The stats: Coronavirus mapped and quantified.

ADDED 5/25: Sunday’s numbers:

The USA:

1. Sunday’s fatalities were fewer in number than last Sunday’s. That means 16 of the past 17 days have been below the same day on the previous week.

2. The USA experienced the lowest number of fatalities since March 29.

3. It was the first time since March 30 that the USA was NOT the country with the most fatalities. On that date in late March it was Italy; on Sunday it was Brazil. In between, the USA had a streak just short of DiMaggio’s – 54 in a row.

 

3 Weeks Ago 2 Weeks Ago Last Week This Week
Friday 1,897 1,687 1,595 1,293
Saturday 1,691 1,422 1,218 1,036
Sunday 1,153 750 865 617
Monday 1,324 1,008 1,003
Tuesday 2,350 1,630 1,552
Wednesday 2,528 1,772 1,461
Thursday 2,129 1,715 1,418

World:


In terms of daily fatalities per capita, the Three Blind Trumps took spots 1-2-6 on Saturday, but the USA improved as noted above and the UK did even better – its best day since March 23rd.

(Bolsonaro is called the Trump of Brazil and BoJo is called the British Trump.)

ADDED 5/24: A massive new study puts the kibosh on hydroxychloroquine. A study of 96,000 hospitalized coronavirus patients on six continents found that those who took the drug had a significantly higher risk of death compared with those who did not. People treated with hydroxychloroquine were also more likely to develop a type of irregular heart rhythm, or arrhythmia.

“It’s one thing not to have benefit, but this shows distinct harm. If there was ever hope for this drug, this is the death of it.”

I thought it was dishonest for Trump to be shilling for the drug when it seemed to have no benefit, but now that I know it actually kills people, he absolutely should tell his followers to use it. He should especially push this message in the purple states! If you really trust Trump, take mass quantities of this drug, the more the merrier!

ADDED 5/23: One study estimates that 24 states still have uncontrolled coronavirus spread. The article also cites other studies with results that are similar, but not identical.

ADDED 5/22: American billionaires got $434 billion richer during the pandemic

UPDATED 5/22: An MIT study, Will Coronavirus Pandemic Diminish by Summer?, had previously suggested that 90% of transmission occurs within a narrow temperature band (37 to 63 F) and a limited band of absolute humidity. The scientists did not claim that transmission ceases outside those temperature and humidity bands, but that the spread occurs more slowly. A newer study from Harvard also shows that summer weather is beneficial, but the study also stresses that weather can’t stop the spread without additional proactive measures from humans.

Our projections suggest warmer temperature, more humidity, and moderate outdoor UV exposure may offer a modest reduction in reproductive number; however, upcoming changes in weather alone will NOT be enough to fully contain the transmission of COVID-19.

ADDED 5/21: Sweden still has a long, hard road ahead, based on its stay-open strategy, because it has the highest current fatality rate in Europe, and only 7% of the residents of Stockholm have developed antibodies. Sweden’s plan has been an utter failure in every way. Not only have they emerged with that high fatality rate, but nothing was accomplished by that sacrifice. “Data released from the country’s central bank and a leading Swedish think tank show that the economy will be just as badly hit as its European neighbors, if not worse.”

ADDED 5/22: Another 2.4 million workers filed new unemployment claims last week. Since efforts to the contain coronavirus pandemic nine weeks ago, more than 38.6 million Americans have sought unemployment benefits. An analysis of the coronavirus pandemic’s effects on the labor market estimates that 42% of recent layoffs will result in permanent job loss.

ADDED 5/21: Black Americans are dying of Covid-19 at three times the rate of white people

ADDED 5/20: The big question comes up again – Can people be reinfected by COVID-19? Thirteen sailors on the Teddy Roosevelt, all considered to have recovered and all having tested negative at least twice, have exhibited symptoms again after returning to duty, and have tested positive. “Whether the afflicted sailors were reinfected or still had the virus after multiple negative tests remains under investigation.”

ADDED 5/19: New polling shows that 49 of the 50 governors have a better approval rating than Trump for their handling of the pandemic. The one exception: Kemp of Georgia. Republican governors dominate both the top and the bottom of the list, with all the Dems in the middle: six of the top seven are Republicans; seven of the bottom eight are Republicans.

