John Bolton offered that enigmatic and ominous promise about his service with and exit from DJT.

Bolton vs Trump – who cares? Vince McMahon did not become that rich by getting heels to face-off. Ya gots ta have a babyface.

Although I would not object if the face-off occurred in the one place where all celebrity feuds should be settled – Thunderdome.

Oh sure, I believe him. I just figured that Wilbur Ross woke up one day and thought, “I’m going to tell our weather scientists to stop telling the truth.” Yeah, he just did it as a goof. What a rascal! Funny, funny little guy. After all, Wilbur just has that wacky sense of humor, and the Secretary of Commerce has nothing more important on his plate.

One detail in the original story was especially damning for Ross’s role in the scandal. Apparently Mulvaney did not tell Ross to start firing people if they failed to comply. The little weasel added that detail on his own!

As I said, funny guy!

This poll is relatively significant. The WaPo/ABC poll is the only one rated A+ by the statistics nerds at the 538 site.

The key findings are:

  • Trump’s approval has dropped by six points in two months.
  • The drop is correlated to fears of an economic slowdown.
  • We can now see more specifically how Trump is losing the uneducated whites that represent the fundaments of his support. This poll breaks that group down by gender. It turns out that Trump’s support is actually increasing among uneducated white males (now 69%, up 5 points), but is dropping drastically among their female counterparts (now 42%, down 12 points)
  • Trump’s rating is also plummeting among college educated white males. The drop was a precipitous 15 points in just two months, from 49% approval to 34%.

So far: (1) He lost his majority in Parliament when one member of his party crossed over to the other side while he was speaking; (2) He kicked 21 people out of his own party when they dared to vote against him; (3) Two members of his cabinet resigned, including his own brother; (4) He was defeated in his call for a snap election; (5) He has suspended Parliament.

Parliament has also defied Johnson by passing a law requiring the PM to ask for a three-week delay if no Brexit deal is approved by October 19. “‘I will not ask for another delay,’ Johnson said. But he has few easy ways out of it. His options — all of them extreme — include disobeying the law, which could land him in court or even prison, and resigning so that someone else would have to ask for a delay. “

I am impressed that British lawmakers consider principles more important than party loyalty. It would be nice if we had American lawmakers who believed in anything at all (other than being re-elected).

On the other side of the coin, some people think that all of Boris’s defeats are part of his master plan to get a new election and a Parliamentary majority. Of course, there will always be opposing views. Many Americans argue that Trump’s obvious stupidity is just a ruse, a magician’s misdirection, tricking his opponents and the media into focusing on distractions while he does important things under the radar.

But frankly I don’t see any real hope for this Brexit process because of the Irish border. Making the matter more complicated is that the people of Scotland generally want to stay in the EU, and Scotland can eventually leave the UK if it chooses to. If that were to transpire, it would create yet another open border between the UK and the EU.

It’s a very chaotic situation. You might call it “a sticky wicket,” if you were so inclined. There’s no obvious solution that can create order from the chaos, and it can’t be done by a simple command from the “or-DUH, or-DUH” guy.

(That would be Bercow, the speaker of the House of Commons, yet another obnoxious blond guy with silly hair, although most of his blond hair has now become white.)

I am, however, thrilled that this seems to be the high point in history for obnoxious old blond guys with silly hair. I feel my that my time must be near! (Below – me about a week ago.)

More Sharpie-gate nonsense. Ross threatened to fire the top admins at NOAA unless they disavowed their scientists’ statement that Alabama was not at risk after the president’s pronouncement.

And to make matters worse, the top administrators at NOAA then told their scientists not to tell the truth! “This is the first time I’ve felt pressure from above to not say what truly is the forecast. It’s hard for me to wrap my head around. One of the things we train on is to dispel inaccurate rumors.”

The latest:

In an email to staff, NOAA’s acting chief scientist Craig McLean credited the National Weather Service’s Birmingham office with correcting “any public misunderstanding in an expert and timely way,” in other words, disputing the president’s misinformation. Per The Washington Post, McLean said he is “pursuing the potential violations of our NOAA Administrative Order on Scientific Integrity.”

“Biden got the time period, the location, the heroic act, the type of medal, the military branch and the rank of the recipient wrong, as well as his own role in the ceremony.” 

The Washington Post, August 29, 2019

“I swear as a Biden, I was standing on the battlefield at Camlann Plain, when Mordred began clearing the foliage with napalm and strafing King Arthur’s forces with tactical nukes. Brian Williams was there; he’ll back me up. After the battle, I pinned a medal on Arthur’s top knight, Sergeant York, when he begged me to stop and give the medal instead to Bob Hope for all he did for the troops.”

