This week’s scoreboard

For the second time this year, the Jets have lost to a previously winless team. First they dropped one to the Dolphins, but even more impressively, this week’s humiliation involved a convincing thrashing by the 0-11 Bengals. The 2019 Jets became the first team in NFL history to lose to two teams that entered a game 0-7 or worse.

Meanwhile, in serious football competition, the Patriots lost, and the Ravens won a hard-fought game over the 49ers in what could be a Super Bowl preview. Since their humiliating loss to the Browns in late September, the Ravens have gone 8-0, including defeats of the Patriots, Niners and Seahawks, plus total curb-stompings of the Texans and Rams.

It’s kind of interesting that nearly every significant conference is expected to produce a lopsided conference title game.

The most dramatic example is that Clemson is favored by 28 over Virginia. (First meeting this year.)

THE Ohio State University is favored by 17 over Wisconsin. (Ohio State won their first match-up by 31.)

LSU is favored by 7 over Georgia. (They have not met this year.)

Oklahoma is favored by 9 over Baylor. (Oklahoma won by three earlier in the year, after Baylor blew a 25-point lead.)

The narrowest odds are in the Pac-10, where Utah is favored by 5 over Oregon in the only match-up of the season between those two teams.

In the “who cares” conference, Memphis is favored by 11 over Cincinnati, which makes sense since the same two teams just played yesterday and Memphis won by 10! (The home field edge is not a factor since both games are in Memphis.) You can’t fault Cincinnati for cowardice in their scheduling. Their only other loss this year occurred because they took on THE OSU earlier in the year. Of course, dragons usually beat saints and goliaths usually beat undersized shepherds. Cincinnati’s scheduling was brave, but foolhardy. They were crushed 42-0 in front of an SRO crowd of 104,000 in Columbus.

This week’s scoreboard

Well, the Alabama/Georgia debate is finished. Alabama lost to Auburn by surrendering 48 points, so for the first time since time immemorial, Alabama is not in the national title picture. They will not be in the top four at the end of the year, and they will not play in their conference championship game, which will pit Georgia against LSU. The interesting question now becomes, “Which team will get the #4 slot if LSU beats Georgia in that conference finale, as expected?” Is it possible that Utah will make the Final Four? Who could have guessed that at the beginning of the season?

In another big match-up Saturday, Wisconsin had no problem disposing of Minnesota. That win put the Badgers in the Big Ten conference championship game, but they are not expected to have much of a chance. THE Ohio State University has blown away everyone in the conference this year, including Wisconsin in their previous meeting (38-7). The Buckeyes are averaging 50 points per game.

For reasons not immediately apparent, the committee reversed the positions of LSU and THE OSU. Ohio State is now #1.

The two polls still place LSU in the catbird’s seat.

Sagarin’s computer system agrees with the committee that OSU is #1. In fact, it ranks LSU fourth.

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Weird computer stat o’ the day: Sagarin places TCU in the top 30 despite their 5-6 record. According to that system, TCU has played the second most difficult schedule in the country.

Scoreboard

In battles among elite teams, the only major development this week was that the 49ers made mincemeat out of the Pack. They scored 37 themselves while holding Green Bay to 81 net passing yards and sacking Aaron Rodgers five times! The Packers did manage one second-half TD, but apart from that were unable to get within field goal distance.

It was an embarrassing week for the Steelers, who barely managed to hold off the 0-11 Bengals.

Scoreboard

The only major development this week was a loss by #6 Oregon.

In the battle for the all-important #4 spot, there was nothing conclusive. Alabama slaughtered a weak team while Georgia eked out a win over a tough A&M squad.

Sagarin calls the top four like this:

Ohio State
Clemson
Alabama
LSU

Those four teams are running away from the pack, with Georgia quite a bit behind. Sagarin’s computer likes Oklahoma more than the voters do. His method scores the Sooners about even with Georgia in the fight for #5.

  • Clemson seems to be in the playoff for sure. They face no significant challenge in the remainder of the year. They seem like a lock for the #3 seed. (Or better, if LSU or THE OSU falters.)
  • Ohio State still has a tough row to hoe. They still have to face Michigan, then either Minnesota or Wisconsin. THE OSU does, however, seem to be much better than any of those teams, so they will go into the playoff as the #1 or #2 seed if they run the table.