ADDED 5/17: This can’t be good: “Hundreds of villages locked down in northeastern China after fresh coronavirus outbreak.” China had almost eliminated the stubborn disease.

ADDED 5/16: President Trump actually said this in opposition to “overrated” testing: “When you test, you find something is wrong with people. If we didn’t do any testing, we would have very few cases.”

ADDED 5/16: Remember when Trump asked, “What do you have to lose?” about hydroxychloroquine? The answer is “your life.” “Clinical trials, academic research and scientific analysis indicate that the danger of hydroxychloroquine is a significantly increased risk of death

ADDED 5/14: The number of fatalities caused by the spread of the coronavirus pandemic seems to be understated by about 20,000 to 30,000. “Many Covid-19 deaths were simply listed as some variant of ‘respiratory failure’ or ‘multisystem organ failure.’”

UPDATED 5/9: In a bizarre irony, hospitals are making mass lay-offs in the middle of the coronavirus pandemic. The institutions are suffering financially because they have had to eliminate all the most profitable parts of their business in order to treat corona victims. In all, 1.4 million health care workers lost their jobs in April, 135,000 of those in hospitals.

ADDED 4/29: New evidence reveals: “Coronavirus infections greatly outnumber confirmed covid-19 cases, potentially by a factor of 10 or more.” My guess it that it’s somewhere between 3-to-1 and 6-to-1. The USA has a ratio of about 18 cases per death. The proper ratio, based upon South Korea and other countries, is probably between 50 and 100 cases per death, indicating a fatality rate between 1% and 2%. That’s a wide range because the calculation is an oversimplification on my part. There are many factors going into the fatality rate, and it’s not necessarily fair to compare areas, but my guess is probably in the right ballpark.

ADDED 4/27: U.S. deaths soared in the early weeks of the pandemic, far exceeding the number attributed to covid-19

NEW 3/28: The data reveal that covid-19 is much more dangerous for men. The data are consistent from country to country: men make up 72% of the intensive care unit admissions in Spain, 73% in France, 75% in Norway, 71% in the UK. While researchers cannot yet determine how much of the gender disparity can be attributed to behavioral components, it seems clear that the significance of the gap across cultures means that there must be some biological explanation.

March 9:

 

March 4: A lot of people will have this, and it’s very mild. They will get better very rapidly. They don’t even see a doctor. They don’t even call a doctor.”

Feb 26: “We have thousands or hundreds of thousands of people that get better, just by, you know, even going to work. Some of them go to work, but they get better.”

Feb 26: We’re going to be pretty soon at only five people. And we could be at just one or two people over the next short period of time..”

Feb 26: We’re going down, not up. We’re going very substantially down, not up..”

Feb 26: The 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero.”

Feb 24:

 


The Dow was at 27,960 that day. One month later it was at 18,592.

Jan 24:

 

Jan 22: We have it totally under control. It’s one person coming in from China, and we have it under control. It’s going to be just fine.”

The stats: Coronavirus mapped and quantified.

ADDED 5/19: New polling shows that 49 of the 50 governors have a better approval rating than Trump for their handling of the pandemic. The one exception: Kemp of Georgia. How would that feel? “Well, governor, people think you’re the only leader in America dumber than Trump.” It’s interesting that Republican governors dominate both the top and the bottom of the list, with all the Dems in the middle: six of the top seven are Republicans; seven of the bottom eight are Republicans.

ADDED 5/19: Monday’s fatality numbers. Things are going well in the USA in general. Monday was below last Monday – only by five deaths, but down is better than up. It appears that we will soon see a day in which Brazil takes over the top spot, because the gap is quite narrow and the two countries are moving in opposite directions.

2 Weeks Ago Last Week This Week
Friday 1,897 1,687 1,595
Saturday 1,691 1,422 1,218
Sunday 1,153 750 865
Monday 1,324 1,008 1,003
Tuesday 2,350 1,630
Wednesday 2,528 1,772
Thursday 2,129 1,715


ADDED 5/17: This can’t be good: “Hundreds of villages locked down in northeastern China after fresh coronavirus outbreak.” China had almost eliminated the stubborn disease.