I guess the guy I should be making fun of now is Joe Sestak, who comes in with a perfect 0.0 in the polls, but I like the guy.

  • Brainy – second in his class at Annapolis, PhD from Harvard
  • Dedicated – worked his way up to three-star admiral.
  • Experienced in government – two terms in the House.

He does have one liability. He’s basically been unemployed for eight years! (And that ain’t about to end with a stint in the White House.)

Back to the major theme …

The polls still seem to be hazy. A couple of them show a close three-way race, while the others still show Joe Biden running away from the pack. The weirdest anomaly is the battle between Warren and Sanders for the left wing. IDB shows Warren killing Sanders 24-12, while Emerson shows Bernie winning that battle 24-15. Nate Silver does rate IBD as one of his most reliable pollsters with an A- rating, but he rates Emerson just a hair below at B+, so I can’t make any sense of it.

True enough. Trump has been loved in Puerto Rico since he brought the island glory with his widely acclaimed performance as Bernardo in the revival of West Side Story. Normally people would object to having a fat old white guy in brownface play a young Puerto Rican, but he was just so graceful, and he honored the culture so much, that everyone forgave him.

And that lead is 26 points among independent voters.

Most shocking, Biden and Sanders now lead Trump among white voters! That is a very big deal. In the history of national exit polls, 1972 to the present, no Democratic candidate has ever won the white vote over the Republican! (Bill Clinton came very close, but those results were polluted by third party candidates.) In the past five elections, no Democrat has come within 10 points of winning the white vote.

I should note that polls taken so far from the election have approximately zero predictive power. They indicate how the election might go if held today, within their margin of error of course, but public support for candidates is volatile.

Plus Biden may not get the nomination. The various polls seem to present us with conflicting views. Despite Biden’s fading numbers in other polls, this Quinnipiac poll shows Biden far in the lead, with 32% preference, compared to 19% for Pocahontas and 15% for Bernie. Warren has risen steadily from 4% in March to her current 19%. Kamala Harris started in the 7-8 range in March, and zoomed to 20 after the first debate. She was a serious contender there for a while, in a close second place on July 2, with essentially all of her new-found support coming from former Biden supporters, but then she plummeted right back to the 7-8 range after the second debate. Sic transit gloria mundi.

On the other hand, even without Biden in the race, Trump is looking weak. In all match-ups against the top five candidates, Trump is fixed at 38-40% of the vote. The support for the Democrat varies, but even Mayor Pete is nine points ahead.

Continue reading “Biden’s lead over Trump increases to 16 points”

Morning Consult has a unique system that attempts to track Presidential popularity by state. The most interesting feature is that you can move a slider to see how it changes from time to time.

I would not place total faith in the state numbers because the entire poll consists of only 5000 people, which is a solid national sampling, but indicates that the portrait of each state must be based on a small sample. A small sample can have some value if it is massaged carefully for age, gender, political leanings and so forth, but the numbers should still be viewed only as a broad indicator rather than an accurate measurement. Think of it as taking the temperature by standing outside rather than by consulting a scientific thermometer. You know for sure that it’s getting cooler, but you don’t know exactly how much.

To be fair, Morning Consult’s statisticians claim that their regressions are so accurate that no state has a MOE greater than 4% in the latest poll. I remain at least a bit skeptical.

The three candidates are bunched together, each receiving about the same amount of support (Sanders 20%, Warren 20% and Biden 19%) from registered Democrats and Democratic-leaning independent voters.

Since Monmouth’s June poll, Sanders and Warren have gained slightly (up 6 and 5 percentage points), while Biden has lost significant support (down 13 points).

Legally, I think he is technically correct. It would require him to declare a national emergency under 50 U.S. Code § 1701

However …

This really goes outside the spirit of the law, which was intended to deal with national emergencies created by outside threats to American security. Trump is taking it to a new level by saying, “I can create a national emergency, then declare it so, then use that situation to expand my authority.”

This is so completely unhinged that it will be interesting to see people try to defend it!

“He was 79, but his family says they wish he could live longer… but at least he lived long enough to see the Amazon catch fire. As for his remains, he asked to be cremated and have his ashes blown into a child’s lungs.”

Bill Maher

I have no good feelings for the Koch brothers, but I can’t bring myself to agree with this kind of thinking. It’s just revenge. I would celebrate if Koch’s death made the world better, but everything goes on as before, so I’m neither glad nor sad to see him go.

But that last joke is pretty funny.

I agree with the article that the purchase of Greenland would be a strategic coup for the USA, and I’m kinda surprised that the Danes and Greenlanders didn’t want to hear what Trump had to say.

