Morning Consult publishes a poll every Monday. Their last two were taken just before and just after the debates.
It’s interesting to see how the polls change, as compared to how the results were interpreted by “experts.” The experts were correct about Kamala Harris having made a good showing. She jumped from 6% to 12%. She took pretty much all of her new support away from Biden, who was the debates’ big loser. That seemed to be her exact strategy, so chalk up a win for her.
Except for Biden, the only other candidate to gain or lose more than 1 point was Beto, who dropped from 4 to an even less significant 2.
I consider Hickenlooper to have finished second in the debates, because Harris was the only candidate to gain ground, so Hickenlooper, by remaining unchanged, therefore finished in a five-way tie for the second-best result. You might argue that he simply went from zero to zero, but that’s just nitpicking.
There was one thing that surprised me. Elizabeth Warren was essentially unchanged. In fact she actually dropped a point, from 13 to 12, but that change could not be statistically significant. That has to be disappointing for her. She and the experts all felt she did well.
Here the are candidates ranked by their change from the previous poll:
Candidate Post-Debate Score (Change)
Kamala Harris 12 (+6)
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John Hickenlooper 0 (NC)
Bernie Sanders 19 (NC)
Cory Booker 3 (NC)
Andrew Yang 2 (NC)
Steve Bullock 1 (NC)
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Elizabeth Warren 12 (-1)
Pete Buttigieg 6 (-1)
Beto O’Rourke 2 (-2)
Joe Biden 33 (-5)
Despite being in 9th place in this poll out of the 24 current candidates, Gov. Bullock was not even invited to the two debates. He did get a special opportunity from Stephen Colbert, who gave Bullock a ton of exposure – his own personal debate! Colbert gave him a chance to discuss policy as well as an opportunity to show that he is a good sport.