ADDED 5/16: President Trump actually said this in opposition to “overrated” testing: “When you test, you find something is wrong with people. If we didn’t do any testing, we would have very few cases.” Sometimes you hear what he says and you wonder, “Could he really be that stupid, or is he just playing to his base?” Of course we would have exactly the same number of cases at any given moment whether we test nobody or could miraculously test everybody at the same second. The difference is we just won’t realize how many there are if we test nobody. Trump’s statement is 100% accurate if you replace “have” with “know about.” The real point is that we will have more cases tomorrow if we don’t know about cases that exist today.

ADDED 5/16: Remember when Trump asked, “What do you have to lose?” about hydroxychloroquine? The answer is “your life.” “Clinical trials, academic research and scientific analysis indicate that the danger of hydroxychloroquine is a significantly increased risk of death

UPDATED 5/16: US weekly jobless claims again hover around 3, bringing the eight-week tally to about 36 million. That is more than 20% of the American work force. In the worst single week after the crash of 2008, claims reached just 665,000.

ADDED 5/14: The number of fatalities caused by the spread of the coronavirus pandemic seems to be understated by about 20,000 to 30,000. “Many Covid-19 deaths were simply listed as some variant of ‘respiratory failure’ or ‘multisystem organ failure.’”

ADDED 5/9: “Scientists explore a simple question with big implications: Can people be reinfected by COVID-19?”

UPDATED 5/9: In a bizarre irony, hospitals are making mass lay-offs in the middle of the coronavirus pandemic. The institutions are suffering financially because they have had to eliminate all the most profitable parts of their business in order to treat corona victims. In all, 1.4 million health care workers lost their jobs in April, 135,000 of those in hospitals.

ADDED 4/29: New evidence reveals: “Coronavirus infections greatly outnumber confirmed covid-19 cases, potentially by a factor of 10 or more.” My guess it that it’s somewhere between 3-to-1 and 6-to-1. The USA has a ratio of about 18 cases per death. The proper ratio, based upon South Korea and other countries, is probably between 50 and 100 cases per death, indicating a fatality rate between 1% and 2%. That’s a wide range because the calculation is an oversimplification on my part. There are many factors going into the fatality rate, and it’s not necessarily fair to compare areas, but my guess is probably in the right ballpark.

ADDED 4/27: U.S. deaths soared in the early weeks of the pandemic, far exceeding the number attributed to covid-19

NEW 3/28: The data reveal that covid-19 is much more dangerous for men. The data are consistent from country to country: men make up 72% of the intensive care unit admissions in Spain, 73% in France, 75% in Norway, 71% in the UK. While researchers cannot yet determine how much of the gender disparity can be attributed to behavioral components, it seems clear that the significance of the gap across cultures means that there must be some biological explanation.

NEW 3/27: An MIT study, Will Coronavirus Pandemic Diminish by Summer?, suggests that 90% of transmission occurs within a narrow temperature band (37 to 63 F) and a limited band of absolute humidity. The scientists do not claim that transmission ceases outside those temperature and humidity bands, but that the spread occurs more slowly. If that holds, the Asian monsoon season, as well as the North American summer, should work against the disease.

March 9:

March 4: A lot of people will have this, and it’s very mild. They will get better very rapidly. They don’t even see a doctor. They don’t even call a doctor.”

Feb 26: “We have thousands or hundreds of thousands of people that get better, just by, you know, even going to work. Some of them go to work, but they get better.”

Feb 26: We’re going to be pretty soon at only five people. And we could be at just one or two people over the next short period of time..”

Feb 26: We’re going down, not up. We’re going very substantially down, not up..”

Feb 26: The 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero.”

Feb 24:

 


The Dow was at 27,960 that day. One month later it was at 18,592.

Jan 24:

 

Jan 22: We have it totally under control. It’s one person coming in from China, and we have it under control. It’s going to be just fine.”

Florida beaches are OPEN (with rules and limitations)

Residents can go for a walk, swim, surf, run or fish, as long as they are adhering to social distancing guidelines. However, sunbathing, camping overnight and gatherings of more than 10 people will be banned.

UPDATE: they corrected the story to read 10 people, not 50! Either the Daily Mail made a typo or Florida backed down. I don’t know which.

————

Texas to begin softening COVID-19 restrictions next week

State parks in Texas will be open starting Monday. One of the governor’s executive orders that he signed on Friday allows the state’s retailers to start using a temporary “Retail-To-Go” starting next Friday.