So at this point it looks like Clemson, Ohio State and two SEC teams. But which two? Remember that either Georgia or LSU will lose in the season’s final week, since they’ll go head-to-head in the SEC championship. A Georgia loss will definitely knock them out of the playoff and assure LSU a #1 or #2 seed, but a Georgia win will create chaos and controversy by leaving three SEC teams with approximately an equal claim to a playoff spot.

Scoreboard

No big surprises this week.

The Jets must have one of the easiest schedules in NFL history. On the past three Sundays, they have played the Dolphins (2-8), Giants (2-8) and Redskins (1-9). They have a real game next week against the Raiders, then come right back with back-to-back weeks against the mighty 0-10 Bengals, and then the Dolphins again. In one six-week stretch, they will play the four weakest teams in the league, and then they get to play one of them again! Despite that schedule, the Jets are only 3-7.

On the other side of that scheduling bonanza is the difficult road ahead for the 9-1 49ers. Their next three games are against the Packers, Ravens and Saints, all of whom are 8-2, and they still have to play their re-matches against the 8-2 Seahawks and 6-4 Rams. If they Niners end up as the #1 seed in the NFC, they will have earned it.

Depressing stat o’ the week: Carolina’s Kyle Allen threw nineteen incomplete passes, tossed away four interceptions and got sacked five times. Not surprisingly, the Panthers lost 29-3 to a Falcons team that came into the game 2-7. I’m thinkin’ maybe Kaepernick might not be a bad choice for Carolina. Just sayin’.

The news of the week:

Both Baylor and Minnesota lost, and consequently fell from any consideration for the playoff pool.

The Baylor Bears led Oklahoma 31-10 at halftime, but could not seal the deal.

Minnesota is probably not even a betting favorite to make the Big 10 championship game. They are 6-1 in the conference and Wisconsin is 5-2, but they still must play one another, so a Wisconsin win would leave them tied. If they finish with identical conference records, Wisconsin would advance based on the head-to-head. Neither one is expected to give THE Ohio State University much of a battle in that conference final. (THE OSU crushed Wisconsin earlier this year.)

Alabama’s quarterback sustained a season-ending injury.

Wisconsin’s Jonathan Taylor continues to re-write the record books for rushing yardage.

As you sports fans know, the only truly important thing on the route to a national championship is to finish among the top four in the committee rankings. It makes little difference, therefore, whether a team is #1 or #2, but it is absolutely critical whether they are #4 or #5.

At this point, the writers and coaches are saying that Alabama is #4, but the committee awards that crucial spot to Georgia.

That will probably come out in the wash. If Georgia runs the table, the Bulldogs will play in the SEC championship as a one-loss team. If they win that game, they will clearly stay in the playoff picture because that hypothetical win would presumably come against the nation’s #1 team! If they lose, it will be their second loss and will accordingly drop them from the top four. Frankly, they will have their hands full running the table. They still must go on the road to beat #12 Auburn, and then must handle a tough Aggie squad.

And it should be remembered that Minnesota and Baylor are still lurking on the charts with undefeated records, awaiting opportunities to shine, or for the leaders to falter.

He got 29 of the 30 possible votes.

Analytics have really changed baseball. DeGrom had 21 wins – for the two Cy Young seasons added together! Of course, it’s not his fault that the Mets suck. He did have the highest WAR of any NL pitcher.

Verlander and Cole were almost tied for the AL award, with Verlander winning 171-159. That vote total very accurately reflected the similarity of their seasons. Verlander, like DeGrom, led his league in pitching WAR.

Wait! The University of Evansville is a real thing? I thought it was one of those fake schools they make up for movies, like Faber College. (“Knowledge is Good.”)

To add to the shock value, Kentucky lost that game at home!

Evansville was a 25-point underdog, making the result the third-largest upset in the past 15 seasons.

Some kinda weird stuff happened this week. Call it “any given Sunday.”

  • The Dolphins won on the road
  • The Jets beat the Giants in the battle of really crappy NY teams.
  • The Saints, Chiefs and Rams all lost

Not everything was surprising. The Bengals were as god-awful as ever against the Ravens, and the Pack won.

Two elite teams did not play. The Pats have a bye week and the Niners play Monday Night.

