“Tracking Trump: The President’s Standing Across America”

Morning Consult has a unique system that attempts to track Presidential popularity by state. The most interesting feature is that you can move a slider to see how it changes from time to time.

I would not place total faith in the state numbers because the entire poll consists of only 5000 people, which is a solid national sampling, but indicates that the portrait of each state must be based on a small sample. A small sample can have some value if it is massaged carefully for age, gender, political leanings and so forth, but the numbers should still be viewed only as a broad indicator rather than an accurate measurement. Think of it as taking the temperature by standing outside rather than by consulting a scientific thermometer. You know for sure that it’s getting cooler, but you don’t know exactly how much.

To be fair, Morning Consult’s statisticians claim that their regressions are so accurate that no state has a MOE greater than 4% in the latest poll. I remain at least a bit skeptical.