What a shit-show:

The stats: Coronavirus mapped and quantified.

ADDED 4/9: The USA’s # of cases held flat with the previous day (actually slightly down to 1,940 from 1,971).

The USA can be fairly compared to the “Big 5” European corona countries (France, Italy, Spain, Germany, UK), which together have a population of 323.4 million, which is almost identical to the population of the USA (327.2).

America has 435,000 corona cases, versus 575,000 for the Big 5
America has 15,000 deaths, versus 53,000 for the Big 5.
America has conducted 2.2 million tests, versus approximately 3.4 million for the Big 5.
America reported more new cases yesterday: 32,000-25,000
The Big 5 reported more new deaths yesterday: 3,100-2,000

The Big 5’s test numbers are estimated because of Spain. Worldometers has the up-to-date numbers for The UK, Germany and Italy. Worldometers has the wrong number for France, but the correct number can be calculated. France reports that 27% of their tests have been positive. Given their number of positives, they must have conducted about 418,000 tests. Nobody seems to know how many people Spain has tested, so my estimate of 600,000 for Spain is a total guess, based on assuming 25% positive tests, which is the average of France (27%) and the UK (22%).

US testing is still in the second tier. Germany has tested 15 people per 1000, Italy 13. The USA and France are about half that level. The UK lags far behind at 4 per 1000. Spain, as noted, is unknown.

UPDATED 4/9: BoJo, covid positive, still in intensive care, but now improving.

ADDED 4/8: Key coronavirus model revised downward, now predicts 60K deaths in US by August. The previous prediction from the same model was 81,000. You can find the data for your own state here. Click on “The United States of America” in green and white, and it will produce a drop-down menu of countries and states.

NOTE: this model assumes full social distancing in all 50 states until May 31, even though many states will be down to 0-2 deaths per day by May 1. I fear that many governors, seeing the numbers drop so dramatically, will rescind their stay-in-place orders, and that would create a new bump in the curve. I hope the forecasters are right in predicting a steady decline in fatalities after April 12th. That suggests we are nearly over the hump.

ADDED 4/7: This can’t be good. 51 recovered coronavirus patients test positive again in South Korea. For now, the KCDC’s director-general, Jeong Eun-kyeong, believes it is likely the infection was re-activated after remaining dormant in the patients, as opposed to them being reinfected. Either way, it strengthens fears that the contagion remains a hidden danger even after it appears to have gone — with whistleblowing Chinese doctors previously warning it is even deadlier the second time.

ADDED 4/3: The Unemployment Rate Is Probably Around 13 Percent. It’s almost certainly at its highest level since the Great Depression.”

NEW 3/28: The data are beginning to reveal that covid-19 is much more dangerous for men. The data are consistent from country to country: men make up 72% of the intensive care unit admissions in Spain, 73% in France, 75% in Norway, 71% in the UK. While researchers cannot yet determine how much of the gender disparity can be attributed to behavioral components, it seems clear that the significance of the gap across cultures means that there must be some biological explanation.

NEW 3/28: Why is Germany’s death rate so much lower than everyone else’s? Nobody is certain. There are several possible reasons: (1) aggressive testing has identified many mild cases; (2) the average age of those infected is low – for example, it’s 46 in Germany, 63 in Italy; (3) they have a good healthcare system and an aggressive government; (4) the fatality numbers are not-apples-to-apples because other countries are routinely doing post-mortem tests on those who were not tested in life, while Germany is not. (When a corpse is tested positive, it adds to the infected total, as well as the total of those who had covid-19 and died – in effect weighing in a 100% death rate for that group.)

An MIT study, Will Coronavirus Pandemic Diminish by Summer?, suggests that 90% of transmission occurs within a narrow temperature band (37 to 63 F) and absolute humidity band. The scientists do not claim that transmission ceases outside those temperature and humidity bands, but that the spread occurs more slowly. If that holds, the Asian monsoon season, as well as the North American summer, should work against the disease.

Feb 26: “We have thousands or hundreds of thousands of people that get better, just by, you know, even going to work. Some of them go to work, but they get better.”

Feb 26: We’re going to be pretty soon at only five people. And we could be at just one or two people over the next short period of time..”

