difference between first and fourth is meaningless statistically. The MOE is 4.5. The result just shows that, as of now, any one of them could be the winner

This is actually the third consecutive Iowa poll in which Biden has finished fourth. The latest NYT poll and the Iowa State poll produced the same finding.

The details show …

… that Mayor Pete has a realistic chance of winning. Among white likely caucus-goers with a college education, Buttigieg tops the field! Among “moderate and conservative” Democrats, Buttigieg slides into the top spot by a point over Biden. But there is a more important fact buried in the details: among those who support the other candidates (outside the big four), 22 percent say that the little fella would be their second choice, 21 percent say Bernie, 12 percent say Sleepy Joe, and Pocahontas gets only 6 percent, so Pete might be the top choice if the poll were a forced choice between the four people who actually have a chance.

… that Biden himself may face the daunting prospect of winning the nomination after an Iowa loss. That’s a tough row for His Somnolence to hoe. From 1996-2016, the Democratic winner in Iowa has been the eventual nominee (although two of those were incumbent presidents, so the process was perfunctory). It can be done. Bill Clinton lost both Iowa (1) and New Hampshire (2) and went on to the 1992 nomination. In fact, Clinton finished a dismal fourth with only 2% of the vote in Iowa, but an also-ran finish in Iowa is not really considered a defeat for an upstart underdog, as Slick Willie was at the time, while it can seem like the kiss of death for the front-runner.

Continue reading “Iowa is a 4-way race – and Biden is 4th”

“The much-anticipated book ‘A Warning,’ reportedly written by an unnamed senior White House official, claims that high-level White House aides were certain that Vice President Mike Pence would support the use of the 25th Amendment to have President Donald Trump removed from office because of mental incapacity.”

(NOTE: The author of this book is the same person who gained notoriety for an anonymous NYT op-ed some time ago.)

“According to Anonymous, there was no doubt in the minds of these senior officials that Pence would support invoking the 25th Amendment if the majority of the Cabinet signed off on it.”

This is basically gossip at this point. The author does not specify which aides believed that, or how many, or why. It is possible that this was just two people stating their gut feel, and did not involve any overt indication from Pence. Whether the officials believed it or not, I see no evidence that Pence did anything to create this belief.