Depressing stat of the week: Patrick Mahomes passed for 446 yards with three TDs and no picks – and lost!

The official committee rankings come out later in the week, but here’s how the writers and coaches see it.

The identities of the top three are obvious, if not their precise order.

ESPN Analytics strongly supported giving the top seed to LSU: “LSU ranks first in Strength of Record and it isn’t close. An average top-25 team would have had just a 1% chance to be undefeated thus far against LSU’s schedule. Meanwhile that seem team would have had a 16% chance to go undefeated vs. Ohio State’s schedule, the next best. Among the undefeateds, Clemson had it easiest: an average top 25 team would have had a 29% chance to be 10-0 at this point against the Tigers’ schedule.”

Sagarin’s analytics completely disagree with LSU’s primacy. He places Ohio State first by a mile. His ratings show that Ohio State would be favored over LSU by nine points on neutral turf and nearly two touchdowns if they played in Columbus. Sagarin does agree, however, that LSU has played the toughest schedule of all the undefeated teams, with nobody else very close, so his superior ranking of Ohio State must be based on margin of victory.

At the end of the day, it doesn’t really matter which team is rated #1 in the regular season, as long as the potential claimants are all in the top four, allowing them to face off head-to-head against the others.

In answer to the question I posed yesterday, “who will be #4?”, both polls responded “Alabama.” I guess it’s fair to say the Tide is the top one-loss team, given that the team’s only loss was to the #1 team by less than a TD. Sagarin completely agrees. In fact, his computer rankings still place Alabama above Clemson! He runs three different computer models, then consolidates them into his final rating, and all three base models place the same four teams in the top four. The other side of the argument is that ‘Bama probably will not be in the SEC championship game which, absent any upsets, will probably pit LSU against Georgia! If Alabama makes the top four, they will still have a chance at the national championship, despite finishing third in their own conference!

Major move of the week: the undefeated Minnesota Gophers rose six spots after their defeat of Penn State.

Top 25 report, week 11.

The important thing at the end of the year is to be in the top four …

but two of the top four lost today.

#3 Alabama and #4 Penn State are no longer among the unbeaten teams. Will they both exit the top four? Obviously, unbeaten #5 Clemson will rise to the #3 spot. There’s no mystery there.

But which team will be #4? Will the committee keep Alabama in the #4 spot? Will it be Georgia? Oklahoma? Oregon? The upstart Minnesota? Stay tuned.

These are not poll rankings, but the official committee rankings that ultimately determine the four playoff teams.

Surprise #1 – Clemson is not in the top four. That doesn’t really matter. They will be in the big four next week, because Alabama and LSU play one another, so one of them will drop to fifth or lower. If Clemson keeps winning, they will make the playoff.

Surprise #2 – The committee did not place either Alabama or LSU in the top spot, but awarded it to THE Ohio State University. That assessment agrees with the computers, but not with the polls. The sportswriters place LSU #1 and the coaches are going with ‘Bama. None of that really matters. Determining the order of the top three at the beginning of November is purely for academic exercises and barroom debates. The only thing that matters during the season is whether a team makes the top four after the final week. And the only thing that matters after that is what happens head-to-head.

Not really a surprise – The committee didn’t rank Baylor and Minnesota, two undefeated teams, as high as the polls did. Not to worry. If Minnesota beats Penn State this weekend, they will rise like towels in a public bath, while Baylor will get the same chance later in the year against Oklahoma.

The biggest news of the week is that the Pats got their asses handed to them by the Ravens, leaving the Niners as the only undefeated team.

Meanwhile, the Dolphins’ win leaves the Bengals as the only winless team.

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In other pigskin news, Alabama has been installed as a fairly solid betting favorite in their match-up with LSU Saturday. The line is six and a half points. They are the top two teams in the country, both undefeated. LSU is #1, but they will be on the road.

There will be another match-up of undefeated teams next weekend, as the traditional powerhouse squad at #5 Penn State will take on the upstarts from #13 Minnesota. Although Penn State will be on the road, they have been installed as 6.5 point favorites.

Just in passing – Sagarin’s computer system is having nothing of this LSU-Alabama battle for #1. His computer says that the top team in the nation is THE Ohio State University, and by a very comfortable margin.