Feb 26: We’re going down, not up. We’re going very substantially down, not up..”

Feb 26: The 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero.”

Feb 24:

 


The Dow was at 27,960 that day. One month later it was at 18,592.

Wrong: Coronavirus is bad, and the extent of the problem can be attributed to America’s poor leadership


Right: Coronavirus is actually good


“If you happen to utter the word “coronavirus” while waiting, say, for the bus in the white-marbled capital Ashgabat, there’s a good chance you’ll be arrested. Plainclothes police officers are also arresting people who wear face masks.”

The Turkmen government has been run since 2006 by “the flamboyant dentist-rapper strongman Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov.”

Heckuva job, Gurby!

SIDEBAR: I’m pretty sure than I’ve never typed “dentist-rapper-strongman” before. That’s almost as rare as my position as “philosopher prince / masked luchador” (emeritus).

FOLLOW-UP: He was wrong. The police got him before the Rapture. To be fair, his arrest may not stop him from holding services again next Sunday. Stay tuned.

The original story:

“This is the clear and present danger … people continuing to congregate — squeezing into close quarters like sardines — and that’s exactly what happened Sunday at a Florida Church. The River Church in Tampa was packed to the gills with worshipers who clearly were looking for hope. Pastor Rodney Howard-Browne, who presides over the megachurch and has been reportedly defiant over social distancing, has claimed he’ll cure coronavirus just the way he did with Zika.”

So FAR.

Trump loves a challenge. I’m willing to bet he can top it. If he gets four more years, I can just about guarantee it.

The US response will be studied for generations as a textbook example of a disastrous, failed effort. What’s happened in Washington has been a fiasco of incredible proportions.”

The stats: Coronavirus mapped and quantified

NEW 3/29: President Trump extends social distancing guidance until end of April

NEW 3/29: When will the virus peak in your area, and what are your best and worst case scenarios? Computer simulations. The national peak is supposed to occur approximately April 14-18, just after Easter, but some areas are expected to be hit hard later in the year. Wisconsin, for example, is expected to peak more than a month later.

NEW 3/28: The data are beginning to reveal that covid-19 is much more dangerous for men. The data are consistent from country to country: men make up 72% of the intensive care unit admissions in Spain, 73% in France, 75% in Norway, 71% in the UK. While researchers cannot yet determine how much of the gender disparity can be attributed to behavioral components, it seems clear that the significance of the gap across cultures means that there must be some biological explanation.

NEW 3/28: Why is Germany’s death rate so much lower than everyone else’s? Nobody is certain. There are several possible reasons: (1) aggressive testing has identified many mild cases; (2) the average age of those infected is low – for example, it’s 46 in Germany, 63 in Italy; (3) they have a good healthcare system and an aggressive government; (4) the fatality numbers are not-apples-to-apples because other countries are routinely doing post-mortem tests on those who were not tested in life, while Germany is not. (When a corpse is tested positive, it adds to the infected total, as well as the total of those who had covid-19 and died – in effect weighing in a 100% death rate for that group.)

Scoop’s note: The fatality numbers in general don’t mean what you think they do. The total represents those who were identified with active coronavirus, then died without recovering. It is not specifically the number determined by a medical examiner to have died from the disease. To make a silly example, if an active case with very mild symptoms died in an automobile accident, they would appear in the coronavirus death column, even though the disease was not the cause of death. The way the statistics are kept, there are only three types of cases: active, recovered, or died. There are not separate columns for “died of corona” and “died of an unrelated cause while an active case.” I presume that the impact of that distinction is minimal, but I’m not certain of that.

The Dow’s rollercoaster continued – down 900 Friday.

Jobless claims hit a record 3.3 million

The best way to spend your $1,200 stimulus check, according to financial advisers.” My choices, hookers and bourbon, were conspicuously absent.

An MIT study, Will Coronavirus Pandemic Diminish by Summer?, suggests that 90% of transmission occurs within a narrow temperature band (37 to 63 F) and absolute humidity band. The scientists do not claim that transmission ceases outside those temperature and humidity bands, but that the spread occurs more slowly. If that holds, the Asian monsoon season, as well as the North American summer, should work against the disease.

A silver lining? Pollution levels are falling rapidly!

