On the pre-corona trajectory, this was not supposed to happen for about 11 years!
Category: Scary shit
Here’s a better sense of how the Milwaukee lines look, at just 730. Again most people wearing masks, trying to space pic.twitter.com/RNV093Nh4a
— Steadman™ (@AsteadWesley) April 7, 2020
What a shit-show:
- Milwaukee normally has 180 polling places. Only five are open.
- People who requested absentee ballots didn’t get them, and they must be postmarked by today.
"You are incredibly safe to go out" Republican @SpeakerVos tells his constituents, in full gown, gloves and mask. pic.twitter.com/c3wNVhWxew
— Justin (@JustinAHorwitz) April 7, 2020
The stats: Coronavirus mapped and quantified.
- world outbreak monitored
- world outbreak mapped
- world testing tracked
- USA outbreak mapped
- USA testing tracked daily
ADDED 4/9: The USA’s # of cases held flat with the previous day (actually slightly down to 1,940 from 1,971).
The USA can be fairly compared to the “Big 5” European corona countries (France, Italy, Spain, Germany, UK), which together have a population of 323.4 million, which is almost identical to the population of the USA (327.2).
America has 435,000 corona cases, versus 575,000 for the Big 5
America has 15,000 deaths, versus 53,000 for the Big 5.
America has conducted 2.2 million tests, versus approximately 3.4 million for the Big 5.
America reported more new cases yesterday: 32,000-25,000
The Big 5 reported more new deaths yesterday: 3,100-2,000
The Big 5’s test numbers are estimated because of Spain. Worldometers has the up-to-date numbers for The UK, Germany and Italy. Worldometers has the wrong number for France, but the correct number can be calculated. France reports that 27% of their tests have been positive. Given their number of positives, they must have conducted about 418,000 tests. Nobody seems to know how many people Spain has tested, so my estimate of 600,000 for Spain is a total guess, based on assuming 25% positive tests, which is the average of France (27%) and the UK (22%).
US testing is still in the second tier. Germany has tested 15 people per 1000, Italy 13. The USA and France are about half that level. The UK lags far behind at 4 per 1000. Spain, as noted, is unknown.
UPDATED 4/9: BoJo, covid positive, still in intensive care, but now improving.
ADDED 4/8: Key coronavirus model revised downward, now predicts 60K deaths in US by August. The previous prediction from the same model was 81,000. You can find the data for your own state here. Click on “The United States of America” in green and white, and it will produce a drop-down menu of countries and states.
NOTE: this model assumes full social distancing in all 50 states until May 31, even though many states will be down to 0-2 deaths per day by May 1. I fear that many governors, seeing the numbers drop so dramatically, will rescind their stay-in-place orders, and that would create a new bump in the curve. I hope the forecasters are right in predicting a steady decline in fatalities after April 12th. That suggests we are nearly over the hump.
ADDED 4/7: This can’t be good. 51 recovered coronavirus patients test positive again in South Korea. For now, the KCDC’s director-general, Jeong Eun-kyeong, believes it is likely the infection was re-activated after remaining dormant in the patients, as opposed to them being reinfected. Either way, it strengthens fears that the contagion remains a hidden danger even after it appears to have gone — with whistleblowing Chinese doctors previously warning it is even deadlier the second time.
ADDED 4/3: “The Unemployment Rate Is Probably Around 13 Percent. It’s almost certainly at its highest level since the Great Depression.”
NEW 3/28: The data are beginning to reveal that covid-19 is much more dangerous for men. The data are consistent from country to country: men make up 72% of the intensive care unit admissions in Spain, 73% in France, 75% in Norway, 71% in the UK. While researchers cannot yet determine how much of the gender disparity can be attributed to behavioral components, it seems clear that the significance of the gap across cultures means that there must be some biological explanation.
