Biden’s lead over Trump increases to 16 points

And that lead is 26 points among independent voters.

Most shocking, Biden and Sanders now lead Trump among white voters! That is a very big deal. In the history of national exit polls, 1972 to the present, no Democratic candidate has ever won the white vote over the Republican! (Bill Clinton came very close, but those results were polluted by third party candidates.) In the past five elections, no Democrat has come within 10 points of winning the white vote.

I should note that polls taken so far from the election have approximately zero predictive power. They indicate how the election might go if held today, within their margin of error of course, but public support for candidates is volatile.

Plus Biden may not get the nomination. The various polls seem to present us with conflicting views. Despite Biden’s fading numbers in other polls, this Quinnipiac poll shows Biden far in the lead, with 32% preference, compared to 19% for Pocahontas and 15% for Bernie. Warren has risen steadily from 4% in March to her current 19%. Kamala Harris started in the 7-8 range in March, and zoomed to 20 after the first debate. She was a serious contender there for a while, in a close second place on July 2, with essentially all of her new-found support coming from former Biden supporters, but then she plummeted right back to the 7-8 range after the second debate. Sic transit gloria mundi.

On the other hand, even without Biden in the race, Trump is looking weak. In all match-ups against the top five candidates, Trump is fixed at 38-40% of the vote. The support for the Democrat varies, but even Mayor Pete is nine points ahead.


Why is Trump falling behind? In a nutshell, (1) the Dems are cutting into Trump’s best demo – uneducated whites, and (2) there is a major shift in Americans’ view of the economy.

Both Biden and Sanders are starting to cut into “uneducated whites.” Biden only loses that demo by six points, and Bernie by only five. The female candidates and Mayor Pete don’t fare as well with that group. (Warren -11, Harris and Buttigieg -13.) As a result, Sanders and Biden are now beating Trump among all white people, although the other three Democratic candidates still lose the white demo.

The President still gets his highest grades for his handling of the economy, but for the first time, there is a vulnerability even there. “For the first time since President Trump was elected, more voters say that the national economy is getting worse than getting better, with 37 percent saying it is getting worse, 31 percent saying it is getting better, and 30 percent saying it is staying the same. This compares to a June 11, 2019 poll in which 23 percent of voters said that the national economy is getting worse, 39 percent said it is getting better, and 37 percent said it is staying the same.” In order to manage this narrative, the President needs to find a satisfactory resolution to his tariff war with China.