Prince Chuck and BoJo have tested positive for Coronavirus and Greta Thunberg seems to be a coronavirus victim. They join Harvey Weinstein, Senator Rand Paul, Andy Cohen , two members of the House, NBA superstar Kevin Durant, Idris Elba and Tom Hanks among the public figures with the virus. Olga Kurylenko has recovered.

Cohen also pressed Fauci on Trump making statements that don’t “comport with facts,” calling attention to the president’s recent misleading suggestion that China could have revealed details of the outbreak “three or four months” earlier.

“I know, but what do you want me to do?,” Fauci responded. “I mean, seriously, Jon, let’s get real, what do you want me to do?

In a related story: Trump is losing his patience with Fauci. Why, there’s a shock! I wonder what the over/under date is for Trump replacing Fauci with some political ignoramus. Is Roy Moore available? Sheriff Joe? A newly-pardoned Roger Stone?

The Dow dropped another grand on Friday. It’s now about 550 points lower than it was on the day before Trump’s inauguration.

The Trump administration is asking state officials to hold off releasing unemployment numbers. As Trump likes to say, “I like the numbers being where they are.”

Mortgage Lenders Consider Plan to Suspend Payments Amid Crisis. One company, Bank of America, is already committed, and the Fed is taking action on Freddie and Fannie mortgages to suspend payments for those laid off during the crisis.

More light at the end of the tunnel: Although “there are no confirmed effective treatments specifically for COVID-19 to date,” a very small-scale French test (30 patients) has produced excellent results from a combination of hydroxycholoroquine and azithromycin. The Chinese are also reporting excellent results from the same combination. Although this combination has not been proven safe and effective through large scale clinical trials, it at least offers us a glimmer of hope.

BUT NOTE


Italy and Spain record their highest single-day death tolls

Remember those dolphins in Venice? Maybe not. Definitely not. (I was among those conned by this one.)

The State Department has warned Americans abroad to either come now or plan to say out of the country indefinitely. And of course they are also advising Americans now in the country not to leave because coming back may not be possible.

Light at the end of the tunnel (for the Northern Hemisphere). New study says ‘high temperature and high relative humidity significantly reduce’ spread of COVID-19. “An increase of just one degree Celsius and 1% relative humidity increase substantially lower the virus’s transmission, according to the data analyzed by the researchers.”

More light at the end of the tunnel? China reports zero new domestic virus cases for the first time!

Walmart to give hourly workers cash bonuses, seeks 150,000 new employees

This is how long coronavirus survives airborne — and on cardboard, plastic and steel, according to a peer-reviewed study

South Korea seemed to have the virus under control. How did they do it? Unfortunately, even they are experiencing a roller coaster ride, with numbers of new cases starting to creep up after many days of decline.

Trump Defends Using ‘Chinese Virus’ Label, Ignoring Growing Criticism.

WrestleMania 36 WILL happen on April 5, but without fans., and it will last two nights.

Studio Movies in Theaters Will Be Offered for In-Home Rental. “Universal Pictures said on Monday that it would no longer give theaters an exclusive period of roughly 90 days to play new movies, a break with longstanding Hollywood practice that could have wide-ranging reverberations. At least some competing studios are likely to follow.”

With brick-and-mortar stores closing, Amazon will hire 100,000 new workers.. The only aggressive employers now are going to be places like Amazon, Supermarketers, Netflix and the toilet paper manufacturers.

This can’t be good: Man who recovered from covid-19 has become re-infected. At this moment it is not possible to determine whether the virus re-appeared without additional exposure or if he was exposed a second time.

I brought this up from another thread:

“GOP Senator Upbeat! Coronavirus May Kill ‘No More Than 3.4 Percent of Our Population’

Such a compassionate man.

Well, that’s a relief. It will only kill about twice as many people (11 million) as the Holocaust (6 million)! No big deal.

  • As the original commenter pointed out, 3.4% of our population would be about eight times as many people as have died in all America’s wars added together. 3.4% is more than ten million people. About 600,000 or 700,000 Americans died as a result of the Civil War, and about 400,000 Americans died in the WW2 struggle.
  • 3.4% is even more than the PERCENTAGE of Americans who died in the Civil War.
  • And those Civil War and WW2 casualties were spread out over some four years.

(The 1918 flu pandemic killed approximately as many Americans as the Civil War.)