NEW 3/28: Why is Germany’s death rate so much lower than everyone else’s? Nobody is certain. There are several possible reasons: (1) aggressive testing has identified many mild cases; (2) the average age of those infected is low – for example, it’s 46 in Germany, 63 in Italy; (3) they have a good healthcare system and an aggressive government; (4) the fatality numbers are not-apples-to-apples because other countries are routinely doing post-mortem tests on those who were not tested in life, while Germany is not. (When a corpse is tested positive, it adds to the infected total, as well as the total of those who had covid-19 and died – in effect weighing in a 100% death rate for that group.)
An MIT study, Will Coronavirus Pandemic Diminish by Summer?, suggests that 90% of transmission occurs within a narrow temperature band (37 to 63 F) and absolute humidity band. The scientists do not claim that transmission ceases outside those temperature and humidity bands, but that the spread occurs more slowly. If that holds, the Asian monsoon season, as well as the North American summer, should work against the disease.
Feb 26: “We have thousands or hundreds of thousands of people that get better, just by, you know, even going to work. Some of them go to work, but they get better.”
Feb 26: “We’re going down, not up. We’re going very substantially down, not up..”
Feb 26: “The 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero.”
Feb 24:
The Coronavirus is very much under control in the USA. We are in contact with everyone and all relevant countries. CDC & World Health have been working hard and very smart. Stock Market starting to look very good to me!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) February 24, 2020
The Dow was at 27,960 that day. One month later it was at 18,592.
Wrong: Coronavirus is bad, and the extent of the problem can be attributed to America’s poor leadership
How to ensure you don't get follow-up questions on Fox, apparently. pic.twitter.com/nOUqw4ZVhO
— Ben Smith (@benyt) April 2, 2020
Right: Coronavirus is actually good
Secretary Wilbur Ross says coronavirus will be good for [checks notes] American jobs: "I think it will help to accelerate the return of jobs to North America." pic.twitter.com/Y4SbDIcTi4
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) January 30, 2020
“If you happen to utter the word “coronavirus” while waiting, say, for the bus in the white-marbled capital Ashgabat, there’s a good chance you’ll be arrested. Plainclothes police officers are also arresting people who wear face masks.”
The Turkmen government has been run since 2006 by “the flamboyant dentist-rapper strongman Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov.”
Heckuva job, Gurby!
SIDEBAR: I’m pretty sure than I’ve never typed “dentist-rapper-strongman” before. That’s almost as rare as my position as “philosopher prince / masked luchador” (emeritus).
FOLLOW-UP: He was wrong. The police got him before the Rapture. To be fair, his arrest may not stop him from holding services again next Sunday. Stay tuned.
The original story:
“This is the clear and present danger … people continuing to congregate — squeezing into close quarters like sardines — and that’s exactly what happened Sunday at a Florida Church. The River Church in Tampa was packed to the gills with worshipers who clearly were looking for hope. Pastor Rodney Howard-Browne, who presides over the megachurch and has been reportedly defiant over social distancing, has claimed he’ll cure coronavirus just the way he did with Zika.”
So FAR.
Trump loves a challenge. I’m willing to bet he can top it. If he gets four more years, I can just about guarantee it.
“The US response will be studied for generations as a textbook example of a disastrous, failed effort. What’s happened in Washington has been a fiasco of incredible proportions.”
“I say Mike, don’t call the governor of Washington, you’re wasting your time with him. Don’t call the woman in Michigan. If they don’t treat you right, I don’t call”
“Rhode Island will knock on doors and stop cars to find New Yorkers to slow the spread of coronavirus”
That CNN headline (above, within quotation marks) is at least somewhat misleading. They are not looking for New Yorkers, but rather for anyone who has recently been to New York.
“Listen up, dipshits, and sensible people. I might not have the best bedside manor. I might not put you at ease like the Governor does, but I don’t care. You need to realize that this is a serious ordeal. In fact, it’s a big fucking deal. Stay at home. Treat this seriously. If you don’t, then screw you (fuck you is what I want to say, but I can’t).”
Cohen also pressed Fauci on Trump making statements that don’t “comport with facts,” calling attention to the president’s recent misleading suggestion that China could have revealed details of the outbreak “three or four months” earlier.
“I know, but what do you want me to do?,” Fauci responded. “I mean, seriously, Jon, let’s get real, what do you want me to do?”
In a related story: Trump is losing his patience with Fauci. Why, there’s a shock! I wonder what the over/under date is for Trump replacing Fauci with some political ignoramus. Is Roy Moore available? Sheriff Joe? A newly-pardoned Roger Stone?
“Their present emptiness, a public health necessity, can conjure up dystopia, not progress, but, promisingly, it also suggests that, by heeding the experts and staying apart, we have not yet lost the capacity to come together for the common good.”
Not to mention the day life
Q: Could #ibuprofen worsen disease for people with #COVID19?
A: Based on currently available information, WHO does not recommend against the use of of ibuprofen. pic.twitter.com/n39DFt2amF
— World Health Organization (WHO) (@WHO) March 18, 2020
The Dow dropped another grand on Friday. It’s now about 550 points lower than it was on the day before Trump’s inauguration.
The Trump administration is asking state officials to hold off releasing unemployment numbers. As Trump likes to say, “I like the numbers being where they are.”
Mortgage Lenders Consider Plan to Suspend Payments Amid Crisis. One company, Bank of America, is already committed, and the Fed is taking action on Freddie and Fannie mortgages to suspend payments for those laid off during the crisis.
More light at the end of the tunnel: Although “there are no confirmed effective treatments specifically for COVID-19 to date,” a very small-scale French test (30 patients) has produced excellent results from a combination of hydroxycholoroquine and azithromycin. The Chinese are also reporting excellent results from the same combination. Although this combination has not been proven safe and effective through large scale clinical trials, it at least offers us a glimmer of hope.
BUT NOTE
Please don't take hydroxychloroquine (Plaquenil) plus Azithromycin for #COVID19 UNLESS your doctor prescribes it. Both drugs affect the QT interval of your heart and can lead to arrhythmias and sudden death, especially if you are taking other meds or have a heart condition.
— Dr. Edsel Salvana (@EdselSalvana) March 21, 2020
Italy and Spain record their highest single-day death tolls
Remember those dolphins in Venice? Maybe not. Definitely not. (I was among those conned by this one.)
The State Department has warned Americans abroad to either come now or plan to say out of the country indefinitely. And of course they are also advising Americans now in the country not to leave because coming back may not be possible.
Light at the end of the tunnel (for the Northern Hemisphere). New study says ‘high temperature and high relative humidity significantly reduce’ spread of COVID-19. “An increase of just one degree Celsius and 1% relative humidity increase substantially lower the virus’s transmission, according to the data analyzed by the researchers.”
More light at the end of the tunnel? China reports zero new domestic virus cases for the first time!
Walmart to give hourly workers cash bonuses, seeks 150,000 new employees
This is how long coronavirus survives airborne — and on cardboard, plastic and steel, according to a peer-reviewed study
South Korea seemed to have the virus under control. How did they do it? Unfortunately, even they are experiencing a roller coaster ride, with numbers of new cases starting to creep up after many days of decline.
Trump Defends Using ‘Chinese Virus’ Label, Ignoring Growing Criticism.
WrestleMania 36 WILL happen on April 5, but without fans., and it will last two nights.
Studio Movies in Theaters Will Be Offered for In-Home Rental. “Universal Pictures said on Monday that it would no longer give theaters an exclusive period of roughly 90 days to play new movies, a break with longstanding Hollywood practice that could have wide-ranging reverberations. At least some competing studios are likely to follow.”
With brick-and-mortar stores closing, Amazon will hire 100,000 new workers.. The only aggressive employers now are going to be places like Amazon, Supermarketers, Netflix and the toilet paper manufacturers.
This can’t be good: Man who recovered from covid-19 has become re-infected. At this moment it is not possible to determine whether the virus re-appeared without additional exposure or if he was exposed a second time.