I don’t think there’s anything wrong with Trump’s strategy. That deal could be a win-win-win for Greenland, Denmark and the USA. He just screwed up the deal on the human side, as usual, with his bungling, rants and insults.

In the position of the USA, the deal should be doable. Here’s what you offer: in addition to whatever amount is agreed by Denmark, the USA offers a quarter of a million dollars, tax-free to every single inhabitant of Greenland. That’s 14 billion dollars – chicken feed for the USA. Family of eight? You get two million dollars. You’re rich. No more spending your life on a boat in freezing temperatures, hoping for a good daily catch. You also get the status of US citizenship, which allows you to stay in Greenland or take your money to Des Moines or Orlando, if that suits you.

And if you don’t want to be an American, you can still take the money and move to Denmark, where a quarter of a million dollars will buy you a lot of pølser.

And not only that, but we really won’t disrupt your life very much if you choose to stay. Your prime minister just gets the new title of “governor,” and life goes on as before. We don’t care about your cod and salmon. We’re just interesting in building mines, naval stations, commercial ports, and research facilities. You can keep catching those cod, if you want, or you can sell your cod businesses to American entrepreneurs and head for South Beach. If you dread South Beach because you just can’t do without those freezing temperatures and fishing, you’ll find that a Minnesota winter is just as cold and wet and miserable as Greenland. And you may find Alaska very hospitable.

Let the Greenlanders vote on it. I’m pretty sure that offer will get a resounding “yes” from them. As for Denmark, they may talk big now, but if 95% of Greenlanders want the deal, Denmark will pretty much have to come to the table with an offer of some kind. At that point it’s just a matter of negotiation.

That’s the same Fed chairman that he picked for the job!

Another Tweet:

Our great American companies are hereby ordered to immediately start looking for an alternative to China.”

Donald J. Trump

The term “hereby order” is meaningless in this context.

I’ve mentioned before that I was almost The Chosen One. In the 1976 Chosen Guy pageant, I was selected as first runner up, and if anything had happened to the winner and he had not been able to serve out his term, I would have had to take over his Chosen responsibilities. Why did I lose? Well, I beat him in the swimsuit competition and we were about even in the evening wear, but he really kicked my ass in the talent competition. His talent was to demonstrate perfect spiritual purity, and control of all time and space, while I sang a song from Naughty Marietta.

I still think I would have beaten him if I hadn’t missed my high note.

“Along the way he managed to call the prime minister of Denmark – a key Nato ally – “nasty” for refusing to discuss selling him Greenland, and approvingly retweeted a description of himself as “King of Israel” and “the second coming of God”, adding: “Wow!”

Mr. Trump’s Wild Ride

Although I had seen him many times before, I still didn’t recognize him in the still picture from Maddow’s show. If I had seen just the picture, I would not have been able to come up with a name to match it! He’s the ultimate generic stock-photo, middle-aged white guy. If that whole governor thing doesn’t work out for him, he will have a lucrative career in Cialis commercials.

Although I should have used a mnemonic device to remember him, because he looks exactly like my Uncle Dick.

And quite a bit like Dave Garroway.

In you’re in the same boat, he’s the climate change guy.

I think he’s against it. Or for it. I forget which. Either way, he doesn’t think we’re doing enough about it, so he either wants us to stop using fossil fuels or use more of them.

Anyway, no need to memorize his face now.

The Onion had a funny take on this one:

‘Don’t Worry, I’ll Always Be Here To Fight Climate Change,’ Says Jay Inslee Before Ethereally Turning Into Majestic Oak

And Inslee had a witty response:

The Cooch opined that “That poem was referring back to people coming from Europe.”

He’s right. The version on the Statue is an expurgation. I remember the original words so clearly from my lit classes.

“Give me your poor, but not really poor like in Asia or Africa or Latin America, but kind of Norway-poor.

“Give me your tired, so they may rest their handsome blonde and ginger heads within our shores.”

“Give me your huddled masses, like those guys who play rugby or Aussie-rule football, if they have at least two major credit cards and a FICO score of at least 750.”

I’m kidding , but Cuccinelli also re-wrote the poem!

Well, at least he’s forthright about being a racist.

RCP lists the average polling score from the four most recent polls. In their summary, they list the top 20, and Hicks didn’t even make the list.

The hippie chick made the list. Even fargin’ DeBlasio made the list. But Hickenlooper still has to stand behind the velvet ropes.

The ol’ Looper may have dropped out of the Prez competition by the time you read this. As of about an hour ago as I type this, it has been reported Hickenlooper is preparing to drop out and run for the senate against Cory